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Thread: Analysis of Superbowl Winning Quarterback

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    So that qualifies him as an elite QB, or a good enough QB that had a great game?
    He falls under the Joe Flacco category. He threw six touchdowns, one INT and threw for 900 yards in three playoff games that year. It's the same type of fluke as the Broncos defense going completely ham and scoring touchdowns throughout the playoffs. Weird things happen in the playoffs.

    The best way to build a longterm, contending football team is by having a Top 5 quarterback. You won't win the Super Bowl every year, but if you reach the divisional round of the playoffs year after year, the chances you win one or two are much better.

    As to the passing yards, that is another statistical anomaly. It is not a causation argument. If you lead the league in passing it does not exclude you from winning the Super Bowl. There's no correlation or causation.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    There’s no correlation or causation between touchdowns thrown and winning the super bowl. You’re not “more statistically likely” to win the Super Bowl with 35-39 TDs. Throwing less touchdowns throughout the season doesn’t mean you’re less likely to win the Super Bowl. That does not correlate.
    Whoa wut?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Whoa wut?
    Your brain is better at this. But I see no correlation between touchdowns thrown and winning the Super Bowl, as in if you throw 50 touchdowns in a season you cannot win the Super Bowl. Where is the error in my logic?
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Read the article I linked above. It goes into far greater depth in terms of the importance of passing and rushing.
    Most of it was incoherent slop, the easiest to expose his assessment of Jim Harbaugh because I'd already been doing research on the fraud that Kaep was.

    2011: 3rd in rushing attempts, 12th in rushing TDs, 31st in passing attempts, 24th in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2011.htm
    2012: 7th in rushing attempts, 6th in rushing TDs, 31st in passing attempts, 16th in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2012.htm
    2013: 3rd in rushing attempts, 4th in rushing TDs, 32nd in passing attempts, 23rd in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2013.htm
    2014: 9th in rushing attempts, 21st in rushing TDs, 30th in passing attempts, 22nd in passing TDs, 5th in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2014.htm

    Conclusion, like I've said over and over again, Harbaugh was old school built on a strong running game & a great D. The job of the QB was to take pressure off the RB & to not turn the ball over.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    Most of it was incoherent slop, the easiest to expose his assessment of Jim Harbaugh because I'd already been doing research on the fraud that Kaep was.

    2011: 3rd in rushing attempts, 12th in rushing TDs, 31st in passing attempts, 24th in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2011.htm
    2012: 7th in rushing attempts, 6th in rushing TDs, 31st in passing attempts, 16th in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2012.htm
    2013: 3rd in rushing attempts, 4th in rushing TDs, 32nd in passing attempts, 23rd in passing TDs, 1st in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2013.htm
    2014: 9th in rushing attempts, 21st in rushing TDs, 30th in passing attempts, 22nd in passing TDs, 5th in INTs: https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...s/sfo/2014.htm

    Conclusion, like I've said over and over again, Harbaugh was old school built on a strong running game & a great D. The job of the QB was to take pressure off the RB & to not turn the ball over.
    Your lack of ability to understand a thorough statistical analysis doesn't make that analysis "slop" or "incoherent". There's a reason the top QBs make about triple what top RBs make, and there is a reason multiple QBs go in the first round every year and RBs hardly ever do, and it's not because all 32 GMs are idiots.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Your lack of ability to understand a thorough statistical analysis doesn't make that analysis "slop" or "incoherent". There's a reason the top QBs make about triple what top RBs make, and there is a reason multiple QBs go in the first round every year and RBs hardly ever do, and it's not because all 32 GMs are idiots.
    Making graphs with a bunch of unlabeled dots is slop, and his assessment of Harbaugh is easily exposed as garbage.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post
    Making graphs with a bunch of unlabeled dots is slop, and his assessment of Harbaugh is easily exposed as garbage.
    It's abundantly clear at this point that no amount of facts or reason will sway you on this. You cherry pick anomalies to make your point, and ignore the overwhelming avalanche of proof that teams with good QBs are consistently better than teams with good RBs.

    I get that you're trying to convince yourself that the Chiefs giving Mahomes a lot of money was the wrong decision, but there is a reason literally every team does it when they have a stud QB who is finishing his rookie deal, and again, it's not because every team is stupid.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    It's abundantly clear at this point that no amount of facts or reason will sway you on this. You cherry pick anomalies to make your point, and ignore the overwhelming avalanche of proof that teams with good QBs are consistently better than teams with good RBs.

    I get that you're trying to convince yourself that the Chiefs giving Mahomes a lot of money was the wrong decision, but there is a reason literally every team does it when they have a stud QB who is finishing his rookie deal, and again, it's not because every team is stupid.
    Wrong, my point is that their more than 1 way to win a football game. You base your game plan who you actually have on your team, not who you wish you had. I was all for us throwing it 40+ times a game with Manning because he was an elite QB. Unless Lock works out, we haven't had 1 since and therefore needed to build an O on who we've actually had, which hasn't been much. If he proves to be an elite QB, let Lock throw the ball 40+ times a game. If not, let the RBs carry a bigger load.

    If 1 of our RBs proves to be elite, then give him as big of a load as he can handle. If you want to know why teams with elite RBs don't win SBs, its because they often get worn out by the end of the season due to excessive use early on. This was a problem that was acknowledged for LaDainian Tomlinson, which has since resulted in almost all teams being more dependant on their RB core instead of just their featured RB. It's not different then pulling you Cy Young caliber pitcher if his pitch count for a game starts getting a little to high so you don't wear him out early in the season. The more you can trust your bullpen, the less wear & tear you on starting rotation.

    A few teams that have dared to go against the norm has had success by combining a playing a style the league isn't designed to stop with the right players to execute that plan. Others have failed because they didn't have the right players to make it happen, just like many teams that are trying to force their average QBs to play like the HoFers that they'll never be. By doing so, I would guess about 2/3 of the league eliminate themselves from SB contention before the season even starts, making it a lot easier for teams with QBs who are HoFers to win more SBs then they otherwise would.
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    Sigh. I give up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Sigh. I give up.
    Good
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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    Your brain is better at this. But I see no correlation between touchdowns thrown and winning the Super Bowl, as in if you throw 50 touchdowns in a season you cannot win the Super Bowl. Where is the error in my logic?
    Oh ok. I'm saying that throwing more touchdowns is going to happen more often with a SB winner than throwing less touchdowns. Carry on.
    Eastwood later said of the transition from a TV western to A Fistful of Dollars: "In Rawhide I did get awfully tired of playing the conventional white hat. The hero who kisses old ladies and dogs and was kind to everybody. I decided it was time to be an antihero."

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  14. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by FanInAZ View Post

    If 1 of our RBs proves to be elite, then give him as big of a load as he can handle. If you want to know why teams with elite RBs don't win SBs, its because they often get worn out by the end of the season due to excessive use early on. This was a problem that was acknowledged for LaDainian Tomlinson, which has since resulted in almost all teams being more dependant on their RB core instead of just their featured RB. It's not different then pulling you Cy Young caliber pitcher if his pitch count for a game starts getting a little to high so you don't wear him out early in the season. The more you can trust your bullpen, the less wear & tear you on starting rotation.
    I know I said I was done, but I reread this, and you kind of proved the point we're all making with this paragraph.

    The fact that you can just have a stable of decent running backs and do well enough is precisely why the QB is so much more valuable. You have to have a stud QB to consistently contend, and it's why guys like Mahomes fetch the money they do.

    You can win with a good running game and defense, but if you look back historically, those teams are almost always one-off type champs, and can rarely contend consistently year after year.

    You used the Titans as an example as a team that "bucked the trend" and won running the ball this year but you know what they just did? They paid their QB a lot of money.

    You also praised the 49ers, both this year and under harbaugh, for winning with running, but you know why they have lost their last two super bowls? Because Kap couldn't match Flacco in that game, and Jimmy G melted in the 4th quarter while Mahomes shined.

    You can have your good defense and running game all you want, I'll take the elite QB and take my chances, and I'm usually going to come out ahead.
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