Thread: '18 QB Prospects

Originally Posted by Slick

Ryan Leaf's? I know you ain't subtly saying the Duke. No effing way.

I think he means Ryan Mallett

I’m not saying he’s the next John Elway. I’m just referring to a handful of highlights, you bunch of cranky ninnies. He can drop 60 yard dimes on the move, and yes it reminds me of Elway. Let’s not forget, Elway had accuracy issues for about the first five years of his career.

Originally Posted by dogfish

yes, extremely. . .




i don't agree with this at all-- not even a little bit. . . so for fun, i'm gonna pull up the college career completion% of every QB who threw 25 or more passes in the NFL over the past two years-- let's see what it looks like. . .

69.4 -- case keenum
68.1 -- david fales
68.1 -- scott tolzien
67.6 -- sam bradford
67.5 -- mitch trubisky
67.5 -- cody kessler
67.4 -- deshaun watson
67.4 -- brett hundley
67.4 -- geno smith
67.1 -- robert griffin III
66.9 -- ej manuel
66.8 -- marcus mariota
66.8 -- nick foles
66.7 -- derek carr
66.3 - alex smith
66.0 -- jameis winston
65.9 -- kevin hogan
65.7 -- blake bortles
65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
65.4 -- cam newton
64.6 -- sean mannion
64.2 -- drew stanton
64.1 -- carson wentz
64.1 -- kirk cousins
64.1 -- matt barkley
63.8 -- aaron rodgers
63.6 -- philip rivers
63.6 -- landry jones
63.7 -- patrick mahomes
63.3 -- joe flacco
62.9 -- paxton lynch
62.8 -- dak prescott
62.7 -- bryce petty
62.3 -- jared goff
62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
62.3 -- tj yates
61.9 -- tom shady
61.7 -- andy dalton
61.1 -- drew brees
60.9 -- blaine gabbert
60.9 -- russell wilson
60.8 -- eli manning
60.7 -- deshone kizer
60.6 -- brock osweiler
60.6 -- matt cassel
60.4 -- mike glennon
60.1 -- nathan peterman
59.9 -- matt ryan
59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
59.5 -- jacoby brissett
59.1 -- carson palmer
58.9 -- trevor siemian
58.5 -- matt moore
58.2 -- colin kaepernick
58.1 -- cj beathard
57.5 -- connor cook
57.2 -- jay cutler
57.2 -- tyrod taylor
57.1 -- matt stafford
56.8 -- tom savage
55.8 -- brian hoyer
51.2 -- josh mccown
50.7 -- derek anderson

now, obviously, stats are far from the whole picture when evaluating college QBs-- we already know that. . . if there were one stat that was a reliable indicator of pro success, then we wouldn't have QBs busting left and right. . . but just a quick glance at this does clearly illustrates a few things. . . first and foremost, that high completion% in college most definitely doesn't guarantee success at the next level. . . the list is littered with busts and backups from the top to the bottom. . . however, we DO see that low completion % in college does tend to translate to low success rate. . . i personally would set the mendoza line @ 60.8 (eli, FTR). . . below that, you only find two real quality starters-- matt ryan and matt stafford. . . you can argue carson palmer, but he hasn't been special. . . most of what you find below that line are backups and bums. . .

now, for even more fun, i've added all the 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted over the past ten years, along with this year's top prospects. . . and also highlighted certain players-- current high end starters in elite orange, promising up and comers in yellow, failed high picks in green, and this year's draftees in red. . .

69.5 -- brandon weeden
69.4 -- case keenum
68.9 -- johnny manziel
68.5 -- baker mayfield
68.4 -- teddy bridgewater
68.3 -- luke falk
68.1 -- david fales
68.1 -- scott tolzien
67.6 -- sam bradford
67.5 -- mitch trubisky
67.5 -- cody kessler
67.4 -- deshaun watson
67.4 -- brett hundley
67.4 -- geno smith
67.1 -- robert griffin III
67.0 -- andrew luck
66.9 -- ej manuel
66.8 -- marcus mariota
66.8 -- nick foles
66.7 -- derek carr
66.4 -- tim tebow
66.3 - alex smith
66.0 -- jameis winston
65.9 -- kevin hogan
65.8 -- brian brohm
65.7 -- blake bortles
65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
65.4 -- cam newton
64.9 -- sam darnold
64.8 -- pat white
64.6 -- sean mannion
64.4 -- jake browning
64.3 -- mark sanchez
64.2 -- drew stanton
64.1 -- carson wentz
64.1 -- kirk cousins
64.1 -- matt barkley
63.8 -- aaron rodgers
63.6 -- philip rivers
63.7 -- patrick mahomes
63.6 -- landry jones
63.3 -- joe flacco
63.2 -- mason rudolph
62.9 -- paxton lynch
62.8 -- dak prescott
62.7 -- bryce petty
62.6 -- jimmy clausen
62.5 -- ryan tannehill
62.3 -- jared goff
62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
62.3 -- tj yates
61.9 -- tom shady
61.7 -- andy dalton
61.1 -- drew brees
60.9 -- blaine gabbert
60.9 -- russell wilson
60.8 -- eli manning
60.8 -- josh rosen

__________________________________________________ ________________________________________

60.7 -- deshone kizer
60.6 -- brock osweiler
60.6 -- matt cassel
60.4 -- mike glennon
60.1 -- nathan peterman
59.9 -- matt ryan
59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
59.7 -- chad henne
59.5 -- jacoby brissett
59.1 -- carson palmer
59.1 -- josh freeman
58.9 -- trevor siemian
58.5 -- matt moore
58.2 -- colin kaepernick
58.1 -- cj beathard
57.5 -- connor cook
57.2 -- jay cutler
57.2 -- tyrod taylor
57.1 -- matt stafford
57.0 -- lamar jackson
56.8 -- tom savage
56.2 -- josh allen
56.1 -- christian hackenburg
55.8 -- brian hoyer
54.0 -- jake locker
51.2 -- josh mccown
50.7 -- derek anderson

ultimately, this doesn't tell us anything about allen's future. . . a few other guys have overcome such low numbers to develop into quality NFL starters. . . not many, though-- allen's % really is borderline-historically low for modern era prospects. . . his % isn't just bad, it is downright jake locker-ish-- and if that doesn't give you real pause, i think maybe it should. . .


*stats from sportsreference.com

My issue with stats is it is career college stats. If you take their senior years it can paint a different story. My example Russell Wilson 72% completion his last year and an average of 60.9%

I would be more interested in QBR over completion %

Top 100 QBR college ranking



Rk Player Rate Year
▼ School
1 Baker Mayfield 198.90 2017 Oklahoma
2 McKenzie Milton 179.29 2017 UCF
3 Mason Rudolph 170.56 2017 Oklahoma State
4 Drew Lock 165.67 2017 Missouri
5 Baker Mayfield* 196.39 2016 Oklahoma
6 Logan Woodside* 183.33 2016 Toledo
7 Mike White* 181.39 2016 Western Kentucky
8 Zach Terrell* 175.24 2016 Western Michigan
9 Nick Stevens* 171.31 2016 Colorado State
10 Ryan Higgins* 168.57 2016 Louisiana Tech
11 Jake Browning* 167.52 2016 Washington
12 Vernon Adams* 179.08 2015 Oregon
13 Brandon Doughty* 176.49 2015 Western Kentucky
14 Baker Mayfield* 173.32 2015 Oklahoma
15 Kevin Hogan* 171.03 2015 Stanford
16 Brandon Allen* 166.48 2015 Arkansas
17 Matt Johnson* 164.19 2015 Bowling Green State
18 Marcus Mariota* 181.74 2014 Oregon
19 J.T. Barrett* 169.83 2014 Ohio State
20 Brandon Doughty* 167.11 2014 Western Kentucky
21 Cody Kessler* 167.05 2014 USC
22 Garrett Grayson* 166.22 2014 Colorado State
23 Zach Terrell* 164.41 2014 Western Michigan
24 Jameis Winston* 184.84 2013 Florida State
25 Bryce Petty* 174.29 2013 Baylor
26 Johnny Manziel* 172.88 2013 Texas A&M
27 Zach Mettenberger* 171.45 2013 LSU
28 Teddy Bridgewater* 171.14 2013 Louisville
29 Tajh Boyd* 168.69 2013 Clemson
30 Marcus Mariota* 167.66 2013 Oregon
31 A.J. McCarron* 167.17 2013 Alabama
32 A.J. McCarron* 175.28 2012 Alabama
33 Aaron Murray* 174.82 2012 Georgia
34 David Fales* 170.76 2012 San Jose State
35 Tajh Boyd* 165.59 2012 Clemson
36 Russell Wilson* 191.78 2011 Wisconsin
37 Robert Griffin III* 189.48 2011 Baylor
38 Kellen Moore* 175.19 2011 Boise State
39 Case Keenum* 174.03 2011 Houston
40 Andrew Luck* 169.69 2011 Stanford
41 Terrance Owens* 169.24 2011 Toledo
42 Kellen Moore* 182.63 2010 Boise State
43 Cam Newton* 182.05 2010 Auburn
44 Andrew Luck* 170.16 2010 Stanford
45 Greg McElroy* 168.98 2010 Alabama
46 Andy Dalton* 166.48 2010 Texas Christian
47 Scott Tolzien* 165.92 2010 Wisconsin
48 Tim Tebow* 164.17 2009 Florida
49 Sam Bradford* 180.84 2008 Oklahoma
50 David Johnson* 178.69 2008 Tulsa
51 Colt McCoy* 173.75 2008 Texas
52 Tim Tebow* 172.37 2008 Florida
53 Zac Robinson* 166.84 2008 Oklahoma State
54 Mark Sanchez* 164.64 2008 USC
55 Sam Bradford* 176.53 2007 Oklahoma
56 Tim Tebow* 172.46 2007 Florida
57 Colt Brennan* 185.96 2006 Hawaii
58 John Beck* 169.05 2006 Brigham Young
59 JaMarcus Russell* 167.03 2006 LSU
60 Rudy Carpenter* 175.01 2005 Arizona State
61 Brian Brohm* 166.73 2005 Louisville
62 Stefan Lefors* 181.74 2004 Louisville
63 Alex Smith* 176.52 2004 Utah
64 Jason Campbell* 172.89 2004 Auburn
65 Omar Jacobs* 167.20 2004 Bowling Green State
66 Philip Rivers* 170.49 2003 North Carolina State
67 Ben Roethlisberger* 165.84 2003 Miami (OH)
68 Matt Leinart* 164.45 2003 USC
69 Rex Grossman 170.75 2001 Florida
70 Wes Counts 166.63 2001 Middle Tennessee State
71 Jeff Smoker* 166.39 2001 Michigan State
72 David Carr* 165.91 2001 Fresno State
73 Ryan Dinwiddie 164.69 2001 Boise State
74 Byron Leftwich 164.57 2001 Marshall
75 Bart Hendricks 170.63 2000 Boise State
76 Joe Hamilton 175.00 1999 Georgia Tech
77 Chad Pennington 171.41 1999 Marshall
78 Michael Vick* 171.08 1999 Virginia Tech
79 Shaun King* 178.71 1998 Tulane
80 Daunte Culpepper 170.24 1998 UCF
81 Akili Smith* 167.30 1998 Oregon
82 Tim Rattay 164.76 1998 Louisiana Tech
83 Cade McNown* 166.01 1997 UCLA
84 Steve Sarkisian 173.56 1996 Brigham Young
85 Danny Wuerffel 170.61 1996 Florida
86 Billy Blanton 169.55 1996 San Diego State
87 Danny Wuerffel 178.41 1995 Florida
88 Kerry Collins 172.85 1994 Penn State
89 Trent Dilfer* 167.20 1993 Fresno State
90 Dave Barr* 164.47 1993 California
91 Ty Detmer 168.51 1991 Brigham Young
92 Ty Detmer 175.64 1989 Brigham Young
93 Don McPherson 164.30 1987 Syracuse
94 Vinny Testaverde 165.79 1986 Miami (FL)
95 Steve Young 168.45 1983 Brigham Young
96 Jim McMahon 176.87 1980 Brigham Young
97 Dave Wilson 164.17 1977 Ball State
98 Brian Dowling 165.77 1968 Yale
99 Jerry Rhome 172.60 1964 Tulsa
100 Bob Berry 164.04 1963 Oregon


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...er-season.html

I'd prefer Allen over Mayfield if it's between the two.

Falk over both.

Originally Posted by NightTerror218

My issue with stats is it is career college stats. If you take their senior years it can paint a different story. My example Russell Wilson 72% completion his last year and an average of 60.9%

I would be more interested in QBR over completion %

allen's % was 56.0 last year, and 56.3 this year. . .

Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.

Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.

Originally Posted by Ziggy

Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.

Tell me about him

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.

Originally Posted by Ziggy

Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.

Originally Posted by underrated29

Tell me about him

Tell me as well

Originally Posted by dogfish

allen's % was 56.0 last year, and 56.3 this year. . .

Chad Kelly, in his junior year had 458 attempts, had a 65% and 13 ints in the SEC.

Josh Allen in his only full season had 373 attempts, completed 56% and threw 15 ints...in the Mountain West conference.

Huh...what should we make of that? Nothing?

Rosen or Allen.

Advocacy for anyone else means you don’t get to bitch about the Next Paxton Lynch in 2 short years.

Originally Posted by Jaded

Rosen or Allen.

Advocacy for anyone else means you don’t get to bitch about the Next Paxton Lynch in 2 short years.

First everyone going to bitch no matter who Denver picks. Rosen is most pro-ready passer in this draft and it’s not even close. Allen might have more physical upside, but Rosen is ready to step in and start game one. Rosen reminds me of Eli Manning, similiar throwing style and ability.

Originally Posted by elsid13

First everyone going to bitch no matter who Denver picks. Rosen is most pro-ready passer in this draft and it’s not even close. Allen might have more physical upside, but Rosen is ready to step in and start game one. Rosen reminds me of Eli Manning, similiar throwing style and ability.

Rosen is the only non-project.

Originally Posted by underrated29

Tell me about him

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

Tell me as well

OK. Rudolph has great size at 6'5 230. He didn't have a lot of talent around him at Oklahoma State. He has above average arm strength, but not a cannon. He can make all fo the throws though. He does very well when he sets his feet and gets his base under him. Footwork is definitely an issue that will need to be corrected at the next level. He can be inconsistent on short and intermediate throws. Rudolph shows fearlessness in the pocket. He'll wait for his receiver to come open knowing that the hit is coming as soon as he releases the pass. There are two things that he does very well. 1. He throws a great deep ball. He might be the best deep ball passer in this draft, (when he has time to set his feet). 2. He throws a great touch pass. He doesn't throw with the same velocity on all of his passes. He can drop it in the basket. He's probably more mobile than he gets credit for, but he's a pocket QB. While he's very good at stepping up into the pocket, he will hold onto the ball too long at times.

I'll show you his two worst games from 2017. Oklahoma and TCU. In these two games, you can see his inconsistency in short and intermediate accuracy. You also see that missing 'sixth sense' about pressure coming from behind. Very few QB's have that.






Now let's take a look at two of his better games. Once this guy gets his rhythm, he can spin it as well as anyone in college.








As you can see, he's top flight QB when he sets his base. He's inconsistent when he can't. Footwork is something that can be coached. He's got plenty of arm strength, decent vision, and can get the ball downfield. He's nowhere near as polished as Darnold or Rosen. I think he's a sleeper that will take his lumps for the first year or two, but can develop into a pro bowl caliber QB.