Thread: Elway, GM, and the QB position

This seems like the central issue right now for the franchise. Coaching staff and O-line are also important, but we all know the big reason we suck post-Manning is because of the QB position.

Might as well talk about it. Any of you who haven't read the SI article "Elway is looking for himself" might take a peek.

Beginning in 2011, there have been 104 quarterbacks drafted. Many others have joined rosters or practice squads as UDFA. Elway picked his first QB in 2012 and most recent in 2019.

These are the QBs he and his staff arrived upon as the best options for the franchise:

Brock Os - 2012, #57
Zac Dysert - 2014, ~#250
Trevor Siemian - 2015, ~#250
Paxton Lynch - 2016, #26
Chad Kelly - 2017, ~#250
Drew Lock - 2019, #42

UDFA - Caleb Hanie, Kyle Sloter, Brett Rypien (only ones I can recall)

These are notable options that were available when Elway and his team picked a QB early (Osweiler, Lynch, Lock), but were not chosen in favor of Elway's pick:

2012 - Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins
2016 - Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott
2019 - Minshew

Select other QBs during this 2011-2019 era that were overlooked by the Broncos when the Broncos had the opportunity to select them:

Andy Dalton
Tyrod Taylor
Colin Kaep
Jimmy G
Derek Carr
Sean Mannion
DeShone Kizer
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mason Rudolph

The Broncos never had a chance at many of the QBs that came off the board #1 or #2--e.g., Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariotta, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff (I actually spelled it Goof at first, thx Shane), Carson Wentz, Trubisky, Mayfield, and Kyler Murray.

Broncos could probably have packaged and dealt to get: Mahomes, Watson, Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins

I'm just laying out some facts if anyone finds them useful for forming opinions. I don't have a good objective opinion yet.

I do have a highly subjective view that Osweiler and Lynch were terrible draft picks and the full brunt of that failure is what currently plagues the franchise.

One of the central assumptions I would like to challenge is that Elway and his staff have the ability to identify a young QB that a franchise can build around for the future. I am not saying I believe this to be true, only that I want to explore the truth of it.

The funny thing is Oz was the closest he has come to having a "successful" QB. Problem is Oz failed in other areas with the mental aspect of it. Lynch was a huge reach especially when Dak was there but then i myself was not that sold on Dak and still dont know if he can actually carry that team when needed. Dysert never actually got a chance to play so he is pretty irrelevant to the discussion. Siemian got it by chance, Kelly looked promising but clearly has the same problem that Sloter has in that no other team feels either one can be their starter over who they already have.

Part One - The Context

Elway liked Oz and PL. There's something about big arms and height that he likes. He also liked TS and CK. He has a respect for guys with limited talent who possess intellect and intangibles. The simple answer to me is that he hasn't been able to find someone who possesses enough physical talent (hard talent) and the mental/grit 'talent's (soft talent). I don't know why. I can't blame him for missing on Wilson because almost everyone did. I do blame him for missing on PL because we apparently knew he was a lazy bum.

In a way, I respect his approach. He's tried everything. Young talented guys, young gritty guys, older talented players (Flacco) and older gritty guys like CK. I think Flacco right now is good enough to do some damage on a stronger roster. But Flacco was a first round pick and he still wasn't designed or thought to be a guy to carry teams. People forget that when Baltimore drafted JF the thought was he can be good enoguh to win with via a brutal defense.

We don't have that. We HAD that. And that's the issue - JE on some level is either unaware, or unable, or unwilling, to do a full rebuild. The painful part of it is that we've wasted seasons living in a fake contender world. It can take as little as one or two seasons for a full turnaround. If we wanted to do a quasi-rebuild when we were good, we would have had to have traded up for a top shelf QB prospect and sat him behind PM knowing that PM had no interest in mentoring him.

Does it not seem that Elway is ignoring data, eschewing empiricism, and plain ol' floppin it out there when he picks his QBs?

What makes me say this--traits of the QBs he has selected with significant draft capital:

Tall (unusually so)
Athletic-ish
Arm strength

Traits in other QBs he apparently views as impossible to reconcile with winning:

Short/small

Seems like his process relies on his personal gut feel rather than any method or science. (Not saying you need science to do this, just making observations)

Finding a true franchise QB seems like a roulette spin.

Who, (besides Andy Reid) in their right mind, thought Mahomes would turn into what he is? I doubt even Reid dreamed of such success. At the time, virtually everyone thought Reid was off his rocker for trading up so high for him.

Point of data #2 is guys like Tom Brady. Literally nobody saw even a potential HOF career in him.

Meanwhile, there are scores of guys who were "sure things" and flamed out, crushing rebuild attempts.

Elway hasn't found "that guy", but he's in pretty good company. "Those guys" are exceedingly rare.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

Finding a true franchise QB seems like a roulette spin.

Who, (besides Andy Reid) in their right mind, thought Mahomes would turn into what he is? I doubt even Reid dreamed of such success. At the time, virtually everyone thought Reid was off his rocker for trading up so high for him.

Point of data #2 is guys like Tom Brady. Literally nobody saw even a potential HOF career in him.

Meanwhile, there are scores of guys who were "sure things" and flamed out, crushing rebuild attempts.

Elway hasn't found "that guy", but he's in pretty good company. "Those guys" are exceedingly rare.

I agree this is a very difficult thing, and I'm not trying to come down too hard on Elway even though it seems a big failure to not have 'a guy'. Most can't find 'a guy' even when they pick #1 overall. It's crazy hard.

So I'm just exploring this space I guess, and inviting others to do the same.

Part Two - The Subjective Truth

I don't think John Elway is bad at finding or seeing QB talent. I think he's just as average as most people are in his trade. Watson wasn't seen as a can't miss prospect. Wilson wasn't seen as that, either. In fact, Seattle has to go to some pains to make an offense fit his strengths, and I'm of the opinion RW is a top three QB right now. JE just saw what everyone else did - Watson is a mobile guy who might rely on that too much at the pro level even though that's not an issue at the collegiate level. Wilson is small, Oz is big, Wilson has a good arm, Oz has a great arm.

What I BELIEVE to be the reality is that if a QB has enough 'boxes checked on a list' it's just about coaching and support. If your guy has enough talent to be a first rounder (even if he's not a top shelf mandatory first or second pick overall) and he's gritty enough and smart enough, you are what you're made into. Mahomes in Kansas City learned from a good player at QB, and a brilliant HC. Mahomes in Oakland would be something else. Mahomes in Philadelphia would still be scary. Mahomes in Tampa? Probably not, albeit they do have Arians now.

Even if John could see something that others don't, it's hard to believe we could cultivate a rare talent into something great. I'll use Mahomes again - he'd be okay here. We'd think about all his potential and be maddened by it. Maybe a more traditional QB who was can't miss could make it under JE, but that's only if they were as can't miss as Luck. This isn't a slight on Luck, either - Mahomes has/had more X factor but Luck was more likely to succeed because he was more plug and play.

My overall point is that it feels like we'd need dumb luck to solve the QB issue long term with JE running the ship. It doesn't feel like he can think outside the box, nor that he could set up a support system for a young QB if we found one.

I dont think you even have to have a Mahomes or Brady, you can find some guys who are close to that tier and still be very successful. We just cant even find that at this point and are continuing to settle for projects. Its that last part that is killing us right now. Maybe Lock changes that but we shall see.

I mean, i think we can pretty much agree a guy like Stafford would benefit a team like ours but he is also a guy who doesnt really have much on his resume as far as post season success. BUT, he does have a lot more to offer than anyone (and even to a degree Flacco) we have had post Manning.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

Finding a true franchise QB seems like a roulette spin.

Who, (besides Andy Reid) in their right mind, thought Mahomes would turn into what he is? I doubt even Reid dreamed of such success. At the time, virtually everyone thought Reid was off his rocker for trading up so high for him.

Point of data #2 is guys like Tom Brady. Literally nobody saw even a potential HOF career in him.

Meanwhile, there are scores of guys who were "sure things" and flamed out, crushing rebuild attempts.

Elway hasn't found "that guy", but he's in pretty good company. "Those guys" are exceedingly rare.

It feels like it's easier now than ever, though because of the rules. Marcus Mariota is thought to be sucky, but as far as a sucky QB goes his numbers are passable. Garbage talents like Dalton, and I'm willing to admit I was wrong about Cousins, can win you games. Lamar Jackson was taken at the end of the first round. You should at least be able to find someone quasi-decent in the draft. JE hasn't even come close to that.

Originally Posted by King87

It feels like it's easier now than ever, though because of the rules. Marcus Mariota is thought to be sucky, but as far as a sucky QB goes his numbers are passable. Garbage talents like Dalton, and I'm willing to admit I was wrong about Cousins, can win you games. Lamar Jackson was taken at the end of the first round. You should at least be able to find someone quasi-decent in the draft. JE hasn't even come close to that.

Still, it's hard. Sure, it's fun for the first years when you have someone like that on a rookie deal. You get huge value out of the draft, you can sign free agents. Your team improves quickly and if you're lucky the strength of schedule balancing works out and you get to beat up on bad teams. BOOM! You're the toast of the town. You get to style. You're seen as a young gunner. You're in the playoffs.

And then it goes away. You gotta pay your own free agents. That slightly above average QB, when you have a loaded roster, he gets paid too. Now he has to do as much if not more...with less because his above average players left in free agency...I just described some of the promising looking Texan teams pre-Watson, Browns teams via Derek Anderson's 11-5 season, the god forsaken Lions, the Bears with Rex Grossman, the Joe Flacco Ravens, the Bengals (lulz) the Cardinals, etc. etc. etc. Some of those teams signed a journeymen QB like the Cardinals (Palmer) and Bucs (Johnson) and hit deep playoff success.

Originally Posted by Northman

I dont think you even have to have a Mahomes or Brady, you can find some guys who are close to that tier and still be very successful. We just cant even find that at this point and are continuing to settle for projects. Its that last part that is killing us right now. Maybe Lock changes that but we shall see.

Bingo. And that guy is as tough as nails, a huge talent, and respected as a hard worker. I was always impressed with him because I felt like he's overcome more issues than he's caused. In a different time line, he has a SB MVP, a regular season MVP, less injuries, and he's playing for the Packers or Patriots or Steelers. So much is what can your team do for a young hungry QB.

I won't pretend to be able to identify why we failed on those past draft picks, but it's certainly obvious that we're paying the price for those failures right now. Layne isn't wrong; finding a QB is difficult. My main complaint really isn't Elway's failure to do so. But rather his failure to address it as aggressively as he can. Putting lock on IR was pure hubris. I don't care if it's Drew, or if we land someone like Fromm or Herbert next year, but seven needs to commit all out to developing a young guy. Stop wasting freaking time with half ass stop gaps, whether it's Keenum, Flacco, or whatever retread they dig up in the future. John needs to take a deep breath, and accept that we simply don't have that 2015 defense anymore. you don't have to burn the whole thing to the ground, but you do need to rebuild around a young quarterback.

We had The guy we needed in OZ, He just got pissy and had a ego when he was benched for Peyton by Kubes. Had he not bolted to Houston I think the course of the franchise would have been different. No Paxton and prob no VJ....cause OZ would have had a pretty solid first year as the starter with kubes after Peyton and we would have built around that. Instead he ended up on a crappy Houston team in a spread offense, while Denver panicked and drafted Lynch despite obvious red flags.

Us not admitting that failure is why were still in this boat. I think Lock is the guy to get us there, but we need another strong draft with some OL help and we need to get rid of a lot of our dead weight and have a strong FA class as well. Flacco isn't and wasn't ever the answer, but lock does need some time to develop so I get that vet QB move. I just hate Flacco cause he is avg. at best, and now were into the position for far more money then we should have been in my opinion. We really just need to build around a young guy finally