Juniors dominate first mock draft
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Updated: December 11, 2007, 2:28 PM ET
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In the first of many mock drafts to come, a few things jumped out. The first is that New England, which was forced to forfeit its 32nd pick, made out just fine by having San Francisco's pick, which the Pats received in a draft-day trade last April and right now is the second overall. That means there will be high drama; Bill Belichick and Co. will have to decide whether to take Darren McFadden or trade down as the Patriots look to continue their run of great drafts.
Another thing is the abundance of juniors here (they're the ones with the * next to their name). Just to be clear, we never promote juniors leaving early, but it's a fact of life that they do. So instead of ignoring it, we add those players who belong in the first round. Obviously, there are lot of decisions to be made between now and Jan. 15 -- the early entry deadline -- as the process goes on and players officially declare their intentions, we'll adjust the mock draft accordingly. But for now, 16 of the 31 picks are draft eligible juniors.
A couple other notes:
LSU's Glenn Dorsey would become the first defensive tackle selected No. 1 overall since Cincinnati took Dan Wilkinson first in 1994.
A case of mock draft vs. my personal rankings jumps out with Atlanta taking Brian Brohm. I think Boston College's Matt Ryan is the best QB prospect, but Atlanta would take Brohm based on his ties with his former coach at Louisville Bobby Petrino.
Finally, while Atlanta and St. Louis and Oakland and Kansas City would flip a coin to determine their slot based on being tied in record and opponents winning percentage, the players they are projected to take wouldn't change.
Remember, this is the first of many mock drafts and things will change as we move closer to the 2008 draft, but if the draft were held right before Week 14 of the NFL season, here's how it would shake out.
NFL Mock Draft
1. Miami Dolphins
Current record: 0-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, OG, DT
Projected pick: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
One of the Dolphins' top priorities is to upgrade the talent level along the offensive and defensive lines with an injection of youth. Dorsey played most of the second half of the season with a minor knee injury and a back injury and was still the most disruptive defensive tackle in the country. He should be ready to contribute immediately in the NFL.
2. New England Patriots (from 3-9 San Francisco)
Current record: 12-0
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, CB, OLB
Projected pick: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
This hardly seems fair. The league's best team lands the draft's top talent -- or strikes another lucrative draft-day deal for him. Both McFadden and Laurence Maroney split carries in college. A two-back rotation would make both last longer, not to mention the possibilities for an offense already overloaded with talent.
3. New York Jets
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, NT, ILB
Projected pick: James Laurinaitis*, ILB, Ohio State
There simply is not a wide receiver to get excited about with the third overall pick and USC DT Sedrick Ellis is not a good fit as a two-gap NT in this scheme. McFadden should be the pick, if he falls to the Jets, but in this scenario, Laurinaitis makes the most sense. He would solidify the linebacker corps next to another young talent in David Harris (2nd round pick in '07). Michigan OT Jake Long is a possibility, as well.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OL, DT
Projected pick: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
It almost makes too much sense. The Falcons, in desperate need of a franchise quarterback in the wake of the Michael Vick mess, use their first-round selection on a signal-caller who played for current Atlanta head coach Bobby Petrino at Louisville from 2004-06.
5. St. Louis Rams
Current record: 3-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, CB, DE
Projected pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace and the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line this season make Long a real possibility with this pick. He is unquestionably the most dominant offensive-line prospect in the 2008 class.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DT, LB, OT
Projected pick: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
It would be tough to pass on DE Chris Long, but the Bengals have a much bigger need for interior help. Ellis is a quick, tough and relentless defensive tackle. He has the potential to disrupt plays in the backfield while occupying blocks, which would make the Bengals' entire front-seven better.
7. Oakland Raiders
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, WR, DL
Projected pick: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Outside of McFadden, there isn't a player I value more in the 2008 class than Chris Long. He plays the game with rare passion and nearly flawless technique. In addition to controlling blockers as a 3-4 end in college, Long also disengages from blocks and makes big play after big play. The fact that he finished the regular season with 14 sacks playing in that scheme tells you all you need to know about his talent and motor. Raider Nation would certainly welcome another Long with open arms.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, WR, CB
Projected pick: Ryan Clady*, OT, Boise State
Clady only makes sense here if Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle makes strides during the final few weeks of the season. If not, QB Matt Ryan would have to be a possibility with this pick. Clady is still improving his strength but he possesses impressive feet to go along with his enormous wingspan.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Current record: 4-8
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, CB, LB
Projected pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan is the top quarterback prospect in the 2008 class. In this scenario, the Ravens would send a thank-you letter to the Falcons and gladly take Ryan with the ninth overall selection.
10. New Orleans Saints
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: MLB, TE, DT
Projected pick: Keith Rivers, LB, USC
This is a bit high for Rivers, but the Saints need linebacker help and could fall in love with his leadership and tempo. Rivers could possibly play inside in the NFL, but his more natural fit is on the weakside. Regardless, he is a first-round talent with very good instincts, quickness and tackling skills.
11. Houston Texans
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DB, OG, RB
Projected pick: Malcolm Jenkins*, DB, Ohio State
Jenkins spends most of his time in soft-zone coverage at both corner and safety at Ohio State. It's unlikely he will ever emerge as a shutdown man-to-man cover corner in the NFL, but Jenkins is a ball hawk with excellent size and straight-line speed. His versatility could help solidify the Texans' secondary.
12. Denver Broncos
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OL, DT, S
Projected pick: Kenny Phillips*, S, Miami (Fla.)
Phillips had a substandard season, and it would say a lot about his character if he returns to Miami for his senior season and take on a leadership role. On the flip side, Phillips is likely to be the top safety selected if he bolts school early for the 2008 draft. Denver is aging at the position, making it one of Phillips' potential first-round landing spots. His speed and athleticism would be a good complement to the Broncos' existing group of comparatively slow-footed tough guys.
13. Carolina Panthers
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, WR, DE
Projected pick: Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Woodson has the size, arm strength and accuracy as a passer to develop into a good starter in the NFL. Some teams will be concerned about his occasional lapses in decision-making and lack of mobility. However, I would consider the Panthers fortunate if Woodson drops to them at No. 13 overall. In this scenario, Woodson would be the third and final quarterback off the board in the first round, leaving the Bears to adjust their plans quickly.
14. Chicago Bears
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OT, S
Projected pick: Mike Jenkins, DB, South Florida
If the team can't get one of the top three quarterbacks, it likely will look for help along the offensive line and at safety. Jenkins plays mostly corner at South Florida but he may be a better fit at free safety in the NFL. Regardless, Jenkins has excellent speed and ball skills for his size. He has shown much better discipline and technique as a senior, which is why he is shooting up many NFL draft boards.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, S, WR
Projected pick: DeSean Jackson*, WR, Cal
Sam Baker would be a possibility, but will the Eagles really take another USC tackle considering Winston Justice's struggles thus far? From my vantage point, Jackson would be tough to pass on here if he leaves following a disappointing junior season at Cal. Sure, critics will attack Jackson for being lean and struggling to stay healthy. But none of his injuries project to have long-term ramifications. Plus, he's a better pure wide receiver than Ted Ginn Jr. (picked by Miami No. 10 overall in 2007) and Jackson is just as explosive in the return game.
16. Washington Redskins
Current record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, DE, S
Projected pick: Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida
Harvey could use another season in Gainesville to improve his bulk and strength, but don't count on him returning. The 6-foot-4, 255-pound junior notched 17.5 sacks the past two seasons and will wow scouts with his speed and athleticism during workouts. Harvey could upgrade the Redskins' perimeter pass rush immediately.
The Plan at the moment:
Draft: Trade a 3rd and 6th this year to a team to move up and get a 2nd next year (this will happen).
Players I want:
Jake Ferguson (Jake Butt) or Jelani Woods or Jeremy Ruckert or Cade Otten (owen daniels) at TE- All 4th rd or later.
Troy Anderson LB 3rd/4th rd (yay Timmy!)
Neil Farrell, JR DL- run stuffer- bye purcell