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Thread: Who's #4?

  1. #1
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    Default Who's #4?

    The College Football Playoff has three pretty obvious entrants but who should join them:

    1. LSU....undefeated and needs only to win the SEC Championship Game to be the 1 or 2 seed.
    2. Ohio State...the remaining undefeated Big 10 team who looks more unstoppable each week. Still some upset possibilities ahead but they look like they can handle it.
    3. Clemson...not their best year but good enough to get through the rest of the ACC schedule undefeated.

    But who is #4?

    * Oklahoma? They lost to Kanasas State and have had to survive last second upset bids by Iowa St. and Baylor the past two weeks.
    * Alabama? On paper, they might be worthy but they won't win their division, much less their conference, and now must survive with their backup QB.
    * Oregon? Only one loss in the season's opening week to Auburn but their schedule hasn't been that challenging.
    * Utah? Only one loss (7 points at USC) but, like Oregon, that Pac-12 schedule hurts them. Oregon and Utah are on a collision course in the championship game which will knock out one.
    * Georgia? Only loss was in OT to South Carolina and they could still get a second loss against LSU in the conference championship.
    * Memphis State/Cincinnati? Whichever becomes the AAC champ. Each has one loss and neither looks as good as the snubbed UCF teams of the past two years.
    * Boise St? Is it time to give the original cinderella school a chance at the glass slipper?

    Is the CFP essentially a three-conference playoff since the Big XII and the Pac-12 have gone to shit?
    I miss the old Mile High Stadium.

  2. #2

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    Oklahoma, if they win out, should get in. They've several quality wins and had a brutal schedule.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    It's obviously not going to be any of the non power 5 schools, that's just silly to even mention them as candidates. All of them having losses completely eliminates them.

    This is the actual list of teams that still have a shot to get in past those big 3: Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah. In no particular order. There would have to be an insane amount of chaos for anyone outside that list for anyone else to have a shot.

    Here is how everyone in that list could get in:

    Georgia: They have the tidiest path. Win out, beat LSU in the title game. This probably puts both they and LSU in.

    Oregon: win out, beat a one loss Utah in the Pac 12 title game, and have Georgia lose to LSU in the SEC title game.

    Utah: Same as above, with them beating Oregon.

    Oklahoma: They need some help. They have to win out, Georgia has to lose, Ohio State needs to win out, and the Pac 12 needs to have a 2 loss champ. That's a lot of things, but they all could easily happen, the Pac 12 having a 2 loss champ being least likely.

    Minnesota/Penn State: They both have the same path in. Win out, beating Ohio State along the way, finish as a one loss Big 10 champ. This could very well vault either team in regardless of what else happens, because they just take Ohio State's spot in the 4. Clean and easy.

    Alabama: I think they need the most help of this group. They need Georgia to lose, they need Oklahoma to lose, they need Ohio State to win out, and they need a 2 loss Pac 12 champ. That's the only way I see them getting in.

    So that's it. That's your list of who could still get in and what they would have to do to make it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
    Oklahoma, if they win out, should get in. They've several quality wins and had a brutal schedule.
    Huh??? Their non-conf was Houston (currently 3-7), South Dakota (currently 4-7) and UCLA (currently 4-6). The Big XII is a sea of mediocrity. WTF "brutal schedule" are you talking about?
    I miss the old Mile High Stadium.

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    Yeah Oklahoma, as it sits, is just behind Georgia and the Pac 12 champ in the pecking order, and I just don't see how they get in if either of those teams finish as a one loss conference champ.

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    The bias against non-Power 5 schools is obvious and, frankly, the CFP committee won't support a school like Baylor, Minnesota or Utah either because, in their minds, the only schools that need apply are football factories with large fan bases that travel well. Prove me wrong about that. So, that narrows the list to Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and maybe Oregon. None of the others would get in even if they farted $1000 bills at halftime.
    I miss the old Mile High Stadium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrangeHoof View Post
    The bias against non-Power 5 schools is obvious and, frankly, the CFP committee won't support a school like Baylor, Minnesota or Utah either because, in their minds, the only schools that need apply are football factories with large fan bases that travel well. Prove me wrong about that. So, that narrows the list to Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and maybe Oregon. None of the others would get in even if they farted $1000 bills at halftime.
    Washington and Michigan State, nether of which are "football factories" have made the playoffs in this 4 team era, so I don't buy that argument. If Minnesota wins out, that gives them wins over Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. That's 3 massive wins, and a very forgivable close road loss to Iowa. That would put them right in the mix to get in.

    Utah will also absolutely be in the mix if they win out and beat Oregon.

    This whole "the committee is biased against smaller schools" argument just really doesn't have any basis in reality that I've seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrangeHoof View Post
    The bias against non-Power 5 schools is obvious and, frankly, the CFP committee won't support a school like Baylor, Minnesota or Utah either because, in their minds, the only schools that need apply are football factories with large fan bases that travel well. Prove me wrong about that. So, that narrows the list to Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and maybe Oregon. None of the others would get in even if they farted $1000 bills at halftime.
    Maybe those schools should schedule harder competition?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, it means they won out.

    They beat Texas when Texas was ranked. They'd also have played and beaten Oklahoma State, who they play in two weeks. If that happens, that's three wins over top 25 teams. That would be as many wins over top 25 teams as Georgia. Georgia lost in double overtime to South Carolina. Oklahoma lost to Kansas State. Neither of those are good losses.

    Regarding Baylor, Oklahoma beat Baylor. So why would Baylor get in over them?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    I'm saying Baylor would never get in even if they went undefeated because they are a tiny religious school and not Oklahoma or Texas. Only Notre Dame gets to be a tiny religious school (with their own national tv contract on a major broadcaster) that can make the CFP.
    I miss the old Mile High Stadium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
    If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, it means they won out.

    They beat Texas when Texas was ranked. They'd also have played and beaten Oklahoma State, who they play in two weeks. If that happens, that's three wins over top 25 teams. That would be as many wins over top 25 teams as Georgia. Georgia lost in double overtime to South Carolina. Oklahoma lost to Kansas State. Neither of those are good losses.

    Regarding Baylor, Oklahoma beat Baylor. So why would Baylor get in over them?
    Baylor won't get in. Schedule is just way too weak. Oklahoma's problem is that the committee has already said they think both Pac12 teams are ahead of Oklahoma in the pecking order, and whoever wins that will have a win over the other. So I'm not really sure how Oklahoma jumps either given the schedules these teams all have left. Same with Georgia. If they win out and beat LSU, they are 100% in and the playoff is set.

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    Default

    Currently i would say Georgia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northman View Post
    Currently i would say Georgia.
    They definitely have the inside track and are probably the only team on the outside that top 3 has full control of their own destiny, other than maybe Penn State.

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    I'm not really sure, but you bet your ass I'm ready to be outraged about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    Baylor won't get in. Schedule is just way too weak. Oklahoma's problem is that the committee has already said they think both Pac12 teams are ahead of Oklahoma in the pecking order, and whoever wins that will have a win over the other. So I'm not really sure how Oklahoma jumps either given the schedules these teams all have left. Same with Georgia. If they win out and beat LSU, they are 100% in and the playoff is set.
    Listen, that makes sense to me, and I get it. But, I can hope. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

    Mostly off of those odds which put us at 35%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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