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Thread: Fumbling and RB position

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Thx.

    I feel like I could hit it out of the park with better data. Maybe start a consulting side hustle. Maybe I will...

    I love this ish.
    You really need to get on clubhouse hawg.
    The Plan at the moment:

    Draft: Trade a 3rd and 6th this year to a team to move up and get a 2nd next year (this will happen).

    Players I want:
    Jake Ferguson (Jake Butt) or Jelani Woods or Jeremy Ruckert or Cade Otten (owen daniels) at TE- All 4th rd or later.
    Troy Anderson LB 3rd/4th rd (yay Timmy!)
    Neil Farrell, JR DL- run stuffer- bye purcell

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    You really need to get on clubhouse hawg.
    I don't understand the appeal of clubhouse. Why tf would I want to have voice chats withb complete randos?

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    I don't understand the appeal of clubhouse. Why tf would I want to have voice chats withb complete randos?

    If you think its the audio version of this forum then that is why you do not understand the appeal.


    For someone that is a business person or waning to be, etc. It is changing the world. I have a deal in place with tyrese gibson (dude from fast and furious), I had a conversation with paris hilton- we did not colab on anything but the door is now open. Les brown, tony robbins, grant cardone people pay thousands to be a part of their masterminds. Ive been a part of them for free. I have signed a deal with Barry Osborne Matrix and Lord of RIngs- 20 mil.- no I am not going to be in the film. No I did not make 20 mil. I have about 50 new leads every day. I have been on it for 5 weeks now- 1 week I was in Jamaica and I have 2k followers. That is a lot. That is good and easy to monetize. So on and so forth. Rachel Starr is a porn star- she follows me because I gave her great advise and I will be selling her and hopefully her peeps on things when Covid goes away. I just got back from Vegas 3 days ago closing a deal with some heavy hitters.

    SR knows not what he speaks- Clubhouse is the single biggest game changer- ever. Without a doubt. Hands down. If you work for someone else or something then it may not be for you. If you like learning or improving yourself then it may be. I cannot tell you how much free stuff I have gotten from it too. People sending me Shirts, masks, handle of rum and some fireball, these things on the back of phones, food. So on and so forth.
    The Plan at the moment:

    Draft: Trade a 3rd and 6th this year to a team to move up and get a 2nd next year (this will happen).

    Players I want:
    Jake Ferguson (Jake Butt) or Jelani Woods or Jeremy Ruckert or Cade Otten (owen daniels) at TE- All 4th rd or later.
    Troy Anderson LB 3rd/4th rd (yay Timmy!)
    Neil Farrell, JR DL- run stuffer- bye purcell

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  5. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    And the entire premise is the same for all offensive skill positions. WR, TE, RB- and IMO moreso QB. QBs are the ones that should not turn the ball over ever!
    QB fumble rate is worth a lot of investigation. Like you say, they are all important.

    One thing that makes a RB fumble a bit more of a sore spot is the idea that a running play is a game-control play. You are ok with no gain. You are pissed about a TFL but oh well. You expect to keep the chains moving. And the clock. You da boss. It's a close game, or it's a game you are winning by 10 points. Just need to salt it away.

    Get mah drift? You tend to have a high running play % when the game is within a score or so. Or when well ahead. You trust your defense, just want to keep on keepin on.

    Remember Kub in '16? Those games were close, like in '15. Dude just wanted to keep shit close, keep the score close.

    He did.

    But when the team got behind, damn if it didn't all fall apart--the pass rush became way less valuable, it forced a weaker QB to push for a win, etc.

    So in that context, when the game is close in the 2d quarter and you have a RB fumble (that is lost as often recovered)...that might be the straw to break the back. (but hey, like you say, same can be said for a QB sack/fumble and WR fumble...fumble is fumble..just that you especially expect the RB in that sitch to keep the rock...and damn if a lot of these games are decided by 7 points or less)

    ....

    (food for thought)

    ...

    Ultimately, you'd like to have a conversion chart that tells you that a RB fumble-per-touch is worth -X._ yards-per-touch. Then you compare RB1 with 5.0 ypc and RB2 with 4.0 ypc and conclude that RB2 is the better back. That's my hunch.
    Last edited by Hawgdriver; 02-17-2021 at 01:52 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

  6. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Thx.

    I feel like I could hit it out of the park with better data. Maybe start a consulting side hustle. Maybe I will...

    I love this ish.
    or give pro football focus or pro football outsiders a call.

  7. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    If you think its the audio version of this forum then that is why you do not understand the appeal.


    For someone that is a business person or waning to be, etc. It is changing the world. I have a deal in place with tyrese gibson (dude from fast and furious), I had a conversation with paris hilton- we did not colab on anything but the door is now open. Les brown, tony robbins, grant cardone people pay thousands to be a part of their masterminds. Ive been a part of them for free. I have signed a deal with Barry Osborne Matrix and Lord of RIngs- 20 mil.- no I am not going to be in the film. No I did not make 20 mil. I have about 50 new leads every day. I have been on it for 5 weeks now- 1 week I was in Jamaica and I have 2k followers. That is a lot. That is good and easy to monetize. So on and so forth. Rachel Starr is a porn star- she follows me because I gave her great advise and I will be selling her and hopefully her peeps on things when Covid goes away. I just got back from Vegas 3 days ago closing a deal with some heavy hitters.

    SR knows not what he speaks- Clubhouse is the single biggest game changer- ever. Without a doubt. Hands down. If you work for someone else or something then it may not be for you. If you like learning or improving yourself then it may be. I cannot tell you how much free stuff I have gotten from it too. People sending me Shirts, masks, handle of rum and some fireball, these things on the back of phones, food. So on and so forth.
    I guess that seems cool for your line of work. Probably just a matter of time before trolls ruin/overrun it like with the rest of social media though.

  8. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    I guess that seems cool for your line of work. Probably just a matter of time before trolls ruin/overrun it like with the rest of social media though.
    They try. They get an automatic ban and the person who invited them gets an automatic ban too. They get sorted quickly. I had a convo with 5 billionaires last night. Five. Billion w a B!

    I dont care what line of work someone is in, thats a cool thing, a lot to be learned. No where else have I been able to chat with billionaire and ask them and learn from them and get the time of day even.
    The Plan at the moment:

    Draft: Trade a 3rd and 6th this year to a team to move up and get a 2nd next year (this will happen).

    Players I want:
    Jake Ferguson (Jake Butt) or Jelani Woods or Jeremy Ruckert or Cade Otten (owen daniels) at TE- All 4th rd or later.
    Troy Anderson LB 3rd/4th rd (yay Timmy!)
    Neil Farrell, JR DL- run stuffer- bye purcell

  9. #53
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    Geeks rule!
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

  10. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Geeks rule!
    Especially PFF amirite?!?

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  12. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoJoe View Post
    This didn't help either!

    This is a RB’s version of the Buttfumble.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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  14. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Do I need to make a strong case that ball security is the most vital attribute of a modern running back? Or are we already there. I can't read y'all's mind. MO? Jaded?

    I'm not even sure I'm right.

    Talk to me.
    You’re wrong.

    This opinion is all theoretical, of course, but I believe my math is sound.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

  15. The Following 2 Users High Fived Simple Jaded For This Post:


  16. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakaBasej View Post
    Well done my Bronco A-type brother!
    Quote Originally Posted by Softskull View Post
    Well done my Bronco A-type brother!
    We Bronco A-types need to stick together!
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

  17. #58
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    Follow up thoughts.

    Henry (Titans) and Kamara (Saints) are two good examples of average fumble rates--about 1 per 130 touches. Over a heavy usage, 400 touch season, that will be about 3 fumbles. 50 percent will be turnovers. The turnover will happen on the field in proportion to where RBs touch the ball, that is, more often in the middle 50 because that is where teams usually are. Considering a punt as the worst case, a lost fumble gives up 40 yards of field position. Counting the likely additional 15-20 yards any team will gain (average drive of 30-40 yards, but could be 1st, 2d, or 3d down, so average expected gain is halfish of that 35 or so), plus any defensive fumble return yardage.. it's about 60 yards of field lost with a lost RB fumble. Let's call it an automatic field goal--3 pts. Could be more, factoring in that some turnovers will lead to TDs, and some to nothing, but the instant, standalone point cost of a RB fumble lost is roughly 3 points.

    So a 130 per touch RB will, on average, give up 4.5 points over the season.

    Some RB fumble at higher (Gordon, 1 per 70, Cook, 1 per 75) or lower (Lindsay, 0 per 650, Hunt, 1 per 200) rates.

    A RB that fumbles at twice the rate of an 'average' RB will cost his team twice the points. So instead of 4.5 pts, it would be 9 points. A RB that fumbles twice less often, well, 2.25 points vs 4.5 points.

    Maybe that 7 point (over a season) difference doesn't seem like much. But in a 300 point season, that's 2 percent of your scoring offense. And some games will come down to that 3 point giveaway when the final score is close.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sting
    "You know cos I just lost my parents--both my parents died in the same year...to this day, people come up to me and say 'my dad died and that album really meant a lot to me,' which is very nourishing {pats heart} for a songwriter to hear that your songs have a utility beyond just their own solace, that it actually helps other people."

  18. #59
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    Would not the RBs TDs scored and overall production (total yards) not factor into this?


    Extremem example but if there was a RB that scored guaranteed at least 2 tds per game (there was LT) and lets just say that he fumbled 1x per game as well (lost and returned for a TD). The RBs net is still a positive 7 points.


    As you mentioned when games can be won or lost on 3 points. If the points are positive should they not outweigh or be factored in.


    (Its about time for Melvin to fumble. I have a feeling 2 of them may be on deck sadly)
    The Plan at the moment:

    Draft: Trade a 3rd and 6th this year to a team to move up and get a 2nd next year (this will happen).

    Players I want:
    Jake Ferguson (Jake Butt) or Jelani Woods or Jeremy Ruckert or Cade Otten (owen daniels) at TE- All 4th rd or later.
    Troy Anderson LB 3rd/4th rd (yay Timmy!)
    Neil Farrell, JR DL- run stuffer- bye purcell

  19. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    Would not the RBs TDs scored and overall production (total yards) not factor into this?


    Extremem example but if there was a RB that scored guaranteed at least 2 tds per game (there was LT) and lets just say that he fumbled 1x per game as well (lost and returned for a TD). The RBs net is still a positive 7 points.


    As you mentioned when games can be won or lost on 3 points. If the points are positive should they not outweigh or be factored in.


    (Its about time for Melvin to fumble. I have a feeling 2 of them may be on deck sadly)
    My reply to your last post in the Week 3 - News & Notes - Jets at Broncos:

    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    It’s always been my position that every TO negates the benefits of a TD. Of course an excessively ridged application of this principle would assume that all TOs have an equal impact on a game no matter where they occur on the field and at what point in the game. I wouldn’t take my position to that extent.
    I’m an Autistic Self-Advocate. If you have any questions about Autism/Asperger’s, feel free to ask. I’m not offended by any question asked by anyone who has a genuine desire to understand us better.

    https://aacphoenix.com/

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