Thread: BREAKIN' IT DOWN, WEEK 1 vs. BUFFALO

some good posts in here guys, thanks for the resposnes! unfortunately i don't have time right now to get back atcha-- hopefully sometime before i leave for the weekend. . .


jav, good to see you over here man. . . .

Originally Posted by columbiaskinny

IMO, for us offensively, i beleive this game will come down to Jay Cutler. Everyone in the world knows this will be only Jays 6th start as an NFL QB and the Bills will stack 8 men in the box to stop Henry and put the game on Jays shoulders.

Protecting Jay from a great pass rusher on Schobel and disguised blitzes to confuse Jay will be key.Another reason i beleive Perry Fewell, the D-Coord, will do everthing he can to force us to keep the ball in Jays hands. Including throwing in the kitchen sink to stop Henry.

honestly, i don't necessarily think that jay has to go out there and throw for 350+ yards and 2-3 TDs for us to win-- IMO the key will be making quick reads and decisive throws when we pass on 1st down. . . that will keep us in manageable down-and-distance situations where henry can be effective, because i'm confident that he's the kind of physical back who can grind out some yardage even against stacked fronts-- 8 men in the box isn't impossible to run against, just difficult. . .

how healthy and ready is Lepsis??

we shall see, but it may be overly optimistic to expect him to be in top form coming off serious surgery, and a year-and-a-half removed from any real, extended playing time. . . as i said earlier, having graham does help a lot if lepsis isn't 100%. . .

I expect they will too df, in full anticipation to set up Lee evans. Luckly for us, their running game in the pre-season was as bad as our rushing defense.

We're very fortunate to playing this taem this early in the season on both sides of the ball (their run Off, our run Def,)This is the area of concern on our defense and will be our biggest challengelol, I agree with you 100% on this df.

i'd be a lot happier going into the season feeling that our run D was stout rather than hoping our opponent isn't strong in that area, but at this point i'll take what i can get. . .

I think one fo these 2 will be a key match up with Nique. An area that they will try and attack because of Bailey and Bly.

It will be interesting to see how Bates plays the secondary when Buff. goes to 3 wide-out sets.

i'm not a hundred percent positive, but i believe that foxworth will primarily be matched against roscoe parrish out of the slot, as i don't believe he lines up outside very often. . . i'm not familiar enough with the bills to say for sure, but i think price and reed will split the #2 duties based on formation and situation, while parrish will generally be the 3rd in 3-wide sets. . .

He has improved alot since the early part of last season and seems to be finally coming around to being the QB the Bills had hoped when they got him.
His is nothing to take lightly and when get them in 3rd and long situations, we have to be able to apply pressure and get him flustered.

from what i've seen of losman, i almost think he is more dangerous out of the pocket-- he throws well on the run, and while he's not a big-play danger rushing, he definitely has the speed to take off and pick up first downs, and he won;'t hesitate. . . i'd like to see us contain him as much as possible, but there's that nasty little thing about having little interior pass rush. . . i know bates prioritizes getting upfield for the ends, but if they sell out and don't bother to maintain lane discipline, losman will probably break off a few runs. . .

Good point about Lynchs receiving ability. It's what stood out the most to me about him on film that i have seen on him. Really nice hands.
But i feel completely comfortable with Gold on him when he comes out of the backfeild on pasing routes.

i think gold is one of the best LBs in the league at covering RBs out of the backfield, but the coverage of our LBs in general is a big concern to me right now-- they really looked bad in preseason. . . it's never been a particular strength of dj's, and webster has played MIKE in past starting stints. . . little dump-offs in the flat hurt us in preseason, and the guys need to be more alert and get up and tackle the ballcarrier on those. . . sitting at home with a limited view of the field it's hard (at least for me!) to say if it's blown assignments, bad coverage or what, but regardless they need to tighten it up before it bites us in the ass. . .

And i truly beleive not that it's game time and the wins and losses matter . . . that dog will hunt!

i wish i felt as confident, but there's no doubt that the talent level is there. . .

Originally Posted by rcsodak

Great read, dog....you missed your calling.

I've heard from some analysts that have watched their practices, that their Oline is pretty sucky right now. This could be the perfect time for denver's Dline to work out their kinks without getting killed. *fingers crossed*

Isn't the middle of the field open, in a cover-2? Stokely could have a field day, or the TE's.....

the middle does tend to be open, and i fully expect to see stokley (or possibly chef) get some opportunities there on drags and other crossing patterns. . . hopefully walker as well, as he's a very impressive open-field runner. . .

Originally Posted by Javalon

Lots to read and I'm just going to respond to things as I read through:

I found it interesting that both Henry and Lynch underwhelmed with their starting offenses this preseason. While on fewer carries, Henry averaged a whopping 3.5 ypc. Lynch was even worse at dismal 1.7 ypc. (I didn't watch every play of his but practically every one I did see had Lynch getting stuffed.)

Yeah, it was only preseason but the running games should take better advantage of the base defenses being played. And it's not like Denver runs a huge variety of running plays to begin with so I don't think that was an excuse. I'm not as worried about the Broncos because our line was very patchwork in front of Henry and we know we'll get back to being a top 10 running attack, at worst, and possibly back to a top 3 if our line gets healthy and jells.

Lynch, on the other hand, looked terrible in the preseason and I don't know how to explain it. Sure he's a rook but 1.7 ypc? Their other backs all looked a lot better. I doubt any other rookie backs looked that bad. By comparison, Selvin Young this year averaged 4.9 ypc and Mike Bell as a rookie averaged 5.3 ypc in the preseason.

This makes me wonder if Lynch doesn't fit their offense very well or if their offensive line is just struggling that much or what.

Anyway, I see the Broncos having a definite edge on the ground even though we're not sure what to expect from our defense.

i'm not the slightest, tiniest bit worried about henry-- he was ripping up san fran's starters, and dallas has the kind of big 3-4 front that's always given us problems. . . buffalo's front seven isn't close to dallas. . .

besides, as JR will be glad to tell you, henry over his career has a higher YPC average on carries 11-20 than he does 1-10, and he also has the highest YPC the three seasons he's had the most carries. . . he truly is a back who gets stronger with more work, and gets more yards once he's worn the D down with his punishing style. . . by the 4th quarter, their little defenders will want no part of him! he didn't have a real chance to establish himself in PS, but he's the least of my worries as long as his knee's right. . .

as for lynch. . . i do suspect that they don't neccesarily have all the right pieces for the type of running game he fits into best. . . i see him as a slasher who runs best outside, and would fit very well into the ZBS. . . and while i know they want to get more explosive in their running game, guys like fowler and dockery are better suited for straight-ahead power running with power traps and off-guard smashes and dives rather than sweeps and stretch plays. . . i still think lynch will do fine in this league, but hopefully they haven't figured it out yet. . . i hope our seemingly-porous run D doesn't volunteer to lend them a hand!

I worry about constant blitzes going after both the run and pass. During the preseason I didn't think we did the best job handling the blitz and they might decide to keep testing Cutler until he proves he can handle it.

i think it's inevitable that people will blitz a young QB until he proves that he can handle it. . . hopefully he at least knows where the hot read is. . . we'd be smart to run a few screens early to make them think twice about blitzing. . .

If they do bring a heavy dose of blitzes to rattle Jay, I'm wondering if they might not tell him to just throw some jump balls to whichever of Walker or Marshall has single coverage and/or the best match-up. Put the ball up a little high and let them go after it.

as long as we're past the 40 or 50, i think there could be a lot worse strategies! the "up for grabs" may not be elegant, but it worked pretty well for moss and culpepper all those years. . .

I don't know what to expect from Scheffler after his limited role during the preseason. But I think Stokley could have a big game if the O-line give Cutler time to throw. Really, I think Stokley will cause fits for opposing defenses all season long if he can stay healthy. I don't know if we've ever had a big season from a #3 receiver under Shanny but I think this could be the year. The Three Amigos Part Dos?

if marshall can give us solid production at the #2 spot, stokley is easily the best #3 we've had since shanahan has been here. . . and you're right about chef, it's hard to know what to expect-- if they don't think he's ready, nate jackson might be able to give us something as a receiving TE. . .

I started to gain confidence with our O-line as the season progressed. My biggest concern is with Myers. He was badly beaten a few times in the preseason and seemed to be the weakest link, although he also looked somewhat better against Cleveland. But overall I think they'll do a pretty good job and we just need to be prepared for the blitz.

yea, with the line in flux, just knowing their assigments can be as much a problem as execution. . .

I think there's a certain acceptance from the coaching staff of riskier throws by Cutler because of the potential payoff from his big arm. Gunslingers like Elway and Favre have usually averaged at least one INT per game and I won't be surprised if Cutler goes the same way. But he has to make enough big plays to make the occasional INT worthwhile.

this is very similar to what i've said on other occasions. . . cutler wasn't drafted to be a game manager type, you can go get someone like trent dilfer if that's what you want. . . jay is gonna sling it downfield and try to make plays-- i'm not concerned with him trying to be perfect and never make mistakes, i just want him to learn to pick his spots and know when it's okay to go for the gusto, and when to reign it in. . .

What concerns me right now is that Cutler never looked particularly sharp this preseason, or at least not consistently sharp. I really hope we aren't going to see the sophomore jinx at play. But I won't get too worried over preseason and won't panic unless it continues for the next few weeks.

realists know there are going to be fits and starts in the development of a young QB-- i think he'll play well enough, for the most part, to give us a chance to win. . . hopefully we can get the guys around him healthy and give the O as a whole a chance to settle into a groove. . . having henry to lean on will be crucial. . .

OMG, Guys! Dogfish! What are you doing? That's entirely too much effort to exhaust on the Buffalo Bills!

Lynch is struggling, he's not a pro-calibur running back at this time. Anthony Thomas scares nobody. Dwayne Wright is probably their biggest threat right now. Whooo.

Their O-line is mammoth, but they just manage to clog up their own running lanes as well. We'll just tell our fatties to get leverage, hold their ground, and play Lynch in the box the entire game.

They have one offensive threat in Lee Evans. Roll Ferguson over to help with coverage, and Evans is solved. Just jam him at the line, don't miss, and don't let him get over top (Ferguson's job).

The only guy that might be a challenge is Roscoe Parrish, but he'd be answered with a nickel defense, and Foxworth. He might make some plays, but if they run slants, Parrish will be knocked out before long.


The Buffalo defense is completely succeptable to draws. They have poor DTs and wide rushing DEs. The LB corps is ok, but they are small, and Henry and our FBs can pound them into submission. Also, with Dan Graham, I expect to alot of runs to our strong side, where he'll blow whichever DE out of his lane, giving Henry the option to follow the lead, where Posluszny will likely overpursue, or to cutback for ridiculous yardage. This isn't taking into account the questionable Buffalo secondary. Whitner is going to have to be committed to the run for them to have a prayer. This leaves Walker or Brandon with single coverage. Brandon is a giant mismatch (literally) for any of their midget CBs, as is Walker.


Crap, I rambled on too long as well, but we are going to stomp the living shit out of Buffalo, it won't even be close. We match up much too well against them. I think we rush for over 300 yards.

Really enjoyed your analysis overall, especially regarding your breakdown on their Cover 2 scheme: the strengths and weaknesses it has, along with how we should attack it.

Their run defense is still atrocious, like MUG said - we're going to stomp a whole in their ass and they won't walk straight for days. I think that the variations of the Cover 2 they will run might give Cutler some fits, but since we're going to blow a hole in their ass, it's not going to matter much anyways. The run game will be our savior, and I think if that's established - obviously Cutler will be able to make some plays. I'm really excited about our match-ups outside though too, but they could disguise their defenses a bit in variation to cause some confusion.

An excellent breakdown, and I'm seriously reconsidering posting what I had for the Beat up since you pretty much covered it all here.

I am a little worried about our pass protection though, as you mentioned with Schobel. He's one of the most underrated pass rushers in the game. It'll be interesting to see how we hold up. I'll have to catch the replay of the game most likely, since I probably will not be able to view it live.

Thanks again, enjoyed the read.

MUG, i wish i shared your confidence. . . i agree that we're the better team, and i agree that we will be able to run on them. . . however, i have very little confidence in our defense right now-- i don't trust dj williams at MIKE, and i won't believe that our D-line is better until i see them do it on the field. . . if buffalo can put together a few early drives of their own and prevent us from dominating the time of possesion, anything can happen after that. . .


besides, it's the season opener, and i've been dying to talk some REAL football. . . .

Originally Posted by Dream

Really enjoyed your analysis overall, especially regarding your breakdown on their Cover 2 scheme: the strengths and weaknesses it has, along with how we should attack it.

Their run defense is still atrocious, like MUG said - we're going to stomp a whole in their ass and they won't walk straight for days. I think that the variations of the Cover 2 they will run might give Cutler some fits, but since we're going to blow a hole in their ass, it's not going to matter much anyways. The run game will be our savior, and I think if that's established - obviously Cutler will be able to make some plays. I'm really excited about our match-ups outside though too, but they could disguise their defenses a bit in variation to cause some confusion.

An excellent breakdown, and I'm seriously reconsidering posting what I had for the Beat up since you pretty much covered it all here.

I am a little worried about our pass protection though, as you mentioned with Schobel. He's one of the most underrated pass rushers in the game. It'll be interesting to see how we hold up. I'll have to catch the replay of the game most likely, since I probably will not be able to view it live.

Thanks again, enjoyed the read.

Schobel is good, but he's going to be negated. Dan Graham will play the entire game, and we'll just make sure we move him to Schobel's side and audible our run play as needed.

We could easily go 2-TE set the vast majority of the game with Graham and Alexander and the Bills won't have an answer. They can't match up with Marshall whatsoever. Walker is vastly superior to any player in their secondary. And Whitner is going to have to play up against the run if we go with 2 TEs. Cutler is going to have to have a meltdown of epic proportions for us to lose this game.

Originally Posted by dogfish

MUG, i wish i shared your confidence. . . i agree that we're the better team, and i agree that we will be able to run on them. . . however, i have very little confidence in our defense right now-- i don't trust dj williams at MIKE, and i won't believe that our D-line is better until i see them do it on the field. . . if buffalo can put together a few early drives of their own and prevent us from dominating the time of possesion, anything can happen after that. . .


besides, it's the season opener, and i've been dying to talk some REAL football. . . .

LOL, I hear that! The offseason lasts way too long.



Anyway, I'm so confidant that I think we could fax the Bills our game plan, and they simply can't do anything about it. They can't match up against our offense if we play it relatively safe. Such as limiting Cutler to 20ish passes and running like nuts with a 2 blocking TE set.

And they have no running game. I agree our LBs are struggling right now, or at least DJ Williams is. That's fine. We can simply keep Lynch in the box the entire game because the Bills WRs are a one man gang, and our secondary is elite. I mean, they don't even have a pass catching TE to worry about.

With our new scheme, this might be the absolute best team for us to start the season against. If we played a good team, I'd be worried. As it stands, not even a smidgen.

Originally Posted by dogfish

honestly, i don't necessarily think that jay has to go out there and throw for 350+ yards and 2-3 TDs for us to win-- IMO the key will be making quick reads and decisive throws when we pass on 1st down. . . that will keep us in manageable down-and-distance situations where henry can be effective, because i'm confident that he's the kind of physical back who can grind out some yardage even against stacked fronts-- 8 men in the box isn't impossible to run against, just difficult.

lol, that's not what i'm saying df. That's asking way to much of Cutler but is exactly what Buffalo will be trying to do. Put the ball in his hands and force him to make plays.

I'm talking more along the lines of his completion percentage and turnovers (or lack there of).

Cutler is'nt going to have to light it up! But he is going to be have to be very effecient. That being IF they are able to contain Hnenry which is a BIG if.

we shall see, but it may be overly optimistic to expect him to be in top form coming off serious surgery, and a year-and-a-half removed from any real, extended playing time. . . as i said earlier, having graham does help a lot if lepsis isn't 100%.

Absoloutely. I suspect the scheme will be designed to attack the ends (Tackles).

If DGraham is lined up next to Lepsis to help chip block. Look for Buff. to attack Cutler is passing situations on the other end of the O-line.

i'd be a lot happier going into the season feeling that our run D was stout rather than hoping our opponent isn't strong in that area, but at this point i'll take what i can get. . .

If the run D struggles like it has, unlike in the pre-season, Lynch or Fegeruson will be stacked in the box to help.

i'm not a hundred percent positive, but i believe that foxworth will primarily be matched against roscoe parrish out of the slot, as i don't believe he lines up outside very often. . . i'm not familiar enough with the bills to say for sure, but i think price and reed will split the #2 duties based on formation and situation, while parrish will generally be the 3rd in 3-wide sets.

Personally, i don't like the idea of Foxworth playing "man" in the slot because his physical game is'nt where it should be.

You really need to play tight, bump&run coverage to be effective on slot receivers, and i don't think he does that well. IMO, he is a great "zone" defender and that is where he seems to excel.

I would much prefer Paymah in that situation. Not sure where he is injury wise (concussion), or if Bates will even line him up there. But as you said, it's a great possibility Foxworth will play that role.

Be interesting to see.

from what i've seen of losman, i almost think he is more dangerous out of the pocket-- he throws well on the run, and while he's not a big-play danger rushing, he definitely has the speed to take off and pick up first downs, and he won;'t hesitate. . . i'd like to see us contain him as much as possible, but there's that nasty little thing about having little interior pass rush. . . i know bates prioritizes getting upfield for the ends, but if they sell out and don't bother to maintain lane discipline, losman will probably break off a few runs.

Great point on Losman scrambling ability and IMO that plays well into our defensive schem and how Bates likes to line his DEs up wide.

It will certainly help alot in trying to contain J.P.

i think gold is one of the best LBs in the league at covering RBs out of the backfield, but the coverage of our LBs in general is a big concern to me right now-- they really looked bad in preseason. . . it's never been a particular strength of dj's, and webster has played MIKE in past starting stints. . . little dump-offs in the flat hurt us in preseason, and the guys need to be more alert and get up and tackle the ballcarrier on those. . . sitting at home with a limited view of the field it's hard (at least for me!) to say if it's blown assignments, bad coverage or what, but regardless they need to tighten it up before it bites us in the ass.

Could'nt agree with you more.

And if Buff. O-Coord (??????) really wants mix it up and move the ball effectively, those little dump offs will be a great way to do it.

As you mentioned and alot of us know, Lynch is a great receiver out of the back feild who can hurt you in the passing game.

i wish i felt as confident, but there's no doubt that the talent level is there. . .

I'm a Bronco fan df, whatdya! expect!

Don't get me wrong. I am a realist and realize we have problems and are not going to win every game.

But much like the players, you have to think positive, to get positive results.

Great stuff df!

Originally Posted by Javalon

What concerns me right now is that Cutler never looked particularly sharp this preseason, or at least not consistently sharp. I really hope we aren't going to see the sophomore jinx at play. But I won't get too worried over preseason and won't panic unless it continues for the next few weeks.

I think there was a reason for this. As I can't recall any long balls thrown in preseason, I think that Shanny had Cutler throwing the short balls because that is Cutler's weak area. Preseaon is after all "practice" and Cutler was getting practice in his weak area.

Just my 2¢