No particular order, just sharing similar situations as I look over a list of GMs.
2014 - Bill O'Brien's staff takes over as HC of 2-14 Texans team with Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB1, Keenum and Mallet and Savage (drafted in 4th round of 2014 actually) forming the bucket of QB leavings, Rick Smith incumbent GM who is later replaced by BOB. QB-desperate team drafts Jadaveon Clowney #1 overall. Derek Carr goes #36, 4 picks after HOU's 2d round draft spot, but no chance in hell another Carr lands there...they also passed on Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater. Side note: Rick Smith assumed GM role in 2006, had #1 overall pick and used it on Mario Williams. Jay Cutler drafted #9, rest of QB class was suck.
Takeaway - Rick Smith and BOB both appear to be risk-averse in their first-year tenancy, and in hindsight, it was correct--passing on Cutler was an arguable mistake, I'd say it was fine to pass on that d-nozz.
Originally Posted by Sting
He has leeway in his first year as GM. If he doesn't think the QB available is the right one, there's no need to tie his legacy to the first QB that trips into his lap. He can ride out Lock if he has to, blame the previous guy if that doesn't work.
That said, I still expect Justin Fields, unless Denver gets leapfrogged for a price they don't wanna pay. And I think Fields is an immediate improvement.
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2018 - Ravens announce DeCosta will replace Ozzie Newsome following 2018 season, draft Lamar Jackson late 1st round. Not at all a 1st year GM making a bold QB pick, but worth inclusion because DeCosta knows he's taking the reins pretty soon. He's been in the Ravens org since the mid-90's. Still, he has to know this pick might be important in the same way as a new GM.
Takeaway - Even though it's a training-wheels type GM decision, it was an important pick. Crucial though is that it was a late 1st instead of a top 10, which makes it easier to call it off.
Originally Posted by Sting
June 2019 - Joe Douglas, Ozzie Newsome disciple, takes reins as Jets GM. Inherits the 'Darnold situation' and coach Adam Gase. Drafts Mekhi Becton, a tackle, at 11. Available at QB was Jordan Love and J Hurts. Tua and Herbert were drafted #5 and #6--arguably unavailable.
Takeaway - Making a run at Tua or Herbert, while correct in hindsight, would have taken massive stones for the new GM (if possible at all). Maybe he knew he was done with Gase and Darnold and had to let the situation play out, rather than imposing his will. I can't call this one because it's a tall task for any GM stepping into those shoes. If anything, add a tally in the "first-year GM will be conservative" column.
Originally Posted by Sting
2019 is Mayock's first draft as the GM of the team from Mordor, and alleged QB-whisperer Sauron Gruden is looking over his shoulder at the QB possibilities. Takes Clelin Ferrell at #4. Team has Derek Carr at QB, so they are fine. They have no chance at Kyler Murray, but could have drafted Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, or Drew Lock. Or even Jorts Minshew.
Takeaway - not much to see here, just wanted to point out that Mayock passed on Devin White, Josh Allen (OLB), and TJ Hockenson. Kind of a conventional pick since the Clemson D-line was so dominant. In hindsight, maybe 3 1st round picks from the same D-line was a bit much. Has the feel of conservativism, but iirc was considered a mild reach at the time.
Originally Posted by Sting
2020 - 2d year GM of the Packers Brian Gutekunst, a 'groomed' replacement, drafts Jordan Love around #26, instead of giving Rodgers more help.
Takeaway - seems tone-deaf and foolish on the surface, but it may prove brilliant if Love pans out. Would Tee Higgins have meant a SB?
Originally Posted by Sting
Feels like there'd be too much noise/too many variables to extrapolate whether a 1st year GM is more/less likely to take a QB. Salary cap, positional depth, draft position, draft depth, etc.
I think the scenarios that first year GM's don't HIGHLY consider a QB are when they have a solid vet on a big contract or are inheriting a recent high draft pick still developing. Does Lock count as the latter? Not really. So, it just brings us full circle to it all factoring in what Paton/Fangio/Shurmur/Shula think Lock can be. Maybe the last 5 games last season showed them something. There was definite improvement in his mechanics. But maybe the allure of a Justin Fields is too much to pass on. We'll find out in a few hours.
2017 - Colts GM Ballard inherits Andrew Luck who has been thrashed behind Ryan Grigson's perma-seive OL. Also inherits Pat McAfee, which balances this out.
This is a weird one. Luck is the DUDE. But in Ballard's first year, Luck doesn't play a snap. Ballard addresses situation via FA.
No takeaway, except Ballard has built a quality roster by making superior draft selections. He passed on Josh Allen, taken one spot after Quenton Nelson. Drafting Nelson was a belated gesture toward Luck, who played his final season that year (2018) for the Colts, but it raises the question about Ballard's draft. Yes, he earned GM of the Galaxy honors for taking two AP players with his first two picks. But what if he had shopped Luck and drafted Allen? Hindsight makes it look easy.
Originally Posted by Sting
Yeah, I like to talk to myself, I know the shape of things.
Anyone remember the last time a freshly minted GM, and not some internal protege, stepped up and did the major mic-drop QB gamble? Right out the gate?
Originally Posted by Sting
Beane and McDermott took Allen in their first NFL draft, about 10 months after taking the mantle. They moved up to #7 from 21. Tyrod Taylor was the notional incumbent, although I can't recall who was on the roster on draft day.
I remember at the time feeling like 'sucker' when they drafted him.
Who's the sucker now?
Originally Posted by Sting
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