Thread: The Safest Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft

I haven't heard much about Derwin James, Roquan, or the SMU WR Sutton (6'4" 218 4.54)...anyone have an opinion on these guys at 5? CBS has them at top 5 or so. Above Barkley if you can believe that.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I haven't heard much about Derwin James, Roquan, or the SMU WR Sutton (6'4" 218 4.54)...anyone have an opinion on these guys at 5? CBS has them at top 5 or so. Above Barkley if you can believe that.

no, no, and no. . . nelson, chubb, or a QB-- or G T F O. . . i would be down with james at #12 if we traded with buffalo. . .

Originally Posted by dogfish

no, no, and no. . . nelson, chubb, or a QB-- or G T F O. . . i would be down with james at #12 if we traded with buffalo. . .

I'm not sure about Chubb, but I'll take your word for it. I'm still all in on Nelson, but cool with Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold. These other guys look like potential pro-bowlers, but man, Nelson seems like the ideal pick with a coaching staff in potential transition and a need to upgrade offensive line play. Best guard prospect ever, if you believe some of these scouting reports.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

I'm not sure about Chubb, but I'll take your word for it. I'm still all in on Nelson, but cool with Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold. These other guys look like potential pro-bowlers, but man, Nelson seems like the ideal pick with a coaching staff in potential transition and a need to upgrade offensive line play. Best guard prospect ever, if you believe some of these scouting reports.

i like chubb, but not 100% sold either. . . nelson is my guy if we pick at five. . . though i wouldn't argue with a QB. . .


honestly, i just wanna watch the big guy maul people. . . i love nasty OLs, and as somebody else said earlier, this dude makes bolles look like a cub scout. . .

Nelllssooonnnnn

Originally Posted by dogfish

i like chubb, but not 100% sold either. . . nelson is my guy if we pick at five. . . though i wouldn't argue with a QB. . .


honestly, i just wanna watch the big guy maul people. . . i love nasty OLs, and as somebody else said earlier, this dude makes bolles look like a cub scout. . .

Nelson is everything that’s right about football.

This went deeper into a rabbit hole than I expected, but I'll share if anyone is interested.

The Broncos are in a position to pick up a value QB after the first round. Sure, 18 of the 32 starters in the league (counted Cutler/Tannehill as 1) are top 15 draft selections, but are they really elite? You decide:

Name, w/l record

Matt Ryan 95-63
Cam Newton 62-45
Mitchell Trubisky n/a
Matthew Stafford 60-65
Blame Bortles 21-40
Patrick Mahomes n/a
Philip Rivers 106-86
Jay Cutler 74-79
Eli Manning 111-103
Jameis Winston 18-27
Marcus Mariota 20-22
Deshaun Watson n/a
Jared Goff 11-11
Carson Wentz 18-11
Andrew Luck (?) 43-27
Sam Bradford 34-45
Ryan Tannehill 37-40
Alex Smith 88-62
Roethlisberger 135-63

Since Eli came into the league in 2004, there have been 8 others drafted by pick 15 (RG3, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker, JaMarcus, V Young, Leinart, and Sanchez) who are clearly not elite.

So the equation is pretty simple. Pick the number of QBs from that list you would like to be your face of the franchise, and divide that number by 27. That's your recent odds of finding your guy in the first 15 picks. For me, it's 9/27, or 33%.

How many QB's drafted from 16 through udfa would you want as FOTF?

In that same period, there have been 138 QBs drafted (not counting udfa). Only a handful have panned out:

Rodgers*
Wilson
Carr
Dalton
Schaub
Anderson
Bridgewater*
Cassel
Cousins
Foles
Prescott
Taylor
Flacco*
Fitzpatrick
Orton
Campbell*
Freeman
Henne
Kaepernick
Tavaris
Weeden*
Losman
Geno Smith
Brock Oz
Trevor Siemian
Garoppolo

*1st round

Lot of scrubs in that list, those are the best of those 135. 5/135 have made it to two pro bowls. A few look promising, like Cousins and Prescott. Flacco has never made a pro bowl, but has started for 10 years. If you are generous, that's a 10% FOTF hit rate.

Just for comparison, let's look at guards.

4 selected pick 1-15
50% 2+ year pro bowlers

176 selected pick 16+
7% 2+ year pro bowlers (8/12 of those were 1st round picks)

percentage of 1st round picks that were not pro bowlers ever: 45%
percentage that were not 6+ AV starters: a couple. Take a look.

Having a franchise QB is more important than having a pro-bowl guard. If it's a 33% chance of getting a franchise QB (70% chance of essentially wasting your pick and spinning your wheels since he's not the guy), or 50% chance of getting a pro-bowl guard/40% chance of getting a quality starter...which one is correct? I'm not really sure, in a generic draft year, so I'm ok with the QB pick this year if they did their research (they obviously didn't do research with Brock and Paxton).

But this year it seems like those probabilities are not appropriate. No one really knows which of these QBs is most likely to become a franchise guy. But nearly everyone concedes Nelson has the look of a guy that will make an immediate impact and likely become a pro bowl fixture. I have no problem if the Broncos take a QB, but I have a preference for the higher probability play of making whichever QB plays for the Broncos that much better by drafting Nelson. Pick up a value QB when you can.

There’s actually two QB’s in this draft that aren’t a fish outta water in the Broncos WCO, or a pro system period, that’s approximately 2 more than in your typical draft. This IS the year to do it.

My heart tells me Nelson, regardless of draft slot, but my brain tells me Rosen/Allen. You could even make an argument for Mayfield, I have a feeling he’s the Prescott outlier, if not physically gifted. Darnold too, he’s a playmaker that needs time to develop, he’s 20-years-old.

I've been a proponent of Nelson since December, but I wouldn't argue with Fitzpatrick, either (assuming a non QB selection). The more I watch him, the more I see a Swiss Army knife. He can be a shut down corner...or a slot corner...or a dime corner...he plays both safety positions flawlessly...he blitzes well out of the slot...he's not afraid to mix it up in the run game...and he does this weird thing we haven't seen in a while...he covers TE's. He can basically used at all 6 secondary positions as well as a hybrid LB. And plays all of them very well.

Originally Posted by CoachChaz

I've been a proponent of Nelson since December, but I wouldn't argue with Fitzpatrick, either (assuming a non QB selection). The more I watch him, the more I see a Swiss Army knife. He can be a shut down corner...or a slot corner...or a dime corner...he plays both safety positions flawlessly...he blitzes well out of the slot...he's not afraid to mix it up in the run game...and he does this weird thing we haven't seen in a while...he covers TE's. He can basically used at all 6 secondary positions as well as a hybrid LB. And plays all of them very well.

Ramsey?

Originally Posted by CoachChaz

I've been a proponent of Nelson since December, but I wouldn't argue with Fitzpatrick, either (assuming a non QB selection). The more I watch him, the more I see a Swiss Army knife. He can be a shut down corner...or a slot corner...or a dime corner...he plays both safety positions flawlessly...he blitzes well out of the slot...he's not afraid to mix it up in the run game...and he does this weird thing we haven't seen in a while...he covers TE's. He can basically used at all 6 secondary positions as well as a hybrid LB. And plays all of them very well.

Fitzpatrick is a beast. The way the draft is falling it's playing out a lot like the first few picks of the 99 draft.



Bunch of QBs, extremely highly-touted RB... swap a lineman in there and that's about where this draft is.

And then at the end of that you've got a CB who could lock it down for a decade. If you're rebuilding the No Fly Zone, he's your guy. Like you said, he can do basically anything. He mixes versatility with top-shelf skill. If you wanted another shot at Champ Bailey, and a replacement for Talib, this is your shot. Problem is we saw what happened with Champ Bailey going to waste.

I won't be unhappy if Denver manages to land Fitzpatrick, depending on the circumstance. How you gonna be upset about landing an All-Pro skillset who would be tutored by the swiss-army-knife-in-chief of the No Fly Zone, Chris Harris?

But it would leave other gaping holes. That's the problem with screwing up the draft multiple years in a row and blowing top picks on worthless QBs: it means you have multiple holes to fill.

To reiterate: Denver needs to get this right.

To be fair, Elway lost a few players from those drafts that were homeruns they couldn’t afford to keep. At least early on.

Originally Posted by G_Money

Fitzpatrick is a beast. The way the draft is falling it's playing out a lot like the first few picks of the 99 draft.



Bunch of QBs, extremely highly-touted RB... swap a lineman in there and that's about where this draft is.

And then at the end of that you've got a CB who could lock it down for a decade. If you're rebuilding the No Fly Zone, he's your guy. Like you said, he can do basically anything. He mixes versatility with top-shelf skill. If you wanted another shot at Champ Bailey, and a replacement for Talib, this is your shot. Problem is we saw what happened with Champ Bailey going to waste.

I won't be unhappy if Denver manages to land Fitzpatrick, depending on the circumstance. How you gonna be upset about landing an All-Pro skillset who would be tutored by the swiss-army-knife-in-chief of the No Fly Zone, Chris Harris?

But it would leave other gaping holes. That's the problem with screwing up the draft multiple years in a row and blowing top picks on worthless QBs: it means you have multiple holes to fill.

Ugh, the Broncos also had a ton of picks in the ‘99 Draft and ended up with Al Wilson to show for it, that was the beginning of the end of Shanatan imo.

Let’s hope history is not repeating.

#TravisMcGriff
#NeverForget

Ugh.