It struck me after the last pre-season game that there is now a good chance, I'd estimate it at about 50% of Chad Kelly becoming the Broncos starter before the end of this season.
And it's not just what we saw in a meaningless pre-season game against a #2 Bears defense that might quite frankly not be very good.
Yes, that throw in a tight window right down the middle to Courtland Sutton is one that Paxton Lynch would never make in 1,000 years. He wouldn't dare.
At this point, I hope the Broncos don't go out and get a veteran QB to be the backup. I'd say there's a good chance that Chad Kelly is the Broncos starting QB by the end of this season. And it's not because he'll be better at any point than Case Keenum.
Even if Keenum is mediocre, he'd still probably perform better as a long term veteran who's played on several different teams and in different systems, than Kelly as a rookie. So, if they do make the switch, it will probably be for a different reason.
No joke. If Case Keenum doesn't have a good year, the team will struggle. If they are losing and out of the playoffs at some point they will want to see what they've got with Chad Kelly. I.E. he could become the starter. Especially, if Vance Joseph is fired during the season, but potentially, even if he is not.
I'd say about 50-50 at this point. You can see them getting it all under control and winning enough games to save Joseph's job, and again you can see them winning 6 games all year, and VJ getting fired at the bye-week.
If it's the latter, or if at some point, Vance is still the coach, but the team is out of the playoffs, then they are going to blow up the team and start over with the younger players. Chad Kelly could easily be the center, most important player on this team in 2 or 3 years.
I'm not predicting that Keenum will struggle, or that Joesph will be fired. I'd say the odds are about 1 in 2 though. I am uncertain how the season will go.
I've heard many sportswriters say that, talent wise, this is an 8-8 team. Well, it it's an 8-8 team just based on analysis of pure talent, the what is it taking coaching into account? Does VJ win them a couple of games and they go 10-6? Or does he lose them a couple of games and they go 6-10?
I can see it going either way. So, I assign a 50% probability that Chad Kelly becomes the starting QB at some point (probably late) in the season.
What probability do you give it?