Thread: What Percentage Chance Do You Give Of Chad Kelly Becoming the Broncos Starter This Season?

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Maybe say 'Odds that Kelly unseats Keenum this season?' instead of the long ass thing you wrote?

Odds of that are about zero this year. Kelly will play if Keenum is injured.

That would be a stupid question. There is ZERO Chance Kelly would "supplant Keenum."

Obviously IF Keenum plays well Kelly will never see the field - yes, unless Keenum is injured.
Even if Keenum struggles, he's still obviously better than rookie Chad Kelly who has never started an NFL game.

MY POINT was about a completely different matter: what chance they will put Kelly in IF

1. The team is out of contention late in the season and
2. they have to see what they have in Kelly because Elway has to decide whether Kelly is his future franchise QB, or whether he has to go out in the first round in the 2019 draft and draft a QB.

Kind of like the debate about why they didn't put in Paxton Lynch because the team had already seen that Siemian was never going to be a long term franchise QB, and they needed to find out about Lynch.

Unless he really plays well, Keenum is a "transition QB" in Elway's words. Elway is still looking for a long-term answer at QB. Keenum could become that QB if he plays well enough and the team wins of course. I, like every Broncos fan hopes he does.

But, he could be mediocre or the team could just lose enough games they are eliminated from Playoff contention. At that point they would have to put in Chad Kelly to see what they have in him so as to evaluate whether they need to go back in the first round next year and draft a QB.

The entire Keenum experiment was an effort to AVOID doing that - drafting a 1st round QB and developing him for a couple of years. Elway would prefer that if he has to replace Keenum it be Chad Kelly to short-cut the developmental process.

Hi Cugal

Gotcha.

Originally Posted by Cugel

That would be a stupid question. There is ZERO Chance Kelly would "supplant Keenum."

Zero? Really? Zero? That's what you are going with? Ok, tell you what. Give me 100,000 to 1 on those odds. I'll bet a quarter.

Yeah. Keanum would have to cost us a few consecutive losses in a row for that to happen. It's possible but less than 25%.
I'd say 10%

Chad Sloter has a long way to go guys. Let’s not do this every year.

Originally Posted by BeefStew25

Chad Sloter has a long way to go guys. Let’s not do this every year.

It's really unbelievable how this happens every year with these pre season undrafted guys.

Originally Posted by ChubbNYiadom

It's really unbelievable how this happens every year with these pre season undrafted guys.

Chad was drafted, just like your boy Paxton.

I'm going to go back and read some of Yash's 2016/17 evangelizing for Lynch. It's properly aged now and will pair well with prosciutto and disparagement.

Somewhere north of zero percent... but not very far north.

Part of it is injury chance, because I think he'll be the #2 - which is a very large vote of confidence, btw.

Part of it is the Vance Joseph Effect, whereby the whole team can crater at any moment under the slightest of adversity. If they tank the last couple of weeks I could see Chad getting a start.

I'm watching Mayfield play for the Browns right now and don't see anything he does w the ball that Kelly can't do. I certainly hope Chad doesn't get any starts this year though. I'd like him to learn behind Case Keenum for at least this year, getting 2nd team reps, talking to Case about everything he sees on the field and picking his brain for this season.

The arm is there, but I'd like Denver not to suck, and for Kelly to have a chance to absorb the NFL above the shoulders.

I think 1 of the problems we're having here is that some are answering the question in the thread title ("What Percentage Chance Do You Give Of Chad Kelly Becoming the Broncos Starter This Season?"), while others (like me) answered the actual poll question ("What percent chance do you give Chad Kelly starts a game for the Broncos this year (regular season)?").

My answer to the poll question is...

Originally Posted by FanInAZ

I went with 25% because I figure that about the odds of a QB missing at least 1 game due to concussion protocol.

My response to the question in the thread title is to abstain because I've watched enough football over the years that anything is possible on any given Sunday in the NFL. I, as well as a number others that have posted responses in this thread, would have voted for less then 10% if given the option. This would've been because...

a) ..., like I've said in at least 1 or 2 other threads, I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt that last season may be an indication that he may have finally putting it all together. Furthermore, it doesn't worry me that he may still need a little more time to sync up with his new coaches & teammates.

b) ...tearing up 2nd & 3rd string Ds during preseason isn't as great of an accomplishment as some would want to make it out to be, assuming of course that Kelly’s performance qualifies as "tearing it up." In the 1 game that I saw him in, vs the Vikings, I would only rate him as effective vs their scrubs. I couldn't watch the last game, so I have no opinion on how he did against the Bears' back-ups.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I'm going to go back and read some of Yash's 2016/17 evangelizing for Lynch. It's properly aged now and will pair well with prosciutto and disparagement.

Hawg, this is yet another masterful post.

Originally Posted by slim

Chad was drafted, just like your boy Paxton.

Hey man I'm not implying that every drafted guy is good. But good grief if your mr irrelevant or undrafted it's usually for a reason especially at quarterback. Time will tellI on Kelly but if we suck then id rather draft a true franchise quarterback.

Originally Posted by ChubbNYiadom

Hey man I'm not implying that every drafted guy is good. But good grief if your mr irrelevant or undrafted it's usually for a reason especially at quarterback. Time will tellI on Kelly but if we suck then id rather draft a true franchise quarterback.

Mayock had him as a 1st or 2nd round talent who fell because of character concerns. For the most part I trust him. He had Tebow as a 4th rounder. It would seem Kelly has answered both the character and injury questions.

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

Mayock had him as a 1st or 2nd round talent who fell because of character concerns. For the most part I trust him. He had Tebow as a 4th rounder. It would seem Kelly has answered both the character and injury questions.

I was considering posting something like this because I did remember reading something here along these lines when we 1st drafted him, but I don't follow college football or the draft close enough to be confident that I'd get my facts straight.