Thread: 2021 Broncos Draft Thread: 04/29/21-05/01/21

Originally Posted by King87

Could you even quantify the risk factors? A guy like Ozzie Newsome, arguably the GOAT at GM could have had multiple years of flaming out with high risk picks and still kept his job. If for no other reason than the strong base he build, the legend that he had in the franchise, the good contracts, etc.

I guess my issue with Paton's approach is this: you have a six year deal with a great roster. Your job is still attractive no matter what to coaches. If Fangio doesn't want a new QB, so what? Bottom line it, so what? If a new head coach doesn't want Fields or feels like he's not married to him, that makes some sense. But...those jobs are hard to find, the roster is great, etc. If Fangio returns, and you have to take a new QB anyway, you wasted another year. Even if Teddy B works out, that's not the answer. If Lock bombs he's not the answer. It just feels like stasis. And in years past it wasn't nearly as big of a deal because you could find an Alex Smith or a Dilfer and go ham in the playoffs.

Those days are dead. Even guys like Tannehill, the high end game managers have to be able to throw some bombs down the field. It's just hard to believe that anyone would/could look at Lock and think "yeah that guys more likely to be better than Fields long term," or even "he's better than Fields now," because history, recent history tells us mobile QB's who are learning can do great things early on. Teams adjust to their style of play in the second year, not the first.

tl;dr Paton has all the job security in the world with a great roster. Nothing is holding him back and it's hard to justify the first round selection outside of a vacuum. In a vacuum, Surtain was a strong pick at 10.

Originally Posted by King87

Also Hawg, I hated the Ponder pick, but I think one of the reasons why Minny kept going with him was they valued continuity.

But the kicker was 2011 marked the first season of the salary changes for rookie. No more Bradford getting paid more than Brady as a rookie....so if there was ever a ******* time to move off of your awful game manager with a second round grad...

I also recall (flawed device of course) that they believed their elite defense was the solution to Rodgers.

Oof.

I think my takeaway is that we like to think these decision makers are above the fray -- but a lot of them respond to the same incentives as the rest of us mortals would in the workplace. They value job security over team success. They are subject to groupthink. They have egos and don't like to admit when they are wrong. (e.g. - Ponder). Etc.

Originally Posted by Buff

I think my takeaway is that we like to think these decision makers are above the fray -- but a lot of them respond to the same incentives as the rest of us mortals would in the workplace. They value job security over team success. They are subject to groupthink. They have egos and don't like to admit when they are wrong. (e.g. - Ponder). Etc.

Question: does that mean Newsome (probably) felt freer to take Jackson at the end of the first round then he would have in year two as a GM? Probably, right? But what about after like year five of 'watch how much better I am at drafting than you' paired with his patented 'all of my coaching staffs have a blend of old school guys and new innovative thinkers'?

I would want to view myself as the person who just didn't give a **** and walked around with my scepter out. But maybe I'd just flame out/be a shitty mortal like the rest of them.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Jaded's list of most important variables for a football player:

1. Talent
2. Criminal history
3. Mental illness
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
997. Jorts
998. High School Valedictorian
999. Team Captain
1000. It.

you forgot the most important of all. . . shit factor!!

Drafting a QB early (rounds 1-3, in particular round 1), period, probably has a whole boatload of consequences that could be identified.

I'll bet there's so much baggage with the drafting of a QB that we should factor in when we judge Paton. Does that make sense? Even beyond the miss rate, there are likely a dozen little gotcha aspects of it that need to be turned over.

For example, media fuzz. Drafting a QB early triggers a generic QB competition narrative. It's a cost, a factor.

I know a few others have crossed my mind from time to time, can't think of them now.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Drafting a QB early (rounds 1-3, in particular round 1), period, probably has a whole boatload of consequences that could be identified.

I'll bet there's so much baggage with the drafting of a QB that we should factor in when we judge Paton. Does that make sense? Even beyond the miss rate, there are likely a dozen little gotcha aspects of it that need to be turned over.

For example, media fuzz. Drafting a QB early triggers a generic QB competition narrative. It's a cost, a factor.

I know a few others have crossed my mind from time to time, can't think of them now.

If you draft a QB, it signals a lot of things, and they might chance.

The Jaguars signaled 'we're doing a total rebuild and this stud is at the heart of it'.

The Bears signaled 'we're done ******* around with marginal talents in the first round'.

The Niners signaled 'our roster is dope and we can start Jimmy G and game manage back to the playoffs' as well as 'we just took one of the best physical talents ever and the future is bright'.

If you draft a Wilson on a loaded roster you could signal 'we are going to keep trying to win' or it could be construed as 'we know we suck and it's time to rebuild'.

I think the hidden factor is what is the team culture? Vets on Chicago could view the Fields draft as 'oh look another QB we're gong to strike out with' or '**** yeah, Dalton now, him later' or 'the best QB wins the job and the defense goes to work'.

The real unlocking is when the youngster goes ham and you get to abuse his cheap contract. When that signals you're telling the league 'look at my dong. Look at it. Look at this ******* thing. I am big dong'.

Or something. I dunno. Just words man. Just words.

The most important variable to all the theories about why Paton chose Surtain over Fields really comes down to Drew Lock. Perhaps the really do see a guy who can be the franchise QB for the Broncos. I mean you can use all kinds of facts and figures and statistics to try to justify why either way, but it really just comes down to potential risk vs potential reward. Fields is a risk. From all the reports, he was one of the bigger risks of all the first round QBs. Wilson supposedly has a better arm and is smarter. Lance has a better arm and better legs (I guess) and is smarter. Jones is supposedly much smarter and more accurate. Fields supposedly isn’t a hard worker. I have no idea if any of these are true but those are the things that were said about him. Drew Lock is a known commodity. Fields is not. It could just be the team has faith in Lock.

I saw Kenoy say above that scheme doesn’t matter. We all know that’s horse shit. Tom Brady can’t play in Lamar Jackson’s offense any more than Jackson can play in Brady’s. It’s great that the teams those guys have played for thus far have been willing to shape their systems to their QBs, but don’t tell me scheme doesn’t matter and great QBs can play in any scheme. Manning struggled mightily his year in Kubiak’s scheme and it wasn’t just because of plantar fasciitis. If that was the case, why would anyone ever trade for a QB or sign a FA who failed elsewhere? Why would Carolina acquire Darnold? He’s been the worst QB in the league for 3 years.

I think Paton took Surtain at 9 because he was the safest and most likely to live up to his draft stock player in the first round. Remember how Nelson was the “safest pick” a few years ago? That’s Surtain this year. He played in the top program for the top coach in the nation for 3 years. Started every game. He was groomed by his father who was a great player at the same position. He has the mental and physical traits to be great at the position. He has almost no detractors and no red flags. The likelihood he “busts”, barring some freak injury, is extremely low. He projects to be a top 10 CB in the league and to have a long, productive career. Those are the guys you draft in the top 10. Apparently, Fields and Jones had too many question marks.

Originally Posted by Buff

My slightly different spin on this is that he doesn't have much incentive to take the 4th QB off the board with a Top 10 pick in the first year of a six year contract. It is always going to be a gamble, and there's way more downside than upside in that scenario.

Paton's decision probably had as much to do with the structural variables at play as it did with his evaluation of Lock. Plus conventional wisdom says give your QB a third year, so even if Lock falls flat, there's not much penalty to Paton for that.

Or, he actually likes Lock.

Originally Posted by BroncoJoe

Or, he actually likes Lock.

Or, he actually likes Bridgewater.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Jaded's list of most important variables for a football player:

1. Talent
2. Criminal history
3. Mental illness
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
997. Jorts
998. High School Valedictorian
999. Team Captain
1000. It.

1. Talent
2. Anything that pisses off pretentious Broncos fans.

/discussion

Originally Posted by Jaded

Or, he actually likes Bridgewater.

This is a terrible thing. A terrible, terrible thing. No one should be like this.

Oh sweet God, he thinks he can game manager a nice roster into a contender, doesn't he? Oh god...oh no.......

Originally Posted by Jaded

1. Talent

/discussion

You care about production, too. You big grumpy grump!

Originally Posted by King87

You care about production, too. You big grumpy grump!

Not in the draft. Actually, not at all.

And I’m not grumpy, I love this shit.

Jayson Oweh had zero sacks in 2020 and I would’ve used the 9th pick on him.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Jaded's list of most important variables for a football player:

1. Talent
2. Criminal history
3. Mental illness
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
997. Jorts
998. High School Valedictorian
999. Team Captain
1000. It.

1001. PFF Grades

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

1001. PFF Grades

hahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah aha