Thread: Week 5 - Broncos v Jets News, Notes, Stuff

On the one hand, this defense is going nowhere fast...

On the other hand, if the offense can keep up its pace, it's hard to think they'll continue being this bad...

Broncos haven't won 2 games in a row since September of last year.

80%+ chance of picking in the Top 10 again.

Imagine if the defense was playing average... Just a full 180 from prior seasons.

Originally Posted by Buff

Imagine if the defense was playing average... Just a full 180 from prior seasons.

Letting Evero leave was a disastrous blunder. A truly epic f*** up. This also signifies just how bad Hackett was. I say it over and over-- coaching matters in the NFL. It matters a lot.

Snap counts from yesterday, per Troy Renck's facebook.

Originally Posted by dogfish

Snap counts from yesterday, per Troy Renck's facebook.

Randy Gregory, the $70 million man, being relegated to less than half of the defensive snaps -- and still has zero impact on the game and looks out of shape. Not sure what they can do in the secondary at this stage, just need to hope for more pressure.

Originally Posted by Buff

Randy Gregory, the $70 million man, being relegated to less than half of the defensive snaps -- and still has zero impact on the game and looks out of shape. Not sure what they can do in the secondary at this stage, just need to hope for more pressure.

There's nothing they can do about the defense until they fire Vance. Until then, it is what it is. They'll obviously have to cut Gregory after the season, he's a total waste of money. Nik Burrito has quietly become our best pass rusher, and hopefully Browning will be ready to go soon.

Originally Posted by Buff

Randy Gregory, the $70 million man, being relegated to less than half of the defensive snaps -- and still has zero impact on the game and looks out of shape. Not sure what they can do in the secondary at this stage, just need to hope for more pressure.

I'm shocked he's still playing.

Usually George Paton's free agents jump straight to IR before we realize they suck.

Originally Posted by Buff

Randy Gregory, the $70 million man, being relegated to less than half of the defensive snaps -- and still has zero impact on the game and looks out of shape. Not sure what they can do in the secondary at this stage, just need to hope for more pressure.

Wasted FA signing thanks Paton......

Originally Posted by Buff

Imagine if the defense was playing average... Just a full 180 from prior seasons.

But Russ is game manager impossible for him to be near the top......

On Monday, coach Sean Payton was asked whether Williams will miss “extended time,” and whether McLaughlin’s role will expand.

“Let’s talk about Jaleel,” Payton told reporters. “He played really well. He’s one of the guys that got a game ball this morning. He was explosive in the run and the pass. He gave us some juice, so we’ll continue to look at his role. Javonte — we won’t mention or comment on until the week progresses. [That’s] typical for us, relative to injuries.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profoo...eel-mclaughlin

Originally Posted by Buff

I realize this talking head thinks he's so smart that we should assume any stat he produces as if its valid, resulting in him not making any notation pertaining to what DVOA actually stands for, but would someone mind telling me what does and how its calculated so I can make up my own mind if it actually means anything.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

I realize this talking head thinks he's so smart that we should assume any stat he produces as if its valid, resulting in him not making any notation pertaining to what DVOA actually stands for, but would someone mind telling me what does and how its calculated so I can make up my own mind if it actually means anything.

In my opinion it means very little because it's purely a statistical value/efficiency metric based on how the team has played per drive/per play.
Most of their stuff is hidden behind a pay wall.

Besides anybody with a pair of eye balls can see that our passing offense has dramatically improved over last year because Russ is getting the ball out on time, or when he does need to hang onto it, he's more decisive about where to go with it, run, or just throw it away.

And our defense sucks because these guys don't win physically at the line, and our back 7 are full of missed tackles in a scheme that plays soft coverage that minimizes the pass rush.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

I realize this talking head thinks he's so smart that we should assume any stat he produces as if its valid, resulting in him not making any notation pertaining to what DVOA actually stands for, but would someone mind telling me what does and how its calculated so I can make up my own mind if it actually means anything.

DVOA is a well-known term in football analytics at this point, so if you care about advanced stats and all that, you would have heard of it by now (no offense).

This guy Schatz invented the term as far as I can tell, so that is interesting--he was an analyst at Football Outsiders (the website that brought us DVOA) and now is somewhere else, and he's trying to maintain the relevance of "DVOA" even though Football Outsiders has been shuttered and no longer exists (they were bought out).

It's not a bad summary statistic, it does a good job of telling a lot with a single number, which is what you hope a good statistic does. It might be one of the more predictive stats, kinda like how net turnovers tends to predict W/L more than anything else.

So in layman’s terms, DVOA is a statistic that takes things into consideration plain old stats might not. For example, Kirk Cousins had a decent day in the box score on Sunday (19-25 for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception plus 34 yards rushing) but his DVOA took a bit of a hit because the Vikings were playing from behind, which does have some impact on how DVOA is calculated as noted above (Cousins ranked 9th in DVOA after Week 1). DVOA looks at the average result of a play in a similar situation, and when teams are down big, they tend to throw a lot and go for chunk plays. Cousins was successful in doing that (over 10 yards per attempt), but because the baseline is higher, his value over average dips.

On the other sideline there is Aaron Rodgers, who earned acclaim for his performance in Week 1 (and deservedly so). Rodgers’ box score was indeed impressive as he went 32-44 for 364 yards and four touchdowns. It was the most Rodgers-like game he has played in a while and has been a cause for celebration amongst Packers fans.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/b...ball-outsiders

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

DVOA is a well-known term in football analytics at this point, so if you care about advanced stats and all that, you would have heard of it by now (no offense).

This guy Schatz invented the term as far as I can tell, so that is interesting--he was an analyst at Football Outsiders (the website that brought us DVOA) and now is somewhere else, and he's trying to maintain the relevance of "DVOA" even though Football Outsiders has been shuttered and no longer exists (they were bought out).

It's not a bad summary statistic, it does a good job of telling a lot with a single number, which is what you hope a good statistic does. It might be one of the more predictive stats, kinda like how net turnovers tends to predict W/L more than anything else.



https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/b...ball-outsiders

Yes, I've heard of it, but no one has told me what the acronym stands for until the article you included in this post, “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.” Just knowing that helps me realize that this is just someone who is trying to act like he's smarter then everyone else by coming up with an algorithm that few can understand and calculate on their own. I can now file this away with QBR.