Thread: History tells us the NFL is terrible at evaluating quarterbacks. Here's what it means for 2018

Originally Posted by CoachChaz

Or...it significantly improves the run game and gives the QB a little extra time. Both of which pay immediate dividends to the offense.

And what is the result of those dividends? It's not that Nelson isn't incredible. It's the bigger picture. We're going to draft a guard, sign an average QB, and that's going to turn around a 5-11 team? I'm focusing on what happens after the draft. The worst thing that happens is a .500 team comes to fruition and we're back to a pipedream QB FA signing or trying to draft one, which is going to cost a ton of picks moving up from the middle part of the first round.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

We're going to draft a guard

Considered by many as a once-in-a-generation offensive lineman and the best football player
in the draft at any position

sign an average QB

After breaking nearly all the passing records in college, was last year considered the #1 QB
in the league, according to DVOA, the #2 by QBR (I previously said #1, but apparently was
mistaken), had the highest passer rating under pressure (edging out Tom Brady), had a 98.3
passer rating overall, a 67% comp percentage, 3:1 TD/INT ratio, and quarterbacked his team
to the NFC Championship game. Yep, average.

and that's going to turn around a 5-11 team?

I'd bet on it . . .

Great - he's still a guard. Which means his impact on the field is less impactful than a borderline Pro Bowl QB.

Was a washout in the league multiple times, was a one hit wonder, and whose ratios are inflated because he was a game manager, and who tanked in the playoffs. Yeah, average. Don't fall for the outlier.

With Nelson and CK our ceiling is most contending for a WC spot. that's a pretty lousy ceiling. The floor is a top five pick again.

History tells us that you want the franchise QB, and if you want longterm success you have to have it. And finding them is difficult - kicking something difficult down the road is what we're probably going to do.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

Great - he's still a guard. Which means his impact on the field is less impactful than a borderline Pro Bowl QB.

Was a washout in the league multiple times, was a one hit wonder, and whose ratios are inflated because he was a game manager, and who tanked in the playoffs. Yeah, average. Don't fall for the outlier.

With Nelson and CK our ceiling is most contending for a WC spot. that's a pretty lousy ceiling. The floor is a top five pick again.

History tells us that you want the franchise QB, and if you want longterm success you have to have it. And finding them is difficult - kicking something difficult down the road is what we're probably going to do.

Outlier? LOL!! We're talking about a full season, not a single game. I watched the man play
most of the season. Please don't try to tell me it was an outlier. And please don't try to
fish me an inaccurate history. It isn't like I don't know how to research. All the way through
this debate on Keenum, I have presented facts, and you have responded with broad,
unfounded innuendo and suppositions. Keenum was one of the best QBs in the league last
year. That is undebatable.

And Nelson would make a dynamic impact on the offense. All the sudden, it will be one of
the best O-lines in the league, with Bolles, Leary, Paradis, Nelson, and Veldheer, and
McGovern and Turner behind them. With DT and Emmanuel at WR and another receiver
picked up in the draft, and C.J. or someone such as Royce Freeman toting the ball, the
offense will be powerful. And the defense is already good.

With Nelson at guard, the Broncos will be at least 11-5 next year, IMO. You heard it here
first . . .

Yes, a single season is in fact an outlier.

I hope your prediction is accurate.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

Yes, a single season is in fact an outlier.

I hope your prediction is accurate.

Me, too. I realize it is optimistic. But that's just me.

Originally Posted by topscribe

Me, too. I realize it is optimistic. But that's just me.

I'm a miserable pessimistic curmudgeonly misanthropic fellow and I won't apologize for that, nor will I ask for you to apologize for you being you.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I'm a miserable pessimistic curmudgeonly misanthropic fellow and I won't apologize for that, nor will I ask for you to apologize for you being you.

I'm glad I'm me. It must stink to be you . . .

Originally Posted by topscribe

I'm glad I'm me. It must stink to be you . . .

I smell wonderful!

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I smell wonderful!

Well, that expression is usually used with the word "suck," but I don't really like that word
in that context. But then, you probably would have just accused me of comparing you
with a Kirby vacuum cleaner, anyway . . .



I know . . . that's a pretty strange thing to say. I need a nap . . .

Originally Posted by topscribe

Somebody show this to John Elway. Maybe he can be persuaded to forget QB and take Bradley
Chubb or whatever other stud is available. Forget the QB carousel and strengthen the team.
We had a 1960s-type season last year. I don't want a 1960s-type decade . . .

I read the article and was reminded how good we thought Paxton would be. 50-something scout points and glowing comparisons. Jerry Jones despondent about missing out on him. And the guy simply is terrible - likely not even backup material. WTF! Definitely scary picking the QB scraps at 5 unless this is the second coming of 1983...

Am warming up to putting a new Doom/Ware piece beside Von and calling it a day.

If they pick up Chubb do they trade Ray?

Originally Posted by tomjonesrocks

I read the article and was reminded how good we thought Paxton would be. 50-something scout points and glowing comparisons. Jerry Jones despondent about missing out on him. And the guy simply is terrible - likely not even backup material. WTF! Definitely scary picking the QB scraps at 5 unless this is the second coming of 1983...

Am warming up to putting a new Doom/Ware piece beside Von and calling it a day.

Even in 1983, only have of the six QB selections in the first round were really successful
(Elway, Kelly, Marino). It's been a crap shoot virtually every single year.

On the other side of it, some have come out of the woodwork. Bart Starr (17th round), John
Unitas (17th), Kurt Warner and Tony Romo (UFAs), and Tom Brady in the 6th. Our own (now)
Case Keenum (UFA) finished last season with the best DVOA in the league.

It isn't over for Lynch, IMO. He has all of four (4) regular season games under his belt. I'm
not aware of many QBs, even great ones, who were good in their first four games. When he
was drafted, it was as a project. They said it involved 2 - 3 years of development. Injuries
have slowed that development. Truth is, we still don't know what we have.

For that matter, we don't know what we have in Chad Kelly. And if we throw in another
newly drafted QB, we will just have another about whom we know nothing on the field. It is
the most unpredictable position on the football team, regarding the success or failure of a
candidate, because so much more of the game is mental, and that can't be surely assessed
until he plays in the games.

So do we just keep throwing draft selections at QBs while holes still exist in the O-line, D-line,
LB, WR, and possibly TE? The QB is the pot at the end of the rainbow, and the rest of the
team is the job we left to go find it. Well, there's always the soup kitchen . . .

For everyone wanting to draft a guard or a RB at #5, I remember there was this team that had the best guard in the league and the best RB in the league at the same time (from 2007-2011)... they also had a top 10 defense. They either couldn’t make the playoffs or couldn’t win in the playoffs because they didn’t have a QB.

Can you name them?

(Hint: we signed their backup QB to be our starter)

Can we please stop screwing around and just draft a franchise QB?

Originally Posted by HORSEPOWER 56

For everyone wanting to draft a guard or a RB at #5, I remember there was this team that had the best guard in the league and the best RB in the league at the same time (from 2007-2011)... they also had a top 10 defense. They either couldn’t make the playoffs or couldn’t win in the playoffs because they didn’t have a QB.

Can you name them?

(Hint: we signed their backup QB to be our starter)



Can we please stop screwing around and just draft a franchise QB?

I gotta admit I'm not sure about the team question. Maybe Tennessee or Tampa???