Thread: Some Are Blaming the Broncos' "Decline in Talent" on Elway's Drafting. But Is This True?

Originally Posted by Cugel

I'd agree, except that we are now witnessing Brady about to win another damn SB. So, don't tell us that it doesn't take an elite QB when the preceding SBs will have been won by Brady, Brady, Manning, Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco (exception), Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisbeger (2).

Even Flacco had a career year the year they won. It's just damn hard to win SBs without an elite QB. Yes, Denver won with defense in 2015, but they still had Manning for his leadership. Besides that kind of thing normally only happens once every 10 years - and never to the same team twice.

Brady is not an argument for the necessity of having an elite QB to win the SB. He is simply what
many consider as the greatest QB to play the game. Yes, he was necessary for the Patriots since
they don't have the best team without him. But, again, that's Brady.

IMO, Wilson, Flacco, and even Roethlisberger are very good QBs who are not on the elite level.
Of the present QBs, that club is limited to Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. And Brees has a defense,
and it was questionable whether Green Bay was a playoff team, even with a healthy Rodgers.
And where are Wilson and Flacco now, during this playoff time? And now Roethlisberger will watch
the rest of the postseason from his couch, having lost to Blake Bortles & Co. (and their defense).

The fact is, if Denver drafts a QB with their 1st, they will be rolling the dice. The examples of
first-round busts I provided are just two of many. Elway knew the prescription for a Super Bowl
in 2015 because all he had for QBs were Osweiler and an aged, broken down Manning. The
defense took over and rolled through the playoffs and the SB. Building such a team is more likely
than drafting an elite QB, IMO.

The fact is, if Denver drafts a QB with their 1st, they will be rolling the dice. The examples of
first-round busts I provided are just two of many. Elway knew the prescription for a Super Bowl
in 2015 because all he had for QBs were Osweiler and an aged, broken down Manning. The
defense took over and rolled through the playoffs and the SB. Building such a team is more likely
than drafting an elite QB, IMO.

Not in anyone else's opinion though.

That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.

Originally Posted by Cugel

That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

I guess I don't look at building a defense as if it were the lottery. It's doing something like Elway did, and he's still there.

It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.

Who said anything about an "average stiff"? There are good QBs out there, and they are much, much easier to find than
the "next great QB," the latter which belongs to a minute percentage and, as I mentioned, is a matter of luck to find.
Now, you might compare that to the lottery.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.

I believe the HOF to be a marginal measuring stick for greatness. Players are in there who probably never should have
been nominated, and others rebuffed who should have been in there a long time ago.

Ben is a very good QB. There is no doubt of that. I just don't place him on a plateau with Brady, Elway, or Manning in
his prime. Nonetheless, I would be thrilled to have him in the orange & blue. The Broncos would instantly be Super
Bowl contenders. So I'm not denigrating Ben at all. I'm just trying to be realistic in my assessments.

In all, the Broncos don't need an HOF QB to contend. They just need a good one who can consistently get the ball into
the hands of his own teammates. They have the core to take care of the rest.


EDIT: The Minnesota Vikings, led by average stiff QB Case Keenum, just defeated the New Orleans Saints, led by
future HOFer Drew Brees. So the Vikings' next game will be against the Philadelphia Eagles, led by none other than
average stiff Nick Foles, who beat the Atlanta Falcons, led by Matt Ryan. I acquiesce that the Super Bowl will likely
be won by Tom Brady and his Patriots, but look who all were eliminated already.

Originally Posted by Cugel

Not in anyone else's opinion though.

That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.

Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

Originally Posted by Tned

Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

While it's hard to draft a HOF QB for sure, Elway hasn't even drafted an AVERAGE one yet. Just two flat out scrubs. If he can just draft a middle of the road QB that's a huge step in the right direction. Obviously it's asking too much to expect a HOFer in this draft, but he really can't whiff again.

Brady is not an argument for the necessity of having an elite QB to win the SB. He is simply what
many consider as the greatest QB to play the game. Yes, he was necessary for the Patriots since
they don't have the best team without him. But, again, that's Brady.

I think that a lot of QB's could have led the Pats to five SB wins the last 16 years. Brady is the most overrated player of all-time. My advice to anyone would be to watch the NE games, not listen to what the talking heads on TV say. They are paid to pimp Brady.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

I don't slam his drafting skills on Day 2 because he hasn't found an elite QB. I slam his Day 2 skills because he is showing that he is ignorant about value by drafting guys that are reaches. And, I agree with you about the success rate in drafting QB's. Over the years, there haven't been as many first-round success stories as some may think:

http://logicaloptimizer.blogspot.com...fl-talent.html

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

While it's hard to draft a HOF QB for sure, Elway hasn't even drafted an AVERAGE one yet. Just two flat out scrubs. If he can just draft a middle of the road QB that's a huge step in the right direction. Obviously it's asking too much to expect a HOFer in this draft, but he really can't whiff again.

As it goes with drafting QBs outside the top 3 spots in the draft.

Originally Posted by Tned

As it goes with drafting QBs outside the top 3 spots in the draft.

Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is like drafting a lineman in the 4th or 5th. He might make it,
and he might not. That's why Osweiler, for instance, wasn't picked in the first round. It's like
trying to avoid snake eyes or box cars while trying to match the five you just rolled.

Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

I think Elway has gotten a bad rap on drafting QBs. The truth is, we still don't know how he
did completely. But "whiffing" on QBs is a league-wide thing. Somebody tell me which of
these quarterbacks Elway drafted:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
Joey Harrington
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
David Carr
Jake Locker
Rick Mirer
Akili Smith
Justin Blackmon
Tim Couch

I'll wait . . .

Originally Posted by Tned

Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

This is all correct. I don't blame Elway for drafting Osweiler or Lynch. The fact those guys didn't work out is not his fault. He deserves some criticism for not locking up Osweiler before he hit FA. That was his plan and he bungled it. Fortunately, it turned out to be a good thing as Osweiler tanked. But, that was luck. IF Osweiler had turned into a franchise QB Elway would be justly criticized.

Fans don't normally realize that the draft is a QB lottery with the odds permanently against teams. About 1/2 those QBs drafted in the first round are busts. These percentages just get a lot worse in the 2nd while 3rd or later round QBs are so seldom long term starters that you can count the exceptions on the fingers of both hands.

But, you need a Franchise QB if you don't have one, and it's tough to find one via FA. You either have to be very lucky or overpay badly or both. And even then it doesn't always work out.

Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

Will the jury still be out on Lynch if the Broncos get rid of him? There's a good chance that happens this off-season. Vance Joseph certainly doesn't want to rely on him in what will be a make or break year for himself. I get the feeling that the team has moved on from Paxton.

Elway could insist on keeping him around on the roster, but for what? Insurance in case their rookie draft pick sucks? Would Paxton make an adequate replacement in that case? Not by anything we've seen so far. He only started a few games because he sucked so badly they coudn't get him on the field after 2 seasons. His performance shows no signs of his ever becoming a franchise QB.

BTW Top: IF Jacksonville wins the SB, then we might conclude that it's possible to win with an average QB and great defense more often than once every ten years on average, but note that it didn't happen between 1985 and 2000. So, sometimes a longer period than 10 years happens between such examples. Or shorter.

Unless some team wins TWICE using that method it's safe to conclude it will never happen.

Originally Posted by Cugel

Will the jury still be out on Lynch if the Broncos get rid of him? There's a good chance that happens this off-season. Vance Joseph certainly doesn't want to rely on him in what will be a make or break year for himself. I get the feeling that the team has moved on from Paxton.

Elway could insist on keeping him around on the roster, but for what? Insurance in case their rookie draft pick sucks? Would Paxton make an adequate replacement in that case? Not by anything we've seen so far. He only started a few games because he sucked so badly they coudn't get him on the field after 2 seasons. His performance shows no signs of his ever becoming a franchise QB.

BTW Top: IF Jacksonville wins the SB, then we might conclude that it's possible to win with an average QB and great defense more often than once every ten years on average, but note that it didn't happen between 1985 and 2000. So, sometimes a longer period than 10 years happens between such examples. Or shorter.

Unless some team wins TWICE using that method it's safe to conclude it will never happen.

Sure, the jury's still out if the Broncos dump him. He could go on and be a success with another team,
or he could prove there that he is a bust. Both VJ and Elway have admitted that they still don't know
what they have in Lynch because he hasn't had the time on the field that he needs. They both realize
that 5½ games is not enough of a sample. I hate to keep bringing it up, but it's a fact: Elway himself
blew nearly his first entire year before becoming one of the greatest ever to play.

The team has some tough decisions to make at quarterback. They may feel they have to release
Lynch. I'll support them on that. They may retain him. I'll support them on that. I'm just glad I'm not
the one making those decisions . . .

Originally Posted by topscribe

Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is like drafting a lineman in the 4th or 5th. He might make it,
and he might not. That's why Osweiler, for instance, wasn't picked in the first round. It's like
trying to avoid snake eyes or box cars while trying to match the five you just rolled.

Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

I think Elway has gotten a bad rap on drafting QBs. The truth is, we still don't know how he
did completely. But "whiffing" on QBs is a league-wide thing. Somebody tell me which of
these quarterbacks Elway drafted:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
Joey Harrington
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
David Carr
Jake Locker
Rick Mirer
Akili Smith
Justin Blackmon
Tim Couch

I'll wait . . .

You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel.

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel.

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.

I posted it once, it's not pretty.

MO, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you throw out some number which was like single digit success on drafting QBs. Can't remember if that was first round or first/second, but basically a very low percentage of QBs picked (not talking 7th rounders here) ever amount to top tier starting QBs or even average starting QBs for that matter.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel.

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.

Those are all first rounders . . .

Originally Posted by topscribe

Those are all first rounders . . .

The problem is that there are usually 1 or 2 QBs in any draft who are franchise QBs and the rest are fish bait. Sometimes it's impossible to tell in advance who that QB will be (ex. Russell Wilson, 3rd round, DAK Prescott, 4th round).