This could help your enjoyment and understanding of the draft this weekend. I asked a team in the top half of the draft—a team that wants action on its pick when its 10-minute period begins Thursday night—how it views the depth of the top half of the draft. This is what my source said:
• His team has 15 players with first-round grades.
• His team has 30 to 35 players with second-round grades.
• His team has about 45 players with third-round grades.
• His team has “starter” or “potential starter” grade on “about 90” players.
And so, let’s envision teams in the top half of the first round with potentially hugely valuable picks: Cleveland (with the number four pick), Denver (five), Indianapolis (six). There’s a reason why in my mock draft I had Denver and Indianapolis trading down—because the value of quarterbacks is immense, and because the premium on second and third-round picks in this draft is similarly big. That’s why if I’m the Broncos or the Colts (or the Bucs or Bears or Niners, if Josh Rosen falls down the first round more than we think), I’m asking for two or three lower picks rather than two higher ones.
Example: If the Bills want Denver’s pick at five, and I’m Broncos GM John Elway, I don’t want the 12th and 22nd picks in return. I want 12, 53, 56 and maybe 96, and I’d flip a lower pick back to Buffalo. That would get the Bills what they want, a quarterback. That would get Denver the kind of depth a deep second and third round could provide—unless, of course, it’s Baker Mayfield sitting there for Elway at five, and he can’t resist the temptation.