Can Denver, Wilson be Fixed?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...les-blame-next
Some interesting points in the article.
Could we have seen this coming?
It would require a certain amount of revisionist history to answer "yes." Wilson struggled at times over his final two seasons in Seattle, in part because of a broker finger in 2021, but he was generally very good. His 64.4 QBR over that stretch ranked eighth in the league, just ahead of Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
After recovering from the finger injury, Wilson was particularly effective at the end of his Seahawks tenure. He struggled with his accuracy after rushing back from injury, but over the final seven weeks of last season, he posted a QBR of 67.8, the seventh-best mark in football. He threw 15 touchdown passes against three picks, and while it was a frustrating season for his team, the Seahawks won four of their final seven games. The wheels were not falling off at the end of 2021.
I will say there's one element of Wilson's game that slowed in 2021 and has continued to be off the pace in 2022: his mobility. He scrambled for nearly 28 yards per game in 2020, a figure that dropped by more than half to 11.5 yards per game in 2021. He has been effective when he has chosen to scramble this season, but he doesn't take that choice often, as he's averaging only 12.5 scramble yards per game.
Likewise, when Wilson's on the move, he has been a less effective passer. NFL Next Gen Stats considers a throw on the run to come when a quarterback passes the ball while traveling faster than 8 mph. In 2020, Wilson's EPA per play on these passes was the 11th best in the league. Last season, that mark fell all the way to 27th. This season, he ranks 24th.
What about with Nathaniel Hackett?
Now, I feel the need to mention the other person absorbing much of the blame for Denver's struggles. Could we have seen Hackett struggling in his first stint as a head coach? That one seems more plausible. His résumé before taking over in Denver was limited. Remember that the original story surrounding Hackett's hire was in relation to the idea of the Broncos trading for Aaron Rodgers, who regarded the former Packers assistant as "like a brother" after three years together in Green Bay.
Hackett had spent eight years as an offensive coordinator before taking over in Denver, and the results were mixed. With EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton at quarterback in Buffalo in 2013-14, Hackett's offenses ranked 25th and 26th in offensive DVOA. Hackett followed coach Doug Marrone to Jacksonville, and while the Jaguars advanced to the postseason, it wasn't because of their offense; Blake Bortles & Co. ranked 27th, 15th and then 30th before Hackett was fired during the 2018 campaign.
Did the Broncos make the most lopsided trade ever?
Not unless it gets much worse. The trade obviously has turned into a huge victory for the Seahawks, who are projected to land the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. They used Denver's 2022 first-rounder on left tackle Charles Cross, who has been excellent as a rookie protecting quarterback Geno Smith. Shelby Harris has been a solid rotation defensive tackle. Tight end Noah Fant has been an ancillary option in the passing game and Drew Lock has backed up Smith, but even getting Cross and a top-five pick for Wilson would have been a good deal for Seattle.
It's still too early to close the book on the trade. I think back to 2011, when Washington traded a draft haul to the Rams for Robert Griffin III and looked like a genius after he led the team to the playoffs as a rookie. Injuries slowed him down afterward, and by Year 3, the trade looked like a huge victory for the Rams. In the end, while the Rams didn't land any superstars, they drafted several longtime NFL veterans in Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins and Alec Ogletree. The Jamal Adams trade, too, looked a lot better for Seattle after Year 1 than it did after Year 2 or now in Year 3.
There are worse deals, both in terms of what was being offered at the time of the deal and how it turned out in hindsight. The DeAndre Hopkins trade was more lopsided at the time and helped destroy the Texans franchise. The Seahawks sending a first-round pick to acquire Percy Harvin and then extending the return man for what turned out to be 23 catches was a disaster, even if he did pick up a return touchdown while up multiple scores in the Super Bowl.
If Wilson continues to struggle, when can the Broncos move on?
When a team trades two first-round picks for a player, an extension usually follows. Sure enough, the Broncos inked Wilson to a five-year, $242.5 million extension on Sept. 1. Wilson had two years and $51 million left on his existing contract, so the Broncos have him on the books for about $295 million over the next seven seasons.
In practice, Wilson is owed $104 million through the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons, most of which is guaranteed either now or by the end of 2024. There's not really any way for the Broncos to get out of that money if he wants to play football. Even in a league in which teams are willing to absorb more dead money than ever before, the first time they could really consider cutting Wilson would be 2025, when they could spread the $49.6 million due over two years for cap purposes. In that scenario, they would still be paying him for his guaranteed $37 million salary in 2025, but he would be playing elsewhere.
If the Broncos just wanted to dump Wilson off their books to the highest bidder next spring, it would be theoretically possible, if not particularly likely. Wilson has a $20 million option bonus due in March, so if they dealt him before then, they would owe only $40 million in dead money. While $40 million is a staggering amount of dead money -- and the Broncos would have paid $57 million for one terrible season of football -- that would be one way to get out of three more years of guarantees if they want nothing more than to be done with their investment.
What needs to change for Denver?
Writing 2022 off as a lost season, here's what the Broncos need to do to get the most out of Wilson in 2023 and beyond.
1. Move on from Hackett. While he is generally regarded around the league as a nice guy -- and coaches have survived worse starts to their head-coaching careers -- it's difficult to find any evidence that he has been suited for this opportunity. His early-season game management blunders cost the Broncos at least one win, and while he has been thoughtful about bringing in help and ceding responsibility to try to create a better atmosphere, I'm not sure there's much he can hang his hat on after a woeful campaign. A reunion with Rodgers -- either in Green Bay or elsewhere -- would make sense for both parties.
2. Keep Ejiro Evero. The best thing Hackett has done in his tenure is hire Evero to be his defensive coordinator. The Broncos rank fourth in the league in defensive EPA per play allowed. Evero has built one of the league's stoutest defenses while missing key contributors Justin Simmons and Randy Gregory for chunks of time. The much-vaunted pass rush duo of Gregory and Chubb combined to play just 101 snaps together, as Gregory went down injured before Chubb was traded to the Dolphins.
3. Hire a coach or coordinator with a track record of molding offenses to unique quarterbacks. After going for a first-time head coach in Hackett, I have to imagine Denver would pursue a more experienced option to take over the offense. I'm sure it is one of the many teams that would be interested in coaxing Sean Payton out of retirement, but even after getting a first-round pick back in the Chubb deal, I don't know that it has the sort of draft capital the Saints will want for their former coach.
A more realistic option would be Frank Reich, who had built a series of solid offenses around different passers before things fell apart in Indianapolis this season. Reich also is a free agent, so the Broncos could hire him as their offensive coordinator if Reich's interested in that role. Maybe Kubiak is that guy if the Broncos look better over the second half of the season and think he can rebuild the offense over the offseason.
4. Get healthy. Easy, right? The Broncos would look different with Williams, Jeudy, Patrick, Dulcich, Bolles and Cushenberry all on the field at the same time, something that didn't happen for a single snap this season. They likely will address right tackle again this offseason and should bring in another back to rotate alongside Williams and Boone, but most of their offensive core is already present. Getting them on the field should improve matters.
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Originally Posted by Tbolt
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