Thread: Analytics vs. what you see with your own eyes and personal experience.

As a “micro-analyzing” Autistic, I fully appreciate the value of effective statistical analysis as a part of decision making. The problem with basing your decisions entirely upon data, especially if its simplified so it can be quickly accumulated and drawn upon, is that there’re usually so many variables that you can’t possibly account for every single one. The blind adherence to analytics is something that more coaches are doing more often. The problem with this mindset is there’re are multiple factors that these coaches are not considering because their simplified analytics don’t account for them. Some of which are as follows:

1) The quality of their O: Whether or not the average O are likely to convert means little if O is below average. The further below average you are, the less meaningful the analytics of what the average O is likely to do.

2) The quality of their opponents’ D: See the above explanation and invert it.

3) How many injuries both teams have and the impact those missing players are likely have on the play.

These are just a few of the reasons why coaches need to be competent leader who can accurately analyze what’s going on in front of them at that time when making their decision, not just sheep who do whatever the stat sheet tells them to.

I was motivated to start this topic by watching the Cards pass up on 3 chip shot FG attempts by going for it on 4th & 4 or less each time when it simply wasn’t necessary. So, instead of being down by 1 point with 8 minutes to go in the game, they were down by 10. When the Cards got the ball back, they went into pass on every down mode which open the door for the Seahawks pass rush absolutely abuse Murray.

Stats make fans feel wicked smaht, go with your eye.

Originally Posted by Jaded

Stats make fans feel wicked smaht, go with your eye.

I'm not talking about how the fans misuse them, I'm talking about professional coaches.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

I'm not talking about how the fans misuse them, I'm talking about professional coaches.

I would say it’s a mixture of both for the coaches in decision making positions, if they go too far in one direction they open themselves up fair/unfair scrutiny.

Staying with a mixture of both offers more Nuance, which is what you want imo, while also giving these coaches more talking points and cliches to regurgitate because they have to defend their decision making when Monday Morning HC’s and GM’s want answers.

Originally Posted by Jaded

I would say it’s a mixture of both for the coaches in decision making positions, if they go too far in one direction they open themselves up fair/unfair scrutiny.

Staying with a mixture of both offers more Nuance, which is what you want imo, while also giving these coaches more talking points and cliches to regurgitate because they have to defend their decision making when Monday Morning HC’s and GM’s want answers.

This is one of the finest posts I have ever read and I want to thank you for it.