The legal dispute is about when he is a UFA or a RFA. The question is whether time he spent on injury settlement tolled (delayed) his tenure as a QB, thus giving him less time served in the NFL, and therefore not eligible to become a UFA. Instead, the Bengals are contending that he's still a restricted FA, so they could give him a 1st round franchise tag (expected) and then deal his rights to some team. Any team that signed him would have to give up a #1 pick, but in practice this means some team would likely engage in negotiations with the Bengals and offer something less than that.
Perhaps a second round pick or even a 3rd rounder. The Bengals would probably not get a first rounder because other teams would know they have no intention of paying AJ McCarron AND Andy Dalton big QB money. Dalton is still the starter and they are apparently not considering replacing him with McCarron, so they have to deal him.
That severely limits their negotiating leverage. They will thus get something for McCarron in this scenario, but not a 1st rounder.
His contention is that the time he spent injured should be included as time served in the NFL and thus he's eligible for FA. Some experts think he has a decent chance before an arbiter of proving his point.
However, this is all academic to the Broncos. He's not coming here.
The thing about AJ McCarron is this: unless John Elway is convinced that McCarron is the answer and QB and is willing to forego using his #5 pick on a QB, McCarron will have no incentive to sign here. He wants to be given the starting job, and not have to compete with a top 10 rookie QB, whom the team would be under intense public scrutiny and pressure to play, because of how much draft capital they invested in him, that as soon as the rookie was ready, he would probably supplant McCarron.
At least that's what the NFL team that drafted him would be hoping (like the Broncos were hoping that Paxton Lynch would beat out Trevor for the starting job last year).
So, McCarron won't want to come here if Elway is planning to use his #5 pick on a QB - and he is.
The Broncos would not be willing to forego using their high draft pick on a QB if there is one they like available, and more to the point, they would be unwilling to guarantee to McCarron's agent that they were intending to sign McCarron to a long term deal and not get another QB to compete with him.
The Denver beat writers insist that the only QB Elway is likely to consider giving up the #5 pick for would be Kirk Cousins in the unlikely event the Redskins were willing to trade him. That would preclude them from taking a top 10 QB of course.
Since some teams are undoubtedly willing to commit to McCarron long term so he wouldn't be willing to come here unless Elway were willing to do the same. Of course the Broncos might trade for him but this is impractical if he doesn't want to come here.
In that case not only would he NOT mentor the Broncos rookie QB, but he would also refuse to re-sign with Denver, so they would be trading a 2nd round pick, say, for his rights for a year or two. You can't have a QB in the locker-room who really doesn't want to be there. It can't be good for leadership to have a disgruntled starting QB.
Dude, that just means that the Broncos are interested in coaching all the top QB prospects, especially those they have a chance of drafting: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The Browns are expected to draft Sam Darnold because he said he has no objection to going to Cleveland, while Josh Rosen said he doesn't want to go there.
The Giants are expected to take Rosen, because Eli is nearing the end of his career, and was benched by Ben McAdoo (causing McAdoo's firing). Neither Browns nor Giants are expected to be willing to trade those picks.
That leaves the Colts who don't need a QB at #3, followed by the Browns again (from Texans' #4 pick) then Denver. So, barring a trade (possible) Denver will have it's choice of any QB other than the top 2.
Last edited by Cugel; 01-12-2018 at 08:03 PM.
I don't think the Colts or Browns will be able to trade those picks to a QB hungry team. It's possible, but a move up to get Allen, Jackson or Mayfield? Those dudes might not turn out to be that great, and then you'd be the NY Jets trading up to #5 or whatever to get Mark Sanchez! Not a great moment in Jets history.
So, I think the Broncos will be set at #5 to take whoever they like outside Darnold or Rosen. Could be wrong of course, some desperate team might fall in love with Josh Allen or something and trade up to ensure they grab him ahead of the Broncos (assuming they liked him).
i think that's largely accurate. . . of course, the problem is that none of mayfield/allen/jackson is worth the #5 pick anymore than they're worth #3 or 4. . . we'll be reaching our arms off if we can't trade back, or trade back into the tail end of the 1st for one of them. . . teams do dumb things when they don't have QBs. . . it's a real challenge for elway and co. to stay disciplined, rather than ignoring everything else until that glaring need is filled. . . that's part of the appeal of going after kirk cousins, which i absolutely believe is their first choice. . .
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