Thread: The 2018 QB Conundrum

Originally Posted by VonDoom

It matters if it curtails your ability to do anything else to improve your team. Going into cap hell for Cousins doesn’t appeal to me. Call me crazy, but I like the idea of actually drafting and developing a QB long term, like most successful teams do

Please tell me when the last time was that the Broncos were in “cap hell”. People throw that term around every time a team pays premium money for premium players... people said that shit after we signed Manning. Then we went out and signed Ware, Ward, Talib, and Stewart and they said it again. Then we signed Von to a huge deal and it was said once again. Maybe I’m just thick as a brick, but I have yet to see this phenomenon. Can you name or refer to any time in the Broncos history that we had to blow up the entire roster because we were in “cap hell” and start over?

I can only think of one time since the start of the salary cap era where that happened. The 2000-2001 Ravens Super Bowl team. They truly did have to blow up their roster the next year. Other than that, the shit doesn’t actually happen. I’m not saying that the salary cap doesn’t exist, but every GM these days knows how to manipulate it to sign the players they really want. Cousins won’t bankrupt this team. He’ll only be the highest paid guy until the next QB (likely A Rod) signs his extension.

Originally Posted by HORSEPOWER 56

Please tell me when the last time was that the Broncos were in “cap hell”. People throw that term around every time a team pays premium money for premium players... people said that shit after we signed Manning. Then we went out and signed Ware, Ward, Talib, and Stewart and they said it again. Then we signed Von to a huge deal and it was said once again. Maybe I’m just thick as a brick, but I have yet to see this phenomenon. Can you name or refer to any time in the Broncos history that we had to blow up the entire roster because we were in “cap hell” and start over.

I can only think of one time since the start of the salary cap era where that happened. The 2000-2001 Ravens Super Bowl team. They truly did have to blow up their roster the next year. Other than that, the shit doesn’t actually happen. I’m not saying that the salary cap doesn’t exist, but every GM these days knows how to manipulate it to sign the players they really want. Cousins won’t bankrupt this team. He’ll only be the highest paid guy until the next QB (likely A Rod) signs his extension.

The salary cap is a really valid concern IMO. Cousins is going to get between $27-$30 mil annually. Von is making $22.5 next year. Combined they would represent roughly 27% of our cap next year. Find me another team who is devoting 27% of their cap to 2 players.

I'm not saying we definitely shouldn't - just that we better be damn sure that Cousins is the guy, otherwise we're going to be in a really tough spot... I think there is merit to paying arguably the two most important positions this kind of money - but they both basically have to be Pro Bowlers because you're going to have to cut back in other areas.

I think Horsepower is talking about the notion that it costs too much to give to a QB in general, or that no one player is worth it, etc. But, I can't speak for the man. Because he's a Horse. And I don't speak horse.

Originally Posted by HORSEPOWER 56

Please tell me when the last time was that the Broncos were in “cap hell”. People throw that term around every time a team pays premium money for premium players... people said that shit after we signed Manning. Then we went out and signed Ware, Ward, Talib, and Stewart and they said it again. Then we signed Von to a huge deal and it was said once again. Maybe I’m just thick as a brick, but I have yet to see this phenomenon. Can you name or refer to any time in the Broncos history that we had to blow up the entire roster because we were in “cap hell” and start over?

I can only think of one time since the start of the salary cap era where that happened. The 2000-2001 Ravens Super Bowl team. They truly did have to blow up their roster the next year. Other than that, the shit doesn’t actually happen. I’m not saying that the salary cap doesn’t exist, but every GM these days knows how to manipulate it to sign the players they really want. Cousins won’t bankrupt this team. He’ll only be the highest paid guy until the next QB (likely A Rod) signs his extension.

I can't speak for everyone here, but I certainly didn't say this when Manning was signed. I was behind that move 1000%. We also had cap space then - I can't find the exact figures, but 2012-2014, we were big spenders in FA. That bill is coming due now - we haven't signed many big ticket FA the last couple of years and yet we've been fairly tight against the cap every year. Buff makes a good point - we already have a guy making QB money on this team and it's not a QB. It's hard for me to see us devoting that much space to two guys and still being competitive elsewhere. Besides, Manning is a top 5 or 10 all time QB. Is that Cousins?

Take a look at this interesting piece on potentially signing Cousins - this was written before the Alex Smith trade and the Garoppolo deal, but the gist is the same. This doesn't have us shedding any real talent this year, but it makes the contract a very tight fit. And as I've said before, if cutting Talib and Sanders is the price for getting Cousins, I don't see how that truly benefits us.

Before I craft a contract for Cousins that would fit the Broncos, let’s take a look at their own cap and contract situation. I estimate that, after Matt Paradis and Shaq Barrett are given second round RFA tenders, and 2018 rookies are accounted for, the Broncos will have about $14.5 million in 2018 cap space. This gets lower, of course, if they do things like give Bennie Fowler an RFA tender, extend Cody Latimer, Todd Davis or Corey Nelson, or make other free agent acquisitions.

In the Broncos’ case, 2019 is also an important year to take into account. My estimate there, after both 2018 and 2019 rookies are accounted for, and either a fifth year tender on Shane Ray or an extension for Barrett is secured, will be $24.5 million left in 2019 cap space. Furthermore, the grand majority of that could be eaten up by extending Matt Paradis and Bradley Roby. Roughly estimate about $8.5 million APY for Paradis and $13.5 million APY for Roby, and you can see there’s not much left over.

https://in-thinair.com/2018/01/12/ho...-kirk-cousins/

But my point really was that we should stop looking for the quick FA fix. Manning turned this team into a contender overnight, and I don't see Cousins (or really anyone else) having that effect. Invest a rare early pick in a QB and develop him - hopefully he becomes a franchise guy and you don't have to worry about QB for ten years or more. Then you can try to take advantage of one of the only market inefficiencies left in the NFL - a good QB on a cheap deal, allowing you to fill in holes elsewhere and compete for the duration of that rookie contract.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I think Horsepower is talking about the notion that it costs too much to give to a QB in general, or that no one player is worth it, etc. But, I can't speak for the man. Because he's a Horse. And I don't speak horse.

Elway has done a great job managing the cap, I think that's his point... These two mega deals would put us in uncharted territory - that's my point. It could still work out, but it's risky.

Originally Posted by Buff

Elway has done a great job managing the cap, I think that's his point... These two mega deals would put us in uncharted territory - that's my point. It could still work out, but it's risky.

You're not a horse either!

The points are solid.

Originally Posted by Buff

Elway has done a great job managing the cap, I think that's his point... These two mega deals would put us in uncharted territory - that's my point. It could still work out, but it's risky.

They'd make it work.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

They'd make it work.

Right - that's HP56's point -- and that may be true - but conventional salary cap wisdom tells us it's a bad move.

My counterpoint would be that a pass rushing DE/OLB and QB are arguably the two most important positions, so if you're going to make a big investment in your salary cap, those are the two places to spend... A lot of it boils down to how confident we are that Cousins can be a pro bowl QB for years to come. If he ends up being only slightly above average - a Top 12-15 QB, then it will have been a bad move.

Originally Posted by Buff

Right - that's HP56's point -- and that may be true - but conventional salary cap wisdom tells us it's a bad move.

My counterpoint would be that a pass rushing DE/OLB and QB are arguably the two most important positions, so if you're going to make a big investment in your salary cap, those are the two places to spend... A lot of it boils down to how confident we are that Cousins can be a pro bowl QB for years to come. If he ends up being only slightly above average - a Top 12-15 QB, then it will have been a bad move.

I just stopped trying to worry about the cap. I’ve been the one talking myself blue in the face over salary cap tool and then it always seems to work.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

I just stopped trying to worry about the cap. I’ve been the one talking myself blue in the face over salary cap tool and then it always seems to work.

Yeah but I think you're doing it at precisely the wrong moment. I think that's what I'm trying to convey. You're both saying that it has historically always worked out (and it has under Elway, but we had a ton of dead money under Shanny)... This is different though. These deals are in another echelon. It could still work - but you've got to think some salary cap conventional wisdom still applies and everything we've learned across all the sports is that wrapping up your cap in a couple of players is often a recipe for failure.

Originally Posted by Buff

Yeah but I think you're doing it at precisely the wrong moment. I think that's what I'm trying to convey. You're both saying that it has historically always worked out (and it has under Elway, but we had a ton of dead money under Shanny)... This is different though. These deals are in another echelon. It could still work - but you've got to think some salary cap conventional wisdom still applies and everything we've learned across all the sports is that wrapping up your cap in a couple of players is often a recipe for failure.

They'd take up roughly $50 million of a $190 million cap? I just think it's possible to put together the rest of the team, solidly, with $140 million. Yes, someone might have to restructure, and yes, there might be a cap casualty, but I think they could field a competitive team while paying those two players that amount. I'd have to do some research that I don't have time for now, but I'm sure somewhere someone has taken up 26 percent of a team's cap, because the real large cap escalations of $10 million a year only kicked in under the new CBA a few years ago. The cap was relatively stagnant for some time, if I recall.

Originally Posted by chazoe60

Alfred Williams. Radio host ex-Bronco/Bengal with obvious brain damage who constantly says dumb shit.

Two time SB champion. Some of the things he says are dumb, but most are certainly not.

His take on signing Trevor Siemian to a long term contract last year after the Raiders game was certainly idiotic as events proved, and his current take on some of the QBs available on the FA market and draft seem to be completely off to me, but his insights into the game are often unmatched. He really explains a lot of inside football from the players' perspective that you don't hear elsewhere.

Dude was a monster LB for two superbowl champions, and really (as many former Broncos like Steve Atwater, and just today Ray Crockett, attest) the only reason he isn't in the Hall of Fame now is that he was buried in Cincinnati for a major part of his career.

Alfred a HOF candidate?

Seriously?

No, but seriously?

Broncos need more cap space if they want to make free-agency splash http://es.pn/2o4msLd
via @ESPN App http://es.pn/app

Dont worry though. Cousins is sooooo gooood that he can overcome anything.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Broncos need more cap space if they want to make free-agency splash http://es.pn/2o4msLd
via @ESPN App http://es.pn/app

Dont worry though. Cousins is sooooo gooood that he can overcome anything.

Why so salty? Salt isn't good for you, bad for the heart.