Thread: Believe it or not, Broncos could still grab wild card

Originally Posted by Freyaka

As of right now, we win out, we only need the colts to lose one and for the chargers/chiefs to beat the ravens. or the colts or ravens to lose and the chargers to lose 3.

The second scenario isn't a difficult one since the Chargers have Pitts this week fresh off a stinging loss and no melvin gordon.

I don't think this one necessarily works if the charges lose 3, Ravens lose 1, colts win out, we're out.

Nice thing is the Ravens have a tough schedule. They get an underperforming but dangerous Atlanta team, and the shitty bucs, but have to deal with KC, the sparklers and browns who already beat them once.

Ultimately, 538 has us at about an 11% chance to make the playoffs and I think that's about right. We just need too many things to go right at this point. Winning 5 in a row is tough enough, and we need other help on top of that. It could definitely happen, but I still think we have a letdown in one of these games.

Even this week's game worries me a bit. Cincy is at home with a QB without much tape on him, and we could be due for a letdown after those two big wins. Everyone seems to have this one penciled in as a win, but I hope the team is taking them a little more seriously. I could very well see us all here on Sunday evening feeling stupid for thinking this team had a shot at the playoffs.

Having said all that I think we win the game, but I don't think it will be an easy one.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Even this week's game worries me a bit. Cincy is at home with a QB without much tape on him, and we could be due for a letdown after those two big wins. Everyone seems to have this one penciled in as a win, but I hope the team is taking them a little more seriously. I could very well see us all here on Sunday evening feeling stupid for thinking this team had a shot at the playoffs.

Having said all that I think we win the game, but I don't think it will be an easy one.

It's an early game. If the Broncos are going to lose before the Chargers game, its this one.

Originally Posted by Timmy!

It's an early game. If the Broncos are going to lose before the Chargers game, its this one.

The only two games left that I think are shoe ins are Oakland and SF. The other 3 I could see ways that we lose. I could also see us winning all 5. If nothing else, we'll have some games that mean something, which we haven't really had in a while.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Even this week's game worries me a bit. Cincy is at home with a QB without much tape on him, and we could be due for a letdown after those two big wins. Everyone seems to have this one penciled in as a win, but I hope the team is taking them a little more seriously. I could very well see us all here on Sunday evening feeling stupid for thinking this team had a shot at the playoffs.

Having said all that I think we win the game, but I don't think it will be an easy one.

I feel stupid right now for all the playoff talk... We basically needed an act of god to beat the Steelers, and this is the same team that got blown out by the Jets, and the same coach we've all agreed is mostly incompetent. Absolutely nothing about this team indicates that they are ready to reel off 7 straight wins...

I'm encouraged by two consecutive wins against playoff teams, but the hole they dug themselves is probably too deep to crawl out of at this stage.

Originally Posted by Buff

I feel stupid right now for all the playoff talk... We basically needed an act of god to beat the Steelers, and this is the same team that got blown out by the Jets, and the same coach we've all agreed is mostly incompetent. Absolutely nothing about this team indicates that they are ready to reel off 7 straight wins...

I'm encouraged by two consecutive wins against playoff teams, but the hole they dug themselves is probably too deep to crawl out of at this stage.

I tend to agree. The very soft schedule we have left is probably the biggest reason for the newfound hope, but I agree that 7 straight wins is a tall ask for what is still a flawed team in a lot of areas. If nothing else we're looking good to continue the streak of not having back to back losing seasons, which seemed unfathomable 2 weeks ago.

Any team that is dependent on the misfortunes of other teams has difficult road to the playoffs. Every scenario that puts Denver in playoffs his contingent on two teams losing games (Ravens and Colts). I don't think the Chargers are going completely implode. Leap frogging the Ravens and the Colts seems more plausible than the Chargers imploding. The Ravens have play both Chiefs and the Chargers on the road. The Colts have three divisional road games in their last five.

Oddly enough I think there's actually a better chance of us getting the help we need than of us running the table. If we do win out, I think the other teams around us probably have tough enough schedules that we get in. But winning out is the tough part, and probably not very likely to happen.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

I don't think this one necessarily works if the charges lose 3, Ravens lose 1, colts win out, we're out.

Well, according to the ESPN tool (which could fail to take specific tie breakers into account) that is the way it is. Though when I was figuring it up, I had the ravens 1 loss against the chargers. In that situation it's likely a situation where we have a tie breaker over LAC, LAC has a tiebreaker over BAL and so it goes onto secondary tiebreakers.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

Well, according to the ESPN tool (which could fail to take specific tie breakers into account) that is the way it is. Though when I was figuring it up, I had the ravens 1 loss against the chargers. In that situation it's likely a situation where we have a tie breaker over LAC, LAC has a tiebreaker over BAL and so it goes onto secondary tiebreakers.

Ah yeah wasn't taking 3 or 4 way ties into account.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Ultimately, 538 has us at about an 11% chance to make the playoffs and I think that's about right. We just need too many things to go right at this point. Winning 5 in a row is tough enough, and we need other help on top of that. It could definitely happen, but I still think we have a letdown in one of these games.

We won 6 in a row in 2011 with Tim "freakin" Tebow as the QB, it's certainly possible to do it again. Also, the 49ers won 5 straight (and 6 of 7) to close out last year.

The schedule is set it up for it. It starts on Sunday, this is another test for VJ and this team, they need to go on the road and beat a team they're supossed to beat. In the past, typically this is a game that Bronco teams lose. We always tend to lose games late in the season to teams we have no business losing too.

Off the top of my head, Titans in 2016, Raiders in 2015, Rams in 2014, Chargers in 2013, Bills in 2011, Raiders in 2009, Bills in 2008, 49ers in 2006.... you get the point.

Originally Posted by Mike Hawk

We won 6 in a row in 2011 with Tim "freakin" Tebow as the QB, it's certainly possible to do it again. Also, the 49ers won 5 straight (and 6 of 7) to close out last year.

The schedule is set it up for it. It starts on Sunday, this is another test for VJ and this team, they need to go on the road and beat a team they're supossed to beat. In the past, typically this is a game that Bronco teams lose. We always tend to lose games late in the season to teams we have no business losing too.

Off the top of my head, Titans in 2016, Raiders in 2015, Rams in 2014, Chargers in 2013, Bills in 2011, Raiders in 2009, Bills in 2008, 49ers in 2006.... you get the point.

Of course it's possible, and I said as much. All 5 of those games are winnable, and we'll likely be favored in all 5. It's just tough to win 5 (and it would wind up being 7) straight games in the NFL. The guys on the other side are pros too. I just think we'll slip in a game or two and fall a bit short. We definitely have a real shot to run the table though, and I'm not ruling it out.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Of course it's possible, and I said as much. All 5 of those games are winnable, and we'll likely be favored in all 5. It's just tough to win 5 (and it would wind up being 7) straight games in the NFL. The guys on the other side are pros too. I just think we'll slip in a game or two and fall a bit short. We definitely have a real shot to run the table though, and I'm not ruling it out.

Yep, 8-8 looks like the most likely outcome if I had to guess, as the final Wild Card spot goes to a 9-7 team. The Texans and Chiefs losses will likley haunt us. Hopefully I'm wrong...