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Thread: The 2018 QB Conundrum

  1. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    ]Right now the Broncos have 3 QB's under contract for the 2018 season. Brock is an UFA. That leaves Lynch, Siemian, and Kelly.

    Lynch is uncuttable. He carries a 4.46 million dollar cap hit if he's cut this year. Elway has never strapped this team with a lot of dead cap money. I doubt he even has the ability to, considering the team's finances are run out of a trust fund. Lynch also has no trade value. Siemian carries just a 13k salary cap hit if he's cut. That's certainly an option. Kelly carries a 48k cap hit if he's cut. That's an option as well.
    There is no reason to cut Lynch at this point, unless Chad Kelly impresses them enough that they decide to go with him as their developmental #3 scout team QB. No reason to incur a cap hit in other words. That cap hit probably means that Chad Kelly is going elsewhere this coming season, because they are not keeping 4 QBs on the 53 man roster. Rookie draft pick + veteran FA signing = 2. There's room for one more: Lynch or Kelly.

    We all know who the fans will want. Who the Broncos will want is another question. It's decision time for Paxton, and despite the cap hit, I see them cutting him in the off-season if he gets beat out by Kelly in the pre-season.

    "I like Jake Butts and I can not lie You other brothers can't deny"

  2. #17

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    As for Kirk Cousins, he just announced he believes that the Redskins "are now all in on re-signing" him. What that means: the Redskins will not let Cousins go without a fight. They will attempt to negotiate a reasonable contract, possibly in the $26-27m range. The $ range is pure speculation on my part, but they would want their initial offer to be considered reasonable by the Cousins camp.

    Obviously, he will get a lot more than that, but it starts the ball rolling. They could come in lower than that, but this would risk insulting him again, after they did that very thing to him last year - which led to their current impasse.

    Also, Cousins has indicated that he will take other offers (well, duh!) in order to test the market and see what other teams will offer. The Redskins can either use the transition tag, or else just enter into FA negotiations directly with Cousins' agent like everybody else. Since he's technically still under contract until the start of the FA period in March, they can make any offer to him they want, and get him locked up BEFORE the start of FA.

    If they fail at this (likely) then he solicits other offers. If they transition tag him they will have the right to match. If not they will try and match anyway in order to retain him.

    Alternatively, they could franchise him at $34.6m and then start serious negotiations on a contract to supplant the franchise tag amount: i.e. something similar to what he could get from another team as an UFA.

    Not certain what that would be, but obviously any team that wants to steal Cousins away from the Redskins is going to have a fight on their hands. That means a bidding war. And the only way the other team will win is if they have more CASH MONEY than the Redskins can afford to pay.

    It's exactly like two poker players trying to out-bid each other. In that situation the guy with the most chips always wins if he is willing to go all-in.

    In this exact scenario: John Elway v. Dan Snyder, mano-a-mano for all the marbles. Winner walks away with Kirk Cousins. Loser gets to eat dirt.

    Washington Redskins Under the Cap Room 2018:

    9th- Washington Redskins active roster: $131,956,703 Dead Cap $: $462,606 Adjustments from previous year: $1,834,575 Total cap room: $45,415,266

    16th- Denver Broncos active roster: $162,806,487 Dead Cap $: $365,909 Adjustments from previous year: $11,421,189 Total Cap Room: $24,248,793*

    *I am ignoring their "top 51 players" category, since that is meaningless. What matters is total players under contract.

    "I like Jake Butts and I can not lie You other brothers can't deny"

  3. #18
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    How my feeble mind sees things:

    -Draftable QBs aren't that great. Rosen maybe, Falk maybe, but the others don't look like they are worth a high first round pick. But we will certainly be drafting a QB, hopefully one that has a brain and can throw a football.
    -I do not want to get Eli or Brees. Let's move on from these old ass QBs who will only last 2 or 3 years. We have gotten all the water we can from that well.
    -It looks like Cousins is gonna get a big contract, and I don't think he's worth fighting for to be paid as much as it looks like he will be paid.
    -I would be ok with Alex Smith as a placeholder while we figure out the long term situation, ie our draft pick.
    -Of the young guys, Bridgewater is the most interesting to me. I would love to get him to continue his development.
    -If we are going to write off 2018-19 season already, then I think we should get Cutler. That would be hilarious to see play out.

    Ideally I would like to go into next season with Bridgewater, Kelly, and Falk. I wouldn't mind getting Cousins as long as we aren't sacrificing other parts of the team for him. It wouldn't be the end of the world if we kept Oz as our veteran backup instead of picking up one of the veteran options, but he's shown his ceiling and we better have somebody on the roster who we think is gonna be the future.

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  5. #19
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    Compounding the problem is that fixing the O-line is as big, or bigger problem than QB. If they don't fix that line, no rookie QB is going to be successful, and veteran QBs are going to struggle to get the team to the playoffs.

    While I'm not convinced on Cousins, it's the reason that signing Cousins and drafting a G or T early in the first is probably the best option for the team.

    They need major upgrades at LG and RT if they want to be competitive.

  6. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tned View Post
    Compounding the problem is that fixing the O-line is as big, or bigger problem than QB. If they don't fix that line, no rookie QB is going to be successful, and veteran QBs are going to struggle to get the team to the playoffs.

    While I'm not convinced on Cousins, it's the reason that signing Cousins and drafting a G or T early in the first is probably the best option for the team.

    They need major upgrades at LG and RT if they want to be competitive.
    McGovern is a capable starter at RG which means we could move Leary back to his natural position LG. IMO, we are one T away from having a quality starting line. I could be wrong, but I believe quarterback is a much bigger problem.
    Last edited by Al Wilson 4 Mayor; 01-07-2018 at 12:06 AM.

  7. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    McGovern is a capable starter at RT which means we could move Leary back to his natural position LG. IMO, we are one T away from having a quality starting line. I could be wrong, but I believe quarterback is a much bigger problem.
    In the sense it's harder to find a good QB, yes. In terms of no rookie QB, and few vets are going to succeed behind the last three years lines, maybe not.

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    Ironically, Jay Cutler is probably the best 1 year "stopgap" option available. I don't see the defense or the locker room rallying around a Josh McCown as a stop gap, but Cutler just might be able to keep a rookie on the bench for a month or two while they get up to snuff. I do not want Alex Smith.

    If Kirk does come here, it's because he feels like Washington is dysfunctional and Elway manages to convince him he can win here. It would be a major coup, and enable us to trade back in one of the deeper O-Line and RB drafts.

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  10. #23

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    Buoyed by NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport's Saturday report that the Chiefs are open to trading Smith during the offseason, Kansas City should be expected to attempt to deal the quarterback to a team flush with space -- Cleveland, for example, though the Browns aren't alone -- and would likely only release Smith if the Chiefs can't find a suitor. Considering these numbers, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach might not have a ton of leverage -- even with a hotter-than-usual quarterback market forming -- but it seems likely Smith won't be back in 2018.
    So, the Chiefs are going to try and bluff everybody into making an offer for Alex Smith, but since he's due $20m next season, they have Pat Mahomes, they just lost in round 1 again under Smith, they are going to release him if nobody offers them a viable trade.

    And they would have to trade him to a team that has the cap room to absorb his contract. He's actually getting $17.7m not counting the pro-rated portion of his 5 year deal. So, he won't accept a deal for less than around $18m and will want the total $20m.

    I don't know if teams will agree to pay Smith that, which would mean that he'll be released rather than traded. So, if the Broncos wanted him they could probably wait and see if they cut Smith and then try and sign him.

    The playoff loss wasn't on Alex Smith. He played generally well and didn't turn the ball over.

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  12. #24
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    I'm all in on a rookie QB @ 5 unless they can get Brees (which seems almost impossible). hopefully we will not be drafting at this spot again anytime soon, so time to rebuild for real.
    Cousins is too expensive and no one else is really a viable FA. there are a few options in this years draft that will pan out Elway just needs to pick the right one this time and not the other guy. His whiffing on Oz hurt most and cost the most time to get back to competitive football.

  13. #25

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    Not saying WE should get Smith but he is a productive QB with little injury history. He deserves 20m from somebody.

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  15. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick View Post
    Not saying WE should get Smith but he is a productive QB with little injury history. He deserves 20m from somebody.
    What are you his agent?

    Yes, he will get somewhere around $20m from somebody. Probably not the Broncos since the Chefs won't trade him in the division. That wouldn't go down well in KC.

    Step 1: Trade him to the Broncos. Step 2: The Broncos then win the division, with Smith beating them in the process. Step 3: Chefs fans riot and burn things down.

    You can see why they won't be eager to do this.

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  16. #27
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    I don't get the love for Cousins. I'd say he's a starter at best who's already hit his ceiling. He also has a buttload of INTs and not a single playoff win to his resume. Add to that they would have to pay him more than Manning made when in reality he isn't a fraction of the QB manning was. I look for Smith to be cut from the Chiefs and I think he's be a perfect QB at this stage for the Broncos. It would allow them to draft a true BPA impact player at the 5 spot and address some of the many holes this team clearly has.

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    Quote Originally Posted by broncofaninfla View Post
    I don't get the love for Cousins. I'd say he's a starter at best who's already hit his ceiling. He also has a buttload of INTs and not a single playoff win to his resume. Add to that they would have to pay him more than Manning made when in reality he isn't a fraction of the QB manning was. I look for Smith to be cut from the Chiefs and I think he's be a perfect QB at this stage for the Broncos. It would allow them to draft a true BPA impact player at the 5 spot and address some of the many holes this team clearly has.
    Amen. Too much money committed to Von, Cousins is way too expensive. Draft a QB in the first Rd.
    "I may not be a mathematician, but I can count to a million." - Shannon Sharpe

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    If Smith is so good, why is he getting bounced from his second team in favor of an unproven understudy QB? Because that QB, and his backup in SF, provided more playmaking ability. Smith is an over-conservative loser. For the last several years heís been seen as that stopgap to get you from one real QB to the next. Iíve seen too many games where Smith has struggled to score points or to come from behind.

    If weíre gonna sign a vet, he needs to be the guy who can lead us to a Super Bowl and be here long term (>5 years). If weíre not gonna do that, draft a QB and start him from day 1 so he can grow to be that guy. Quit this band-aid QB bullshit. Also, thereís zero guarantee Smith will be much cheaper than Cousins. Heís already making $17m next year, but if heís traded it will probably a trade and sign deal (a deal with his new team is already worked out at the time of the trade) and heíll command over $20M.

    Last but not least, the Chefs gave up 2 2nds for him. Heíll command at least a second rounder if not a first this time in a trade too. KC wants to trade him to play Mahomes and get picks doing it, but they donít have to. I doubt they'll cut him. They can afford to wait until after the draft and trade him to one of the teams that didnít grab a QB. Heíll either be traded before or after the draft. I donít see a way he gets cut.

  19. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick View Post
    Cousins.

    If not Cousins then Bridgewater.

    If Option C...

    Bradford and a rookie.
    I'm agreeing more and more with this the more I look at it.

    Option B would potentially be Case Keenum if the Vikings dump him instead of Teddy Bridgewater.

    Option C would be hope that Alex Smith becomes a FA. That could be if nobody is willing to take Alex Smith's $20m contract off the Chef's hands. But, they are not trading him within the division so he's unlikely to wind up here.

    Option D would probably be Bradford or Josh McCown and possibly move up in the draft and try and get one of the top 2 QBs, perhaps Sam Darnold if the Browns don't draft him. If they can't move up or don't want to pay the price, then probably Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson.

    Personally, I haven't seen anything good about those three, but I'm not a big college football fan so I don't have much opinion on them.

    If the Broncos sign Cousins, then they probably don't bother with drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds, but if it's Bridgewater or Keenum and certainly if it's Alex Smith or Josh McCown or Sam Bradford, then they are drafting a QB early. Perhaps not at #5, but in the first round.,
    Last edited by Cugel; 01-09-2018 at 11:24 AM.

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