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Thread: Analysis of Superbowl Winning Quarterback

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    Default Analysis of Superbowl Winning Quarterback

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    If your goal is more than just winning a bunch of regular season, it's to win the SB, then maybe you should look at the fact about which QBs are actually more likely to win SBs. The above attachment will provides the raw data that's the basis for my following observations.

    My Observations

    To those who believe that losing teams should tank the end of their seasons in order to get a higher draft pick so they can get a ďbetterĒ QB, especially since the league became more pass happy since the turn of the millennium. However, the simple charting of those who have reached and those who have Won the SB proves thatís not the case, especially since the league turned pass happy after the turn of the millennium.

    ❖ 11 QBs who have been taken with the 1st pick of their respective draft are 17-8 as SB starters.
    ❖ 2 QBs who have been taken with the 2nd pick of their respective draft are 1-2, the only 1 who has reached since the turn of the millennium lost.
    ❖ 2 QBs who have been taken with the 3rd pick are 0-2, the only 1 who has reached since the turn of the millennium lost.
    ❖ 1 QB who was taken with the 4th pick is 2-1, none have done so since the turn of the millennium.
    ❖ 4 QBs who have been taken with the 5th pick are 2-4 in SBs, the only 1 who has reached since the turn of the millennium lost.
    ❖ 2 QB who was taken with the 6th Ė 9th picks are 2-0.
    ❖ 1 QB who has been taken with a 10th pick has reached, and Won, the SB: Patrick Mahomes.
    ❖ 4 QBs who were taken with the 11th Ė 20th picks are 3-6 in SBs, the 2 who have reached since the turn of the millennium are 3-3.
    ❖ 4 QBs who were taken with the 21st Ė 30th picks are 2-5 in SBs, the 2 has reached since the turn of the millennium and are 1-1.
    ❖ 12 QBs who were taken with the 51st Ė 99th picks are 9-8 in SBs, the 4 have reached since the turn of the millennium have a record of 2-3.
    ❖ 11 QBs who were taken with the 100th or latter picks, including UDFA are 13-12, the 4 who have reached since the turn of the millennium have a record 7-6.

    If you believe the more TDs your QB throws the more likely you are to win the SB, simple statistical analysis will disprove it.

    ❖ 0 QBs who threw 50+ TD passes in a single season won the Superbowl that same year.
    ❖ 1 QB of the 13 to throw 40+ TD passes in a single season won the Superbowl the same year he did.
    ❖ 40 times QBs have thrown 35+ TD passes in a single season during the Superbowl era, 3 won the Superbowl the same seasons they did, but 6 missed the playoffs.
    ❖ 0 QBs who have thrown 35+ TD passes in a single season has won the Superbowl that year since the turn of the Millennium, which is about when NFL began to be promoted as ďa passing league.Ē
    ❖ Youíre statistically more likely to go further in the playoffs if your QB throws 35-39 TDs in a single season than 40-49.
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    There’s no correlation or causation between touchdowns thrown and winning the super bowl. You’re not “more statistically likely” to win the Super Bowl with 35-39 TDs. Throwing less touchdowns throughout the season doesn’t mean you’re less likely to win the Super Bowl. That does not correlate.

    Correct, no quarterback who’s thrown 50 TDs in one season has won a Super Bowl that season. But only three quarterbacks in the history of the game, so we’re talking about upwards of 50,000 quarterbacks seasons, has thrown for 50 TDs. The sample size is so minutely small that there’s simply no conclusion to draw.

    What we can say is that all three quarterbacks to do it have won a Super Bowl in their career. And only 9 quarterbacks have thrown for 40 TDs or more, and six of those have won a Super Bowl. Marino, Luck and Stafford are the three who have thrown 40 touchdowns and have not won a Super Bowl in their career. Marino is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever live.

    What we can say about those levels of production and correlate it to winning, is that to sustain long term winning, it’s a good thing to have one of those guys on your team.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

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    AZ, I'd recommend considering sample size when you are doing statistical analysis. Nothing you posted has a sample size big enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    What we can say about those levels of production and correlate it to winning, is that to sustain long term winning, it’s a good thing to have one of those guys on your team.
    What can also be said is that being overly dependant on a single person to single handedly win games might work during the regular season, but the reason fewer TD passes usually results in more SB wins is because a sufficient running game that can take the pressure off the QB is as important as every in win SBs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    AZ, I'd recommend considering sample size when you are doing statistical analysis. Nothing you posted has a sample size big enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from.
    The purpose of posting my observations is to get people asking why they contradict the conventional thinking that the more TDs you QB throws the better your chances of winning a superbowl. The OP is nothing more then a conversation starter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    What can also be said is that being overly dependant on a single person to single handedly win games might work during the regular season, but the reason fewer TD passes usually results in more SB wins is because a sufficient running game that can take the pressure off the QB is as important as every in win SBs.
    16 of the last 19 super bowls have featured either Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Ben Roethlisberger. Having a QB is kinda important.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    The purpose of posting my observations is to get people asking why they contradict the conventional thinking that the more TDs you QB throws the better your chances of winning a superbowl. The OP is nothing more then a conversation starter.
    No one has ever said that more TDs = more super bowls. What people have said is that you need an elite QB to consistently contend for titles, and that has pretty much been true throughout history. You can count on one hand the number of teams who have had 5+ years straight of super bowl contending success with bad QB play.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    16 of the last 19 super bowls have featured either Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Ben Roethlisberger. Having a QB is kinda important.
    It helps when teams are demanding average QBs to carry the load of HoFers, instead of building their O around their elite RBs, basically eliminates about 2/3 of the teams before the season even begins. Nevertheless, there are signs that more and more owners are figuring out that modern Ds aren't designed to stop elite running games and are starting to hire coaches that will build Os around elite RBs (Ravens, Titans, 49ers, etc.).
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    It helps when teams are demanding average QBs to carry the load of HoFers, instead of building their O around their elite RBs, basically eliminates about 2/3 of the teams before the season even begins. Nevertheless, there are signs that more and more owners are figuring out that modern Ds aren't designed to stop elite running games and are starting to hire coaches that will build Os around elite RBs (Ravens, Titans, 49ers, etc.).
    Yet Brady, Manning, Wilson, and Mahomes have won 6 of the last 7 super bowls.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    It helps when teams are demanding average QBs to carry the load of HoFers, instead of building their O around their elite RBs, basically eliminates about 2/3 of the teams before the season even begins. Nevertheless, there are signs that more and more owners are figuring out that modern Ds aren't designed to stop elite running games and are starting to hire coaches that will build Os around elite RBs (Ravens, Titans, 49ers, etc.).
    I don't buy this.

    The Ravens sport a MVP QB. The Titans went on a miracle run in the postseason and didn't make the SB. The Niners have an elite offense, and don't have an elite QB, but there's not an Adrian Peterson back there. The Niners had the best talent across the board in the NFL, including defense.

    The Chiefs beat all of those teams last year, if memory serves. Granted the Ravens were in the regular season, but Baltimore wasn't good enough to square off in the AFCCG game. The Titans upset them. And then promptly lost to the Chiefs. The biggest difference in that game was between QB's.

    The Titans also just paid Tannehill a bunch of money, which indicates that even one of the teams you cite to covets QB play, even if they likely signed a guy who can't give them that. Strange move.

    So even if you're right, Mahomes is so good he can beat all the teams that you're saying are heading in the right direction. And, moreover, one of those teams has a MVP QB.

    If we limit it to just Mahomes, I don't know what else the guy could do. If we expand it, then the bigger landscape shows us that...QB's win games. And the teams that even draft a young Qb and exploit the cheap contract deal end up resigning their guys to top dollar deals afterwards? Why aren't they in a rush to let their guy walk and just draft another QB?
    I'm smooth with it because I know what to do with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Yet Brady, Manning, Wilson, and Mahomes have won 6 of the last 7 super bowls.
    GM's are in a tough spot because it's hard to find a QB in the first place. Then it's hard to build a team around them good enough to contend for a SB. Then it's hard to pay the QB and keep the other players who are big contributors. Then again, if you find the right QB, you get to have multiple windows at SB contention. I don't want to go into a game and feel like my QB is just outclassed. Yeah, not everyone can have a top five QB of all-time, but if the other team has a productive QB who is easily going into Canton, and I have a young but talented production QB like Watson -he's the first one who comes to mind- then at least you have a great QB who can make some plays and keep you in it.
    I'm smooth with it because I know what to do with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Yet Brady, Manning, Wilson, and Mahomes have won 6 of the last 7 super bowls.
    Von Miller & the Broncos D is the reason that Manning was on the team that won that SB, in spite of all of mounting injuries. Wilson had Marshawn Lynch and an elite D. Although the Seahawks continue to be playoff contenders year after year, haven't won a playoff game since the part ways with "Beast Mode."
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    Von Miller & the Broncos D is the reason that Manning was on the team that won that SB, in spite of all of mounting injuries. Wilson had Marshawn Lynch and an elite D. Although the Seahawks continue to be playoff contenders year after year, haven't won a playoff game since the part ways with "Beast Mode."
    So what alternative do these teams have? Are you saying KC should let Mahomes walk instead of paying him, and just hope they can find a suitable replacement? Because I can guarantee you that 0/32 GMs would take that route.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    Von Miller & the Broncos D is the reason that Manning was on the team that won that SB, in spite of all of mounting injuries. Wilson had Marshawn Lynch and an elite D. Although the Seahawks continue to be playoff contenders year after year, haven't won a playoff game since the part ways with "Beast Mode."
    The Broncos continued to have that dominant defense for three more seasons and didn't sniff shit. There are four fluky instances of a team's defense going off for three or four games and winning a Super Bowl. Having an elite quarterback is the biggest, most important piece to long term success and winning Super Bowls.
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    The allure of playing with Peyton Manning helped create an influx of talent on that defense via FA. Manning also carried a lot of bad or average teams into the playoffs and took them far. I know this thread isn't about him, but it was nice to finally see a guy who did so much with so little overall around him get bailed out by a great defense.
    I'm smooth with it because I know what to do with it.

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