Originally Posted by
Hawgdriver
It's on me for not framing the question as well as possible. But at least in the discussion it helps tease out exactly what I'm trying to ask. It shows I haven't thought about it deeply enough, or clearly enough.
I'll frame it more precisely.
Before that, I wanted to sorta agree with you on the first 6 years and stats, but also draw a distinction. The stats do a good job of showing 'unstoppable' because the stats are really what is trying to be stopped. It was obvious that these WRs were massively talented and had to be accounted for by the time they hit their peak. But they still found a way.
On the other hand, stats can get crazy based on a single defensive lapse (hello free 80 yards)--now maybe the WR induced the lapse, or maybe there was confusion on assignment, or maybe the OC had out-schemed the coverage. There are some games when a WR goes off, and it really doesn't have to do with the WR as much as the defense being easily exploited. Peyton Manning could just deliver it to Reggie Wayne at will against the Broncos, then Shanny decided he'd seen enough and got Champ, D-Will, and Foxworth.
That might be a reason why we haven't said much about Harrison and Wayne--the Peyton Manning effect.
Just saying that stats do tell a good story, but if we base it exclusively on stats, we are going to miss these kinds of things:
A 0-1 reception game because the WR was always drawing two defenders, allowing easy targets to other receivers. Yeah, he was stopped, but if stopping the WR means throwing the kitchen sink at him, was it worth it?
A WR with a crap QB on a bad, lifeless team. Looking at you, Randy Moss & Aaron Brooks. Was Randy in his 'prime' or at his peak? Maybe at age 29 he was past it, but his 23 TD season the year afterward showed that he still had mad game.
WRs on bad teams who rack up stats in the 4th Q.
WRs who played in divisions with bad secondaries they would see twice a year. This probably evens out, but let's look at some of the best WR seasons to get a feel for it (I'm going to use the NY/A as the ranking of passing defense, lower means better defense). Picking at random.
1998 Moss - GB (1), TB (7), Det (16), Chi (27) (solid)
1993 Rice - NO (4), Atl (28-DFL), LA Rams (27) (hmm)
2012 'Tron - GB (7), Min (10), Chi (4) (overachiever)
Yeah, it's just 6 or 8 games of the year, but it matters. We are so stat-centric that this discussion begins with the premise told by those stats. We don't even question it, we assume the stats are the truth. Yeah, we can mentally adjust our position based on this nuance--but we are only moving it a little bit, and we start with what the stats say.
Imagine there were *no* stats.
This gets to how I could more precisely frame the question.
Here it is.
With the benefit of hindsight--of knowing how their careers would play out,
And with peak Peyton Manning (or whatever perfect QB you think would max the WR)
Against the best defenses in the league
With just one year to make a go at a championship on a solid team
Which WR (or receiver if you want to say Gronk, etc) at the top of their game do you pick first?
Reply With Quote
