Going back over Elway's draft history is painful. If he didn't dominate free agency for a few years he would have been fired a while ago.
Going back over Elway's draft history is painful. If he didn't dominate free agency for a few years he would have been fired a while ago.
2011
1 2 Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
2 45 Rahim Moore S UCLA
2 46 Orlando Franklin OL Miami (FL)
3 67 Nate Irving LB North Carolina State
4 108 Quinton Carter S Oklahoma
4 129 Julius Thomas TE Portland State
6 189 Mike Mohamed ILB California
7 204 Virgil Green TE Nevada
7 247 Jeremy Beal DE Oklahoma
2012
2 36 Derek Wolfe DT Cincinnati
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
3 67 Ronnie Hillman RB San Diego State
4 101 Omar Bolden CB Arizona State
4 108 Philip Blake C Baylor
5 137 Malik Jackson DE Tennessee
6 188 Danny Trevathan OLB Kentucky
2013
1 28 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina
2 58 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin
3 90 Kayvon Webster CB South Florida
5 146 Quanterus Smith DE Western Kentucky
5 161 Tavarres King WR Georgia
6 173 Vinston Painter OT Virginia Tech
7 234 Zac Dysert QB Miami (OH)
2014
1 31 Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
2 56 Cody Latimer WR Indiana
3 95 Michael Schofield OT Michigan
5 156 Lamin Barrow OLB LSU
6 207 Matt Paradis C Boise State
7 242 Corey Nelson OLB Oklahoma
2015
1 23 Shane Ray DE Missouri
2 59 Ty Sambrailo OT Colorado State
3 92 Jeff Heuerman TE Ohio State
4 133 Max Garcia C Florida
5 164 Lorenzo Doss CB Tulane
6 203 Darius Kilgo NT Maryland
7 250 Trevor Siemian QB Northwestern
7 251 Taurean Nixon DB Tulane
7 252 Josh Furman DB Oklahoma State
2016
1 26 Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
2 63 Adam Gotsis DT Georgia Tech
3 98 Justin Simmons S Boston College
4 136 Devontae Booker RB Utah
5 144 Connor McGovern G Missouri
6 176 Andy Janovich FB Nebraska
6 219 Will Parks S Arizona
7 228 Riley Dixon P Syracuse
2017
Round 1, No. 20: Utah OT Garett Bolles
Round 2, No. 51: FSU DL DeMarcus Walker
Round 3, No. 82: La. Tech WR Carlos Henderson
Round 3, No. 101: Lamar CB Brendan Langley
Round 5, No. 145: Michigan TE Jake Butt
Round 5, No. 172: Georgia WR Isaiah McKenzie
Round 6, No. 203: Coastal Carolina RB De’Angelo Henderson
Round 7, No. 253: Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly
Thanks Ziggy, and thanks to the spiders from Mars too.
You can grade the draft by adding the AV of all players drafted that year and dividing it by the number of players to determine the average Career AV of a player drafted from that draft class. Then if Elway's class is above or below that, it's a good or bad draft. So here we go.
Avg AV by year:
2011: NFL - 14.7, Elway - 20.7 (Miller, Moore*, Franklin, Julius Thomas) *Career AV was 20, but if you assign negative points for his gaffe, I understand
2012: NFL - 13.6, Elway - 19.1 (Wolfe, Hillman*, Malik J, Danny T) *Career AV was 17. You may call it a miss, I'm just pointing out players with Career AV above the average of all players drafted, many of whom are late round picks that do not make any impact in the NFL.
2013: NFL - 10.8, Elway - 6.6 (Sly Williams)
2014: NFL - 8.8, Elway - 9.7 (Roby, Schofield, Paradis)
2015: NFL - 7.0, Elway - 5.2 (Ray, Garcia, Siemian)
2016: NFL - 5.1, Elway - 4.6 (Gotsis, Simmons, Booker)
2017: NFL - 2.2, Elway - 1.0 (Bolles)
2011-2017: NFL - 62.2, Elway - 66.9
It would look like Elway is winning, but this measure is of Career AV, so the players selected earlier will have the greatest effect on the measure. The contribution from 2011 is 7x that from 2017. But each year should be weighed more equally. We can do this by figuring what % of average AV each year was--20.7 is 141% of 14.7, 1.0 is 45% of 2.2--if we realize the grades given for more recent years might change dramatically if any of these players emerge.
2011: 141%
2012: 140%
2013: 61%
2014: 110%
2015: 74%
2016: 90%
2017: 45%
Overall avg: 95%
This squares more with our perception of Elway's drafts--solid in '11 and '12, otherwise below average.
Originally Posted by Sting
Also, in the earlier drafts we had less depth on the team and we were drafting higher making it easier for picks to contribute. During the 13-15 seasons we had a lot of depth on the team and it was hard for draft picks to make the roster, not to mention even contribute (Shane Ray and Roby are good examples)
True. There are many other confounding factors besides draft order that I didn't mention (coaching, development, higher AV going to players that have other high AV players already on the roster, AV reflecting coaching acumen), but at least it's something concrete.
Originally Posted by Sting
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