Thread: Who's #4?

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Yes. Oregon beating Utah also helps you quite a bit. You also want Ohio State to style.

Regardless of the playoff four, this should be an interesting bracket. Even if Clemson ends up winning it all again, this year feels different, and Clemson feels different this year as well. They're definitely turning it on, and are a great team. Not taking a shot at them.

Originally Posted by King87

Regardless of the playoff four, this should be an interesting bracket. Even if Clemson ends up winning it all again, this year feels different, and Clemson feels different this year as well. They're definitely turning it on, and are a great team. Not taking a shot at them.

Yeah Clemson is the total wildcard here. No one is talking about them but they could easily go in there and beat the shit out of people.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Yeah Clemson is the total wildcard here. No one is talking about them but they could easily go in there and beat the shit out of people.

I'd probably pick them as the outright winner.

Originally Posted by King87

I'd probably pick them as the outright winner.

The big concern with them is that they haven't been in many close games. If they get into a close game they might have a harder time handling it.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

The big concern with them is that they haven't been in many close games. If they get into a close game they might have a harder time handling it.

That's a fair point. I think what helps them out is that every year they have a good amount of returning players. Last year after the championship game someone did a comparison between Clemson's returning NFL caliber talent and other top programs. It wasn't close. They did lose a lot of guys to the draft, but they have a lot of experience. And let's be honest, coaching helps and they might have the best coach in the nation.

But they also have a QB who has been a little inconsistent. And they've played pretty much no one.

Rankings are out.

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Utah
7. Oklahoma
8. Minnesota
9. Baylor
10. Penn State

My thoughts:

First of all, guess we have to add Baylor to the list of teams that still have a shot. Being at 9, they'll have a strong case if they win out. This also bodes well for Oklahoma.

Minnesota at 8 just solidifies that if they win out, they are 100% in.

LSU and Ohio State flipping spots is a little odd. Ohio State did pick up a nice win this week, but they didn't look great in it.

Overall, I think every team in the top 9 still has a shot. Gonna be an awesome next 2 weeks.

Are wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor better than a win over Auburn? I’m asking that to ask is that enough to leap frog Alabama?

The next question is if they see Utah’s resume better now, is a win over Baylor better, and not just better but enough to jump, a win over Oregon?

I don’t feel confident in any answer to any of those questions. I have no clue what the committee will do.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Are wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor better than a win over Auburn? I’m asking that to ask is that enough to leap frog Alabama?

The next question is if they see Utah’s resume better now, is a win over Baylor better, and not just better but enough to jump, a win over Oregon?

I don’t feel confident in any answer to any of those questions. I have no clue what the committee will do.

I think Utah and Oklahoma would both jump Alabama if they win out. Auburn is sneaky not that great. Oregon is their only even kind of decent win. If Alabama beats them, that makes Auburn an 8-4 team. So I don't think that helps as much as beating Oregon or Baylor.

I just can't see the committee actually putting them in with no Tua unless their hand is forced by having two loss Pac 12 and Big 12 champs.

They just interviewed Rob Mullens (the committee chair) and I feel even more confident now that Bama isn't getting in. He said that their guidelines are that for a non conference champ to get in over a conference champ, they have to be unanimously voted by the committee as unequivocally better. So if just one member doesn't think Bama deserves it, they aren't getting in.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

They just interviewed Rob Mullens (the committee chair) and I feel even more confident now that Bama isn't getting in. He said that their guidelines are that for a non conference champ to get in over a conference champ, they have to be unanimously voted by the committee as unequivocally better. So if just one member doesn't think Bama deserves it, they aren't getting in.

I guess my confusion on their rankings, then, is why isn’t Oklahoma ahead of Alabama already? Alabama’s resume is not very good this year. They have no Top 25 wins. Best win is A&M, and would be Auburn if they win this week. Oklahoma has a win over Baylor. They seem to be going off best loss, and not best win.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

I guess my confusion on their rankings, then, is why isn’t Oklahoma ahead of Alabama already? Alabama’s resume is not very good this year. They have no Top 25 wins. Best win is A&M, and would be Auburn if they win this week. Oklahoma has a win over Baylor. They seem to be going off best loss, and not best win.

I'd say they probably think Alabama is slightly better than Utah or Oklahoma, but if one of those becomes a one loss conference champ, that becomes the thing that pushes them over since they don't consider Bama unequivocally better. For now, even if it's just a 7-6 vote for Bama, they get the nod. But if they are being compared to a conference champ, it has to be 13-0 to put Bama in.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

I'd say they probably think Alabama is slightly better than Utah or Oklahoma, but if one of those becomes a one loss conference champ, that becomes the thing that pushes them over since they don't consider Bama unequivocally better. For now, even if it's just a 7-6 vote for Bama, they get the nod. But if they are being compared to a conference champ, it has to be 13-0 to put Bama in.

Now Alabama will get in over both, and everything we thought we knew about what he said about how they do things will completely flip, because that seems to be how No. 4 has gone in all this.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Now Alabama will get in over both, and everything we thought we knew about what he said about how they do things will completely flip, because that seems to be how No. 4 has gone in all this.

I'll be stunned if they get in. Right now, Oklahoma seems to be in the best spot. If it's chalk the rest of the way, I think they get that last spot. Honestly though, if there is ever a year where a team would be fine missing out, it might be this one. I think Ohio State will slaughter whomever gets that 4 spot.

We're now down to 7 teams still alive: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor.

All the scenarios are pretty straightforward except for a couple.

1. LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Utah and either big 12 team win. Then the committee has an incredibly tough decision between Utah and the big 12 champ. Could really see it going either way, with Oklahoma being more likely if they win, and Utah being more likely if Baylor wins.

2. Georgia, Wisconsin, and Utah win. Then you have Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Utah, and the Big 12 champ all with one loss. This is the chaos scenario. I think Georgia/Clemson would be 1/2 in some order in this scenario, and if both lose close it's probably LSU and Ohio State in those last two spots. The fact that Utah and Big 12 team would each have a conference title would make it such a tough call for those last two spots. But I think LSU and Ohio State would still be considered "unequivocally better" by the committee than Utah and B12 champ.

Any other scenarios are pretty straightforward. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia all control their destiny and are 100% in win wins. Utah, Baylor, and Oklahoma need LSU to beat Georgia to really open to that 4th spot.

It's also entirely possible that Utah is drawing dead if the committee really likes the Big 12 champ.

Had Oklahoma lost, Alabama would have still had a theoretically possible path in. The Big 12 champ being guaranteed to have one loss locks them out though.