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Thread: Who's #4?

  1. #31
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    But on the other hand, if Oklahoma wins out and you have a one loss Pac 12 champ and a one loss Alabama sitting there there are going to be some tense moments in that committee room and two pissed off fanbases at the end.

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    It's fun to imagine some of the chaos scenarios though. My favorite one is if Georgia beats LSU, Penn State beats Ohio State, and OU and Oregon win out.

    Then you have undefeated Clemson at the top, followed by LSU, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Alabama. 7 one loss teams for 3 spots. That would be chaos.

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  4. #33
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    Oklahoma still behind Bama, Oregon, Utah, and Penn State. That Baylor win clearly did not impress the committee all that much. At this point, I don't see how they jump up. Whoever wins the Pac 12 is going to add a more impressive win to their resume than Oklahoma possibly can the rest of the year.

    It also doesn't look like the committee is going to penalize Alabama for losing Tua, which isn't great for OU either.

  5. #34

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    Well, I’m done. Maybe next year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    It's fun to imagine some of the chaos scenarios though. My favorite one is if Georgia beats LSU, Penn State beats Ohio State, and OU and Oregon win out.

    Then you have undefeated Clemson at the top, followed by LSU, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Alabama. 7 one loss teams for 3 spots. That would be chaos.
    If that happens, I think they will fall back on the conference champ card which means Georgia, the Big 10 winner (if they still have one loss) and either Oklahoma or Oregon. Currently, the committee gives the edge to Oregon (#6) over Oklahoma (#9) and it might mean something that Oregon's lone loss would be a Week 1 loss to ranked Auburn at a neutral site (imagine the howls if Bama beats Auburn but sees the Ducks get the bid over them). Kansas St., the team that upset Oklahoma, is currently unranked.
    I miss the old Mile High Stadium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrangeHoof View Post
    If that happens, I think they will fall back on the conference champ card which means Georgia, the Big 10 winner (if they still have one loss) and either Oklahoma or Oregon. Currently, the committee gives the edge to Oregon (#6) over Oklahoma (#9) and it might mean something that Oregon's lone loss would be a Week 1 loss to ranked Auburn at a neutral site (imagine the howls if Bama beats Auburn but sees the Ducks get the bid over them). Kansas St., the team that upset Oklahoma, is currently unranked.
    LSU is locked in even if they lose to Georgia. Their body of work would still be the best of any one loss team. The committee has let in two teams from the same conference multiple times. I can guarantee you LSU isn't getting left out if they make it through unbeaten but lose to Georgia.

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    Ryen Russillo had the chair of the selection committee on his podcast this week. It's a great listen and I'd recommend it for anyone curious about how the ranking process works.

    It also really dispels a lot of the conspiracy theories often floated in here about how the committee looks at how other polls rank teams or that they favor bigger schools/fanbases. I'm sure the people who believe those conspiracy theories will just dismiss it as the guy lying, but it's a great listen nonetheless.

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  10. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    It's obviously not going to be any of the non power 5 schools, that's just silly to even mention them as candidates. All of them having losses completely eliminates them.

    This is the actual list of teams that still have a shot to get in past those big 3: Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah. In no particular order. There would have to be an insane amount of chaos for anyone outside that list for anyone else to have a shot.

    Here is how everyone in that list could get in:

    Georgia: They have the tidiest path. Win out, beat LSU in the title game. This probably puts both they and LSU in.

    Oregon: win out, beat a one loss Utah in the Pac 12 title game, and have Georgia lose to LSU in the SEC title game.

    Utah: Same as above, with them beating Oregon.

    Oklahoma: They need some help. They have to win out, Georgia has to lose, Ohio State needs to win out, and the Pac 12 needs to have a 2 loss champ. That's a lot of things, but they all could easily happen, the Pac 12 having a 2 loss champ being least likely.

    Minnesota/Penn State: They both have the same path in. Win out, beating Ohio State along the way, finish as a one loss Big 10 champ. This could very well vault either team in regardless of what else happens, because they just take Ohio State's spot in the 4. Clean and easy.

    Alabama: I think they need the most help of this group. They need Georgia to lose, they need Oklahoma to lose, they need Ohio State to win out, and they need a 2 loss Pac 12 champ. That's the only way I see them getting in.

    So that's it. That's your list of who could still get in and what they would have to do to make it.
    Well we can now cull this list a bit. Past the big 3, there are currently 5 teams left with a reasonable shot at that 4th spot: Georgia, Oklahoma, Utah, Minnesota, Alabama. I guess Baylor has a very slim chance, but they would need a million things to break their way, so I won't include them for now.

    Georgia still has the same direct path in: win out.

    Oklahoma is probably next in line now. I think they would probably pass a one loss Utah given their likely title game opponents. They do still need Georgia to lose.

    Utah is next, they need to win out and have Oklahoma and Georgia lose.

    Minnesota still has a fairly direct path in. Beat Wisconsin then Ohio State in the Big 10 title game. That game will effectively be a playoff, so I don't think they really need help from anyone else to get in.

    Alabama is still alive. If the Pac 12 and Big 12 both wind up with 2 loss champs (or even if Baylor is a one loss Big 12 champ) and Georgia loses, Alabama likely slides in with one loss.

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    Lol Oregon with their annual choke job.

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    Oklahoma should get in ahead of Georgia. We've had a tougher overall schedule, assuming we win out. By we, I mean, of course, me and my mancrush for Riley.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
    Oklahoma should get in ahead of Georgia. We've had a tougher overall schedule, assuming we win out. By we, I mean, of course, me and my mancrush for Riley.
    If Georgia beats LSU you aren't getting in over them. That would give them two wins (LSU, UF) over teams that will likely FINISH the season in the top 10. How many of those will Oklahoma have? Plus they would be a one loss SEC champ, which is basically an auto bid.

    You need Georgia to lose to have any shot. Or you need Ohio State or Clemson to get stunned.

  15. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    If Georgia beats LSU you aren't getting in over them. That would give them two wins (LSU, UF) over teams that will likely FINISH the season in the top 10. How many of those will Oklahoma have? Plus they would be a one loss SEC champ, which is basically an auto bid.

    You need Georgia to lose to have any shot. Or you need Ohio State or Clemson to get stunned.
    At a certain point production needs to come into play. Yeah, the dogs might have a more top heavy wins, but we have more quality wins over all. Georgia lost to an okay South Carolina team and we lost to an okay Kansas State team. If we win out and they lose to LSU, the Sooners had just as good as a year as Georgia. I'm not opposed to a two SEC playoff. But I am opposed if it's a two loss team.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
    At a certain point production needs to come into play. Yeah, the dogs might have a more top heavy wins, but we have more quality wins over all. Georgia lost to an okay South Carolina team and we lost to an okay Kansas State team. If we win out and they lose to LSU, the Sooners had just as good as a year as Georgia. I'm not opposed to a two SEC playoff. But I am opposed if it's a two loss team.
    A two loss team will not make the playoffs this year unless total chaos happens.

  17. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
    A two loss team will not make the playoffs this year unless total chaos happens.
    So what you're telling me is that I need me some LSU Tigers to style.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

  18. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by King87 View Post
    So what you're telling me is that I need me some LSU Tigers to style.
    Yes. Oregon beating Utah also helps you quite a bit. You also want Ohio State to style.

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