Thread: Analysis of Superbowl Winning Quarterback

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

The Broncos continued to have that dominant defense for three more seasons and didn't sniff shit. There are four fluky instances of a team's defense going off for three or four games and winning a Super Bowl. Having an elite quarterback is the biggest, most important piece to long term success and winning Super Bowls.

Well, if your lacking at QB, you can make up for it at RB. When we won the SB in 2015, in spite of our poor play at QB, we also had a pair of effective RBs. Did we have such RBs during the 3 following years?

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

Well, if your lacking at QB, you can make up for it at RB. When we won the SB in 2015, in spite of our poor play at QB, we also had a pair of effective RBs. Did we have such RBs during the 3 following years?

Dude, we didn't suck the next 3 years because of our lack of running backs. If you want to do an analysis, let's see the last time the leading rusher in the NFL won or even sniffed a title.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

Well, if your lacking at QB, you can make up for it at RB.

No. Good grief, no.

Originally Posted by Poet

The allure of playing with Peyton Manning helped create an influx of talent on that defense via FA. Manning also carried a lot of bad or average teams into the playoffs and took them far. I know this thread isn't about him, but it was nice to finally see a guy who did so much with so little overall around him get bailed out by a great defense.

I believe Elway was 1 of the Greatest QBs ever because he carried teams light on tallent to 3 SBs in 4 years, but didn't win a SB until he got Terrell Davis.

Last NFL rushing leader to play in a Super Bowl was Shaun Alexander in 2005, and they lost. Last one to win a Super Bowl was TD in 1998. Having an elite runner is far less of a predictor of success than having an elite passer.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

No. Good grief, no.

Then how did the Eagles win their SB? It may be an exception, but it has happened, in spite of the fact that so few teams try that route.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

Then how did the Eagles win their SB? It may be an exception, but it has happened, in spite of the fact that so few teams try that route.

Well the Eagles were in the middle of what was likely to be a MVP run from their star QB. Then the SB happened and Foles had the game of his life and played like an elite QB. The way I view it, it was more about a fluky QB driven win than anything the RB did.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

Then how did the Eagles win their SB? It may be an exception, but it has happened, in spite of the fact that so few teams try that route.

What?

Nick Foles threw for almost 400 yards and 3 TDs.

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

I believe Elway was 1 of the Greatest QBs ever because he carried teams light on tallent to 3 SBs in 4 years, but didn't win a SB until he got Terrell Davis.

I believe the league has changed so much since then. To the point where arguably the best RB, Zeke, got paid according to his production and people laughed at his deal. People argued the deal made sense via the short window the Cowboys had. Back in the day the Steelers didn't hesitate to pay Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin got paid, etc. A little further back than that and Emmitt Smith got paid. Etc. Shit, I think the last time an elite RB was on a consistent SB contender was Tomlinson.

AZ, this article is from 2014, but it's recent enough to be a good indicator. It simply blows your theory to smitherines.

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/...-the-playoffs/

When it comes to winning in the NFL, passing is king. Rushing hardly matters.

To quantify this, our football obsessed culture must look past misleading statistics such as rush yards per game. Teams with the lead run the ball to take time off the clock. Any team can rush for 100 yards if they run it 50 times.

To measure true skill, it is better to look at efficiency metrics like yards per attempt. A team can’t fake their way to 5 yards per carry by running the ball more.

Here, efficiency for passing and rushing is defined as yards gained per attempt on offense minus yards allowed per attempt on defense. Higher values indicate more team strength. Sacks count as pass attempts, and these negative yards lower pass efficiency on offense.

From the left panel, playoff teams excel in passing, both throwing the ball on offense and preventing the pass on defense. Only 15 of 120 playoff teams in this era allowed more yards per pass attempt than they gained.

The visual also highlights teams that played in the Super Bowl. Eight of the ten Super Bowl champions were among the NFL’s elite in pass efficiency. However, excellence in the air does not guarantee playoff success. The New York Giants in 2007 and Baltimore in 2012 won the Super Bowl despite subpar pass efficiency.

While the importance of passing in the NFL will not surprise anyone, the insignificance of rushing might. The visual for rush efficiency shows playoff teams as a random scatter of positive and negative values for their regular season statistics. A strong run game on offense and defense does not help a team make the playoffs.

Moreover, teams with a high rush efficiency do not suddenly become clutch in the playoffs. Almost half of the teams that played in the Super Bowl allowed more yards per carry than they gained. In 2006, Indianapolis won the Super Bowl while having the worst rush efficiency in the NFL. Green Bay in 2010 and the New York Giants in 2011 weren’t much better.

How much better are these new guesses? Not much. The error only drops from 3.1 wins to 3.03 wins. In technical jargon, rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly.

The results get better using pass efficiency, as shown in the left panel. The error in estimating wins drops from 3.1 to 1.96. Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL. The strong relationship is clear from the visual.

Especially note the bolded parts above in the last quote box, AZ

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Last NFL rushing leader to play in a Super Bowl was Shaun Alexander in 2005, and they lost. Last one to win a Super Bowl was TD in 1998. Having an elite runner is far less of a predictor of success than having an elite passer.

Unless I overlooked something, no QB that's led the league in passing yards has won a SB:
https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...ar_by_year.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

Unless I overlooked something, no QB that's led the league in passing yards has won a SB:
https://aws.pro-football-reference.c...ar_by_year.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/

Read the article I linked above. It goes into far greater depth in terms of the importance of passing and rushing.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

What?

Nick Foles threw for almost 400 yards and 3 TDs.

So that qualifies him as an elite QB, or a good enough QB that had a great game?

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

So that qualifies him as an elite QB, or a good enough QB that had a great game?

But he had to put up an insane game like he was a great QB to beat a great QB.