The biggest moral of the story if you're a fan of one of these teams on the outside looking in is that you want LSU and Ohio State to win out. Both would still have a very strong resume as a 1 loss team, especially LSU, and whoever beats either of those teams likely leapfrogs everyone. Oklahoma has zero shot to get in if either Ohio State or LSU lose in my opinion, because either team with 1 loss likely still stays ahead of Oklahoma, and whoever beats said team also gets in head of them.
538 is a bit more bullish on OU's chances than I am then I guess. I just don't see them jumping a 1 loss Pac 12 team. Tonight's poll will tell us a lot. If OU is still behind both Pac 12 teams, I think they have zero shot of passing them. If the Baylor win was enough for the committee to bump them past both Pac 12 teams, then I'm probably wrong and OU is in the driver's seat behind Georgia.
What Oklahoma has going for it "if they win out" is the Big 12 championship game. That would be a likely rematch against Baylor and a they would also have a win over current top 25 OSU.
Honestly, I question whether OU can win out. They have to play at OSU, who is playing well these past few weeks, and survive a rematch against a very good Baylor team. I wouldn't bet on it at this point.
The Baylor wins help, but the fact the the committee had them at 12 despite being 9-0 tells you they don't really think much of them. They really have beaten absolutely no one. So it would be 2 nice wins for OU to have, but that loss to Kansas State is just going to be an anchor compared to, say, Oregon who only lost to Auburn and would have a win over a Utah team that would be better than any win OU has. The rankings tonight should give us some more clarity though.
Let's take a more extreme example. Let's say you play the #1 team in the nation in week one and beat them. That's a great feather in your cap, you beat the #1 team! But say that team was just really overrated, falls flat, goes 5-7 and finishes unranked and didn't even make a bowl game. The committee isn't going to sit there and say "well they were number one when you beat them 3 months ago, so that's a great win!" They'll have the context of the entire season to see the team you beat really wasn't that good.
Now that's an extreme example, but the principle applies. I don't really think the committee cares how other polls ranked teams earlier in the season.
I try not to get worked up over these rankings until the end of the season. Usually all these questions get answered on the field by the end of the season. It can be kind of fun to do the "what if" game, but in the end, the play on the field usually sorts most of it out.
Agreed, most of this tends to sort itself out most years to where you either have a pretty consensus top 4 or at most 5 teams with a real argument. It really seems like there could be more of a logjam this year, but it might very well just work itself out neatly.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)