Thread: QBR and how it effects Quarterbacks in the NFL

QBR gives a good litmus test as to what happened, and to a lesser extent why it happened. It's not definitive and human eyes will always be needed to ascertain certain things. I think it's still better as a rating than the other one, but both are too honed in on efficiency. That's my issue with it; sometimes the guy who slung the ball more and had a turnover was playing way better and had more to overcome than a vintage Jimmy G/Alex Smith hyper efficient game.

Originally Posted by King87

QBR gives a good litmus test as to what happened, and to a lesser extent why it happened. It's not definitive and human eyes will always be needed to ascertain certain things. I think it's still better as a rating than the other one, but both are too honed in on efficiency. That's my issue with it; sometimes the guy who slung the ball more and had a turnover was playing way better and had more to overcome than a vintage Jimmy G/Alex Smith hyper efficient game.

I agree but i think the QBR actually does address that. Generally the QBR makes it a habit to point out that if 2 QB's have great games and both QB's have multiple turnovers But only one of them was able to overcome those turnovers than their QBR's are reflected using that method. Many times the QBR will try and determine if a QB is able to make plays when necessary to still win the game even if said QB is having a rough outing.

An example:

If Mahomie is having a game where in the 4th he has thrown for 1 TD and 3 Ints but on the final drive is able to win because of the clutch factor that is incorporated into the QBR.

If Winston on the same day has thrown 3 TD's but the team is in a dogfight and Jamesis has a chance to win the game on the final drive but throws a pick 6 instead that is also incorporated in his clutch factor.

Bottom line it isnt so much about what kind of day the QB is having and what it is they are able to do when the chips are down and how they do it on a consistent basis. Efficiency plays a part but there is so much more to it than just the stat line.

Originally Posted by Northman

I agree but i think the QBR actually does address that. Generally the QBR makes it a habit to point out that if 2 QB's have great games and both QB's have multiple turnovers But only one of them was able to overcome those turnovers than their QBR's are reflected using that method. Many times the QBR will try and determine if a QB is able to make plays when necessary to still win the game even if said QB is having a rough outing.

An example:

If Mahomie is having a game where in the 4th he has thrown for 1 TD and 3 Ints but on the final drive is able to win because of the clutch factor that is incorporated into the QBR.

If Winston on the same day has thrown 3 TD's but the team is in a dogfight and Jamesis has a chance to win the game on the final drive but throws a pick 6 instead that is also incorporated in his clutch factor.

Bottom line it isnt so much about what kind of day the QB is having and what it is they are able to do when the chips are down and how they do it on a consistent basis. Efficiency plays a part but there is so much more to it than just the stat line.

It does address that to an extent. I push back on it a little because they use an example where a guy with more stats but less efficiency 'played worse' than a guy with fewer stats but more efficiency. Sometimes the guy is out there with a bad team and goes hard on attempts because that's the only way to win. I.E. guys like Stafford tend to get worse rubs than other guys. I don't dismiss the stat because it's impossible for it to hit everything.

It's a nice, a really nice way to start analysis. Basketball has PER, baseball has WAR, etc. QBR is pretty solid.

Originally Posted by Northman

You know i love me some QBR because it generally aligns with not only how i see QB's as a total package but how it measures up when i look at how good/bad a QB does in the NFL and College respectively.

But as i did point out is Bennetts QBR higher because he plays at Georgia and Hooker plays for a Tenn team still trying to dig out from Manning's shadow? And if so how does that apply to Stroud and Young? Are they simply products of the systems there? I agree with you that QBR will never be the be all end all but i think you spend far too much time pushing against it when i personally think it hits the mark more times than it misses. I mean, i know Bama had a down year (respectively) but what Bennett did against Bama isnt a whole lot to scoff at. Its very hard to beat the machine that is the Tide.

QBR doesn’t measure potential and talent, it recaps games played.

Originally Posted by Jaded

QBR doesn’t measure potential and talent, it recaps games played.

Yea, but do you want it too? Serious question.

Looking back at a slew of QB's who entered into the NFL over the years many of them had potential and/or talent. Shit Jaded, thats why they were drafted in the first place right? But you and i both know that not every player that has potential or talent is going to work out in the NFL because not all of them can translate that stuff at the pro level. Akili Smith had potential and talent, Joey Harrington had potential and talent, Tebow had potential and talent but none that matters if they cant progress and capitalize on it a the professional level.

Originally Posted by Northman

Yea, but do you want it too? Serious question.

Looking back at a slew of QB's who entered into the NFL over the years many of them had potential and/or talent. Shit Jaded, thats why they were drafted in the first place right? But you and i both know that not every player that has potential or talent is going to work out in the NFL because not all of them can translate that stuff at the pro level. Akili Smith had potential and talent, Joey Harrington had potential and talent, Tebow had potential and talent but none that matters if they cant progress and capitalize on it a the professional level.

I don’t have any use for QBR, so it doesn’t matter what I want it to do.

Stats will never tell you if a talented prospect will bust, past performance is no guarantee of future performance whether it’s good or bad. Josh Allen sucked until he didn’t, but, the talent was always obvious. Stats are grading players (then ranking them) who had zero conditions in common; QBa gets a better grade/ranking for playing directional college at home while QBb gets a worse grade for playing Bama in front of 100,000 drunk Alabama nut jobs.

I prefer to believe that NFL success is far more about nature/nurture than it is about algorithms, and QBR isn’t even a predictive algorithm … it’s a recap of past performance with almost zero context. Can it measure how QBa did in certain situations? I guess, but then it compares/ranks that dude vs the QBb who absolutely played 11 NFL prospects on every single down (most of them 1st and 2nd round prospects).

That’s not to say I would give QBR any more weight if the same QB put up bad a QBR against a shit team and then put up a great QBR against a great team (I don’t even know if that’s part of their algorithm) … because there’s just too many more variables. Injuries, weather, home/away, luck, bad luck, YAC, dropped passes, poor officiating, hundreds more.

I prefer taking obvious talent and trying to nurture that, instead of rehashing college stats and trying to predict success regardless of talent level.

DeMarcus Walker led the country in sacks his final season with FSU, he was a dud in the NFL, we know this because stats are nothing more than a recap. Broncos made the same mistake with Mike Croel, leaving Alfred Williams to languish with the Bengals/49ers before that atrocity was fixed by Shanatan.

Croel had a great 40 but he was tiny and stiff, Alfred had everything; 40 time, arm length, strength, burst off the snap, bend for days, 3-cone, vert and “It” (barf). But Croel had a big Sr season so … science.

Nobody will be more interested in stats when they give the nuances and context the weight they demand, QBR is just in the infancy of that process. I’m basically waiting for them to split the atom.

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

Originally Posted by King87

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

Yea, but i have to give it to him he's fun to read. Love that guy!

I rep him! I rep him hard! Harder than a diamond in a blizzard.

Originally Posted by King87

How jaded thinks people use stats and how they actually do are wildly different things.

How do you “use” stats? I mean, other than talking yourself into Kirk Schaub and Garbage Minshew?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Says here that Kirk Schaub and Mac Jones are better QB’s than Lamar Jackson.

Call and offer either to the Ravens, just record it so I can hear their belly laugh bellowing with disbelief.

Originally Posted by Jaded

How do you “use” stats? I mean, other than talking yourself into Kirk Schaub and Garbage Minshew?

I fear this is a point in time where your stupidity is too much of a barrier.

Yeah, that was one game, though, I'm talking in the totality of a season and seasons overall. Also, I have noticed that there were a lot of debutants. Even though it was their first season in big sports, they were very good. I know that a lot of them have graduated from football Colleges. You can find some good Football Colleges on footballcolleges.com. People that are graduating from such educational institutions are well-trained, so this is why this season was so interesting to watch and full of amazing moments.