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Thread: Head-scratching logic can hurt

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    Default Head-scratching logic can hurt

    Krieger:
    By Dave Krieger
    Denver Post Columnist
    Posted: 12/14/2009 01:00:00 AM MST
    Updated: 12/14/2009 01:23:45 AM MST


    INDIANAPOLIS — Give Josh McDaniels this. He is nothing if not innovative.

    Convinced that trying to start fast against the Colts hadn't worked for anybody else, he brought a different strategy to Indy on Sunday:

    Start slow.

    I am not making this up.

    "Everybody talks about, 'You've got to start fast and get ahead.' I don't really believe that because that hasn't worked for anybody all year," McDaniels said after the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning interceptions to improve to 13-0 and set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory.

    So, when the Broncos won the opening coin toss, McDaniels elected to kick off, deferring to the second half the Broncos' opportunity to take the ball.

    "I wanted to maybe take a shot at scoring right before the half and then getting the ball back in the third quarter, and if you get a 10-, 14-point swing in that situation, you put yourself in a good spot and their offense hadn't played football if you could do that," he explained afterward.

    Unfortunately, the Colts adopted the opposite strategy.

    "We got off to a fast start like we wanted to," said their coach, Jim Caldwell.

    "My points of emphasis were obviously to get off to a good start," Manning said.

    In fact, the Broncos had run only three plays from scrimmage when the Colts went ahead 14-0, so both game plans were right on target.

    "It was a huge way to start," said the Colts' Dallas Clark. "I think that really put them in a chase mode and got them out of their offense early."

    McDaniels' pretzel logic was twisted beyond recognition when he got exactly the opportunity he wanted near the end of the first half. The Broncos had scored on their previous possession to cut the Colts' lead to 21-7.

    Had they put together an effective two-minute drill resulting in a touchdown, they would have been back in it, down by a single score with another possession coming to start the third quarter. In other words, precisely the scenario McDaniels envisioned.

    But instead of an aggressive two- minute drill with 1:41 showing, McDaniels called a running play, a screen pass, another running play and, on fourth-and-1, another running play. The third- and fourth- down runs were both stuffed, and the Broncos turned it over on downs. Why not run a two-minute drill in that situation?

    "The first thing is, you don't give the ball back to him," McDaniels said, referring to Manning. "If you do, it's one of the silliest mistakes you make. So if you start by throwing two incomplete passes and give him two minutes on the clock, you've made an error."

    So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make.

    In fairness to McDaniels, he's not the first coach Manning has driven to distraction. His mentor, Bill Belichick, famously went for it on fourth down from his own 28 because he didn't want to give the ball back to Manning. When the Patriots failed to convert, he gave Manning the ball back with a short field and lost the game.

    In McDaniels' case, the whole point of giving Manning the ball to start the game was to set up the scenario he got just before halftime. Then he decided not to make aggressive use of it because he was afraid of giving the ball to Manning.

    Explaining his decision, McDan- iels mentioned he had won the toss and deferred previously this season "for the same reason." The only previous instance I recall was at Oakland, which was a radically different situation.

    The Raiders featured the worst starting quarterback in the NFL at the time in JaMarcus Russell. Giving them the ball pretty much assured you better field position when you got it back than you would have had taking the opening kickoff.

    Giving the ball to Peyton Manning is about as different a decision as it could possibly be. And it demonstrates how Manning can short- circuit the logic of even the most confident coaches.

    McDaniels actually convinced himself that trying to start fast hadn't worked for other clubs, so he would go a different direction. Now we know how that worked.

    McDaniels said afterward he wouldn't change the decision. The loss, of course, was all about poor execution, too many mistakes, by the players.

    But the truth is their coach didn't help them. On a day when Manning threw three picks, the Broncos made it easy for him. They beat themselves.

    Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297 or dkrieger@denverpost.com or twitter.com/DaveKrieger

    Manning was missing

    After jumping out to a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, through their first possession of the fourth Sunday, Colts QB Peyton Manning all but disappeared against Denver, going 3-for-15 for 21 yards and three interceptions. A lookat those possessions:

    Second

    Start Cm Att Yds Result


    IND 19 1 3 6 Punt
    IND 46 1 2 4 Int.


    Third

    IND 19 0 2 0 Punt
    IND 11 1 2 11 Int.
    IND 14 0 2 0 Punt
    IND 32 0 1 0 Int.


    Fourth

    IND 20 0 3 0 Punt

    http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_13991252

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    the 4-2 defense was a nightmare. Why not simply line up your 3-4 which has helped get you to this point and Peyton struggles with and see what happens.

    The entire Indy game was a complete debacle!

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    it sucks, but i actually think that nolan outsmarted himself with a new look. why do something new when what you've been doing has been working fairly well?

    can't criticize the guy too much though... he's a huge part of the reason we're looking towards the playoffs. but i do think it was a mistake (one that his defense clearly did everything they possibly could to make up for IMO).


    also, again... DEFERRING THE OPENING KICKOFF HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH US LOSING THE GAME.
    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    I don't know much about anything. In fact, I am one of the dumbest people alive.

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    "...So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make..."

    This line made me chuckle.
    (the previous comment was not directed at any particular individual and was not intended to slander,disrespect or offend any reader of said statement)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ravage!!! View Post
    "...So giving Manning the ball to start the game is clever and imaginative, but giving it to him about 90 minutes later is one of the silliest mistakes you make..."

    This line made me chuckle.
    i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

    i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

    after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

    if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

    if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

    all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden )
    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    I don't know much about anything. In fact, I am one of the dumbest people alive.

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    Our defense gave our offense several opportunties to get back into this game but the offense failed to deliver. Mcd was outcoached yet again and our short yardage running game continues to be among the worst in the league. Turning the ball over on downs and failing to convert KILLED us. I pin both on Mcd.....

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    Im still waiting to see the offensive genius part.
    Thanks MO for the wicked Sig.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shawshank24 View Post
    i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

    i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

    after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

    if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

    if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

    all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden )
    100% agree and I have thought this way for a very, very long time. I would always want the ball to begin the second half for precisely the reasons you stated above. Games are won and loss in the SECOND HALF, not on the first possesion of the game.
    [

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    We cant score on our opening drive anyway.

    Thanks MO for the wicked Sig.

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    I think it was the smart idea. Problem is, our offense just wasn't able to execute.

    If we get a first down or two at the end of the half, McD can open it up a little more and maybe at least get a FG before half. The refs didn't help out there either. . .1st two plays of that last drive and I think we had 25 yards of penalties.

    Then, receiving the kick in the 2nd helps with momentum. . .but again we went three and out.

    We've just got to execute better on our offensive drives.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne View Post
    I think it was the smart idea. Problem is, our offense just wasn't able to execute.

    If we get a first down or two at the end of the half, McD can open it up a little more and maybe at least get a FG before half. The refs didn't help out there either. . .1st two plays of that last drive and I think we had 25 yards of penalties.

    Then, receiving the kick in the 2nd helps with momentum. . .but again we went three and out.

    We've just got to execute better on our offensive drives.
    Ive never seen such a predictable offense. Ever.
    Thanks MO for the wicked Sig.

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    Quote Originally Posted by claymore View Post
    Ive never seen such a predictable offense. Ever.
    You must not have been watching the Broncos the last 6 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike View Post
    You must not have been watching the Broncos the last 6 years.
    I guess you are right. This offense defies all logic.
    Thanks MO for the wicked Sig.

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    I'm sorry but anyone who pins this loss on Nolan and the defense then well um never mind.

    TEBOW Bringing back the hb pass since 2012

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    Quote Originally Posted by shawshank24 View Post
    i just said this in the other thread, but i'll repeat since it's here too.

    i see tons of logic in kicking off to start the game. at that point, both teams are 0-0, so receiving or kicking has little meaning in terms of advantage or momentum.

    after the half, however, odds are that one team will either be ahead or trailing, and now momentum and advantage are there to be had.

    if you are trailing after the half, receiving the kick gives you the first opportunity to get points, and catch up and regain momentum.

    if you are ahead after the half, it gives you a chance to continue your momentum and pile on to your existing lead.

    all-in-all it's probably generally a wash, but i'd rather give the other team the ball to start the game, and get a free possession later when i can use it to maintain or regain momentum. (i always elect to kick on madden )
    Every point you are making can be countered by a point by putting the ball into your SCORING team's hands. So what you are saying that at the coin flip, teams should ALWAYS choose to kick?

    Doesn't scoring on the opening drive set the pace? For if the team doesn't score in return, and you get the ball back.. you can be two scores UP (or in the case of the Indy Colts, THREE) before the other team puts any points on the board. Scoring on the openind drive IMMEDIATELY puts the other team in 'catch up' mode. Doesn't yet mean you force them to pass on every down, but then being 14 points down early puts pressure on your offense. Getting down 21 points (especially for our offfense)... is a game killer.
    (the previous comment was not directed at any particular individual and was not intended to slander,disrespect or offend any reader of said statement)

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