Thread: What Percentage Chance Do You Give Of Chad Kelly Becoming the Broncos Starter This Season?

It struck me after the last pre-season game that there is now a good chance, I'd estimate it at about 50% of Chad Kelly becoming the Broncos starter before the end of this season.

And it's not just what we saw in a meaningless pre-season game against a #2 Bears defense that might quite frankly not be very good.

Yes, that throw in a tight window right down the middle to Courtland Sutton is one that Paxton Lynch would never make in 1,000 years. He wouldn't dare.

At this point, I hope the Broncos don't go out and get a veteran QB to be the backup. I'd say there's a good chance that Chad Kelly is the Broncos starting QB by the end of this season. And it's not because he'll be better at any point than Case Keenum.

Even if Keenum is mediocre, he'd still probably perform better as a long term veteran who's played on several different teams and in different systems, than Kelly as a rookie. So, if they do make the switch, it will probably be for a different reason.

No joke. If Case Keenum doesn't have a good year, the team will struggle. If they are losing and out of the playoffs at some point they will want to see what they've got with Chad Kelly. I.E. he could become the starter. Especially, if Vance Joseph is fired during the season, but potentially, even if he is not.

I'd say about 50-50 at this point. You can see them getting it all under control and winning enough games to save Joseph's job, and again you can see them winning 6 games all year, and VJ getting fired at the bye-week.

If it's the latter, or if at some point, Vance is still the coach, but the team is out of the playoffs, then they are going to blow up the team and start over with the younger players. Chad Kelly could easily be the center, most important player on this team in 2 or 3 years.

I'm not predicting that Keenum will struggle, or that Joesph will be fired. I'd say the odds are about 1 in 2 though. I am uncertain how the season will go.

I've heard many sportswriters say that, talent wise, this is an 8-8 team. Well, it it's an 8-8 team just based on analysis of pure talent, the what is it taking coaching into account? Does VJ win them a couple of games and they go 10-6? Or does he lose them a couple of games and they go 6-10?

I can see it going either way. So, I assign a 50% probability that Chad Kelly becomes the starting QB at some point (probably late) in the season.

What probability do you give it?

barring injury 3%

Originally Posted by sneakers

barring injury 3%

Sounds about right

If Denver is winning consistently Chad won’t sniff the field, regardless of how good or bad Keenum plays. A 3 game losing streak that isn’t the defenses fault? Swag is born.

Winning or losing, Chad Kelly won't see the field unless Keenum gets hurt, then again, would Elway try to find a veteran QB sitting on the couch? We saw last year that VJ is very hesitate to pull the starting QB for losing.

In general the NFL uses 50-60 starting QBs per season. There is a decent chance your backup starts a game.

IF the offense becomes putrid over a few games or Case gets hurt. I don't think it will happen. I believe Denver has their QB of the future. I love him. I am excited.

25%.

Because of what Keenum did with Minny last year i dont see the Broncos pulling the plug on him if he has some bad games. But if Case gets hurt than i can see Kelly coming in and playing at that point.

its unfair to be up against this much swag.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

In general the NFL uses 50-60 starting QBs per season. There is a decent chance your backup starts a game.

About where I see it as well. I'd say it's more likely than not that your qb will miss a game at some point during the season, so I'd put Kelly's chance of starting a game this year right around a coin toss. I'd be pretty surprised if he started a game due to Keenum's performance, but anything is possible I guess.

Barring injury, I don't see it happening.

Well, someone has sure changed their stance on Kelly...

The only scenarios that I can see Kelly playing in the regular season is Case getting hurt or Kelly continuing to play good during the preseason and Case plays poorly and becomes a liability to the team. I will add that I think Kelly has the best arm on the team but Cases experience makes him the best option to play right now.

I picked 25% but I think it’s closer to zero. If Keenum is terrible, VJ gets fired, and we are well out of playoff contention, then it’s a possibility. Unless Keenum is either injured or can be squarely blamed for our losing, I doubt swag will see the field.