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Thread: Cousins is a pro, but...

  1. #166

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    this is pretty much where i've been. . . thinking that cousins isn't a top ten type of QB, that he's more in that 12-15 range, and that he hasn't been able to elevate his team. . . however, when i took a closer look at the numbers, i think that's selling him a bit short. . .

    he has been a starter for three years, and he finished in the top 10 in passing yards all three of them (7th, 3rd, 10th). . . he also finished in the top ten in yards per attempt all three years, and finished top ten for completion percentage all three as well (including being 1st in 2015). . . he was 7th in TD passes this year, and 12th and 13th the previous two years. . . TD-to-turnover ratio is the only area where he hasn't put up high end production, and he's still been rated in the top half of the league in that metric as well, despite not having much talent to work with in the receiving corps. . . pierre garcon (who is solid but certainly nothing special) was their leading receiver the past two years, and jamison crowder was their top guy this year with a measly 66 catches for 789 yards and 3 TDs. . . this year, he lost his offensive coordinator and his two best receivers, and still managed to be very productive. . . IMO, he's proven that he can play at a high level regardless of circumstances-- i think he belongs right beside the likes of philip rivers and matt ryan in the QB rankings, and that is good enough. . .

    when considering team success, i didn't realize just how bad washington's defense has been. . . this year they were 21st in total defense and 27th in points per game. . . 2016 they were 28th in total D and 19th in PPG. . . 2015 they were 28th in total D, 16th in PPG. . . our defense should be better than that even if we do lose aqib. . .


    i still don't think he's likely to take us to a super bowl. . . but it's not like i'm counting on baker mayfield or josh allen to get us there, either. . . knight's not wrong that a top price QB makes your roster composition tougher due to salary constraints, but that will ultimately rear its head with a draft and develop guy as well-- if they work out, you have to pay them. . . if we were going to win with the No Fly Zone while we had a QB on his rookie deal, paxton would have had to be the guy. . . that window of utter defensive dominance has passed, though, and we need to find a QB if we want to get back to being competitive on a year-to-year basis. . . i absolutely think cousins is good enough to be that guy. . .

    for me, the real question is the cost. . . and a lot of that comes down to what kirk wants. . . he's already made a lot of money, and he seems like an extremely competitive guy-- is he simply looking to land the contract with the biggest number, or is he also taking the situation into account? and how badly does he want out of washington? i don't see any way you justify paying him 30+ million / year, but i think you have to seriously consider it if you could get him in the 25-27 range. . . personally, i still think drafting and developing is ultimately the best choice, but we're not going to have a chance to get darnold or rosen-- and we haven't exactly crushed it drafting quarterbacks. . . getting a look at mayfield and allen at the senior bowl will be big. . . it's gonna be a real interesting off-season, for sure. . .
    The only thing I disagree on is that Cousins can't take us to the SB. It won't happen the first few times he leads us to the playoffs...but it can happen. The only thing he lacks is a championship front office and vision, and playoff experience. We have that in our FO and can give him the latter. Even if it our front office/ Elway has gone astray - in a big way - when looking for the balance between quality QB and budget (repeat, a big way). I'm far from sure that we can land KC, especially since he's open to the Jets and the Browns...and the Browns have absolutely ridiculous draft and financial capital to build nothing short of an empire around him, if he goes that way. Elway can definitely make a team that will make the playoffs out of next year's draft with Cousins at the helm, though. From there, it's just a matter of letting him learn from his failings in the post-season. He's got it; He just hasn't been given the chance to use it...or develop it to the next level.

    Otherwise, hell yep to everything you said. The Browns might just get him though. He said he's open to it and although I can't imagine anyone choosing to live in Cleveland over Denver (sheer insanity, IMO), they have a mighty empire-in-waiting. 'Course that front office needs to grow up tons before it can build an empire out of shiney objects, with so far showing no clue how to use them. Still, it's tempting and Cousins (and his agent/ contacts/ friends/ etc.) probably know waaaaay more than I do about such things.

    Draft is good though. Mayfield seems like the kind of guy I can enjoy watching grow. It's up to Elway and we, of the BN, to be OK with the pains associated with franchise-level growth, though.
    Last edited by Ground Control; 01-15-2018 at 09:58 PM.

  2. #167

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slick View Post
    If Kirk Cousins is really a good QB or a "franchise" QB, why have the Redskins not negotiated a long term deal for him? I always got the feeling that they didn't want to give him a Joe Flacco or Matt Stafford type of deal. It was like they were scared to commit big money to him long term.

    We're so down on the QB situation in Denver that I think we're putting Cousins on a pedestal that he might not deserve to be on.
    The answer is "because they are cheap and stupid." Same answer to the question: "Why did Elway decide not to lock up Von Miller BEFORE the 2015 season, when (he later publicly stated) he would have taken a $16m a year contract. HE wound up SB MVP and hit UFA with maximum leverage. The Broncos are fortunate he decided to sign their contract offer at $18m a year, ending a possibly confrontational negotiation that would have soured relations between team and Von.

    The Redskins consistently undervalued Cousins. That's not the only screwup they made. Lots of teams have been caught flat-footed for some reason by the increases in market conditions and are trying to undervalue players. Players are fighting back. Cousins is an example of a player making use of his leverage in contract negotiations to secure maximum pay. And the Redskins failure to sign him to a long-term deal is just due to stupidity.

    They offered him $16m a year, which is well below market value. He stated publicly he would have signed for $19m a year, but they never offered this. Then they Franchised him for the 2nd time.

    Then GM Allen released a public statement throwing all the blame on Cousins and stating (falsely) that the team had offered him the highest QB compensation in the league, but insinuating that he was too greedy. This was a cover-your-ass attempt by Allen which immediately backfired amid widespread fan criticism and media ridicule. Plus, it alienated Cousins.

    He signed the 2nd franchise tender, had another good season, and here we are.

    Now they will either franchise him at $34.6m or else sign him to a long term deal based on his MARKET value (widely anticipated to be around $30m a year or more). He has insisted that he will want to see what the market rate will be.

    I don't see however, why he has to actually hit FA to find that out. His agent could receive indirect indications through intermediaries to determine what his real value is likely to be, and then he could demand the Redskins offer him that or he won't sign with them long term.

    He could also decide he wants out of Washington, but no public statement of his has indicated that he would be opposed to re-signing. They disrespected him, but that only backfired on them and led to him getting a lot more money. So he shouldn't be too mad at them.

  3. #168

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    I just read an article in the Denver Post. It made several points that somewhat clear up some misconceptions here:

    ES was also amongst the top ten in drop rate last year. ES carries a bigger cap # than DT this year. ES is 2 years older than DT.

    It seems to be pretty clear to me who they should drop. DT is a better player and it’s not close.

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  5. #169

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    Surprising that ES would be the 1 high on the drops list, he always had hands of glue before.

  6. #170

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    Without watching EVERY DROP, stats are pretty bland. Drops count if the player touches the ball even with his finger tips, if i recall.

    That being said, ES tries to catch everything no matter how badly thrown, so with the accuracy this group of QBS had, there is no doubt this years numbers were badly inflated.

    Of course, i didnt watch much of this year, and when i did it was lowlights at best, so im just assuming that maybe the numbers, at least this and last year, are inflated due to crap arms.
    Last edited by Krugan; 01-16-2018 at 11:56 AM.

  7. #171

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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    I just read an article in the Denver Post. It made several points that somewhat clear up some misconceptions here:

    ES was also amongst the top ten in drop rate last year. ES carries a bigger cap # than DT this year. ES is 2 years older than DT.

    It seems to be pretty clear to me who they should drop. DT is a better player and it’s not close.
    People want DT gone and I get why, but Sanders sucked last year, bad QB or no bad QB, injuries or no, he had a terrible year.

    The key thing with cutting Sanders, if we designate him post june 1 on the cut list he'll save us over $8 million with like $2 mil dead cap. It will cost us a ton in dead cap to cut DT, and won't save us what cutting Sanders does.

    Manny's days are numbered.

  8. #172

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick View Post
    Surprising that ES would be the 1 high on the drops list, he always had hands of glue before.
    That’s the perception, but statistically DT has always caught more of his targets and had a higher YPC average, against tougher coverage

  9. #173
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    i think it's likely that DT is willing to restructure. . . does he really want to play out his last seasons somewhere else over a couple million? his agent is probably doing some discreet asking around right now to see what he could get elsewhere if we do cut him loose. . .

  10. #174

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    i think it's likely that DT is willing to restructure. . . does he really want to play out his last seasons somewhere else over a couple million? his agent is probably doing some discreet asking around right now to see what he could get elsewhere if we do cut him loose. . .
    Someone will definitely pay him if he gets cut loose. He’s still a top ten guy

  11. #175

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    knight's not wrong that a top price QB makes your roster composition tougher due to salary constraints, but that will ultimately rear its head with a draft and develop guy as well-- if they work out, you have to pay them. . . if we were going to win with the No Fly Zone while we had a QB on his rookie deal, paxton would have had to be the guy. . . that window of utter defensive dominance has passed, though, and we need to find a QB if we want to get back to being competitive on a year-to-year basis. . . i absolutely think cousins is good enough to be that guy. . .
    It is actually easier to pay 1 guy $22 or $23m than to pay 11 guys and keep them all on the roster. To do that means you have properly identified every guy you want to keep and lock them up a year early, before they enter their last contract year so they never hit FA and get that ginormous salary.

    Keeping a bunch of key defenders is too expensive: note the Broncos defensive roster:

    Von Miller $18m
    Talib $12m
    Wolfe $10.75m
    Harris $10.3m
    Roby $8.5

    That is why they are trading or releasing Talib this off-season. You can't pay 3 CBs $31m a year without serious sacrifices elsewhere.

    For the last 2 years the Broncos have tried to get by with cheap QBs. Trevor cost them $750k, and Paxton and Osweiler got even less (Osweiler got $16m from the Browns, but only league minimum from the Broncos).

    Well, we all saw how well that worked out!

  12. #176

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freyaka View Post
    People want DT gone and I get why, but Sanders sucked last year, bad QB or no bad QB, injuries or no, he had a terrible year.

    The key thing with cutting Sanders, if we designate him post june 1 on the cut list he'll save us over $8 million with like $2 mil dead cap. It will cost us a ton in dead cap to cut DT, and won't save us what cutting Sanders does.

    Manny's days are numbered.
    Except that behind DT and Sanders there is exactly nothing. Maybe Tom Brady can get by with scrubs for WRs but the Broncos need real talent. And without those two, who is their starter?

    Cody Latimer? THAT'S really going to be just swell! (I had a lot of coffee today).

  13. #177

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    It is actually easier to pay 1 guy $22 or $23m than to pay 11 guys and keep them all on the roster. To do that means you have properly identified every guy you want to keep and lock them up a year early, before they enter their last contract year so they never hit FA and get that ginormous salary.

    Keeping a bunch of key defenders is too expensive: note the Broncos defensive roster:

    Von Miller $18m
    Talib $12m
    Wolfe $10.75m
    Harris $10.3m
    Roby $8.5

    That is why they are trading or releasing Talib this off-season. You can't pay 3 CBs $31m a year without serious sacrifices elsewhere.

    For the last 2 years the Broncos have tried to get by with cheap QBs. Trevor cost them $750k, and Paxton and Osweiler got even less (Osweiler got $16m from the Browns, but only league minimum from the Broncos).

    Well, we all saw how well that worked out!
    Talib right now is a high quality CB who would demand much more in FA than we're paying him.

    Wolfe signed a good deal for both sides - sans his injury he would have made what Jackson made. He took a discount, if you recall.

    Again, another CB vastly outperforming his contract, and one that's not close to being commensurate with his play.

    Roby, again another CB who could make more. The money on defense isn't screwing the team. We had enough cap space to sign Whitworth or Campbell. We didn't.

    You don't have to have cap space ala the Browns to have a workable roster.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

  14. #178
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    I wish we had Whitworth.*









    *if we had a competent QB.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    (I had a lot of coffee today).
    Stay close to the restroom . . .
    Though He slay me, I will trust in Him . . . (Job 13:15)


  16. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    The answer is "because they are cheap and stupid." Same answer to the question: "Why did Elway decide not to lock up Von Miller BEFORE the 2015 season, when (he later publicly stated) he would have taken a $16m a year contract. HE wound up SB MVP and hit UFA with maximum leverage. The Broncos are fortunate he decided to sign their contract offer at $18m a year, ending a possibly confrontational negotiation that would have soured relations between team and Von.

    The Redskins consistently undervalued Cousins. That's not the only screwup they made. Lots of teams have been caught flat-footed for some reason by the increases in market conditions and are trying to undervalue players. Players are fighting back. Cousins is an example of a player making use of his leverage in contract negotiations to secure maximum pay. And the Redskins failure to sign him to a long-term deal is just due to stupidity.

    They offered him $16m a year, which is well below market value. He stated publicly he would have signed for $19m a year, but they never offered this. Then they Franchised him for the 2nd time.

    Then GM Allen released a public statement throwing all the blame on Cousins and stating (falsely) that the team had offered him the highest QB compensation in the league, but insinuating that he was too greedy. This was a cover-your-ass attempt by Allen which immediately backfired amid widespread fan criticism and media ridicule. Plus, it alienated Cousins.

    He signed the 2nd franchise tender, had another good season, and here we are.

    Now they will either franchise him at $34.6m or else sign him to a long term deal based on his MARKET value (widely anticipated to be around $30m a year or more). He has insisted that he will want to see what the market rate will be.

    I don't see however, why he has to actually hit FA to find that out. His agent could receive indirect indications through intermediaries to determine what his real value is likely to be, and then he could demand the Redskins offer him that or he won't sign with them long term.

    He could also decide he wants out of Washington, but no public statement of his has indicated that he would be opposed to re-signing. They disrespected him, but that only backfired on them and led to him getting a lot more money. So he shouldn't be too mad at them.
    Stafford's new contract hits next season averages to $27M per year which is currently the league's top salary. I don't see Cousins getting anywhere near $30M per year. This is really just silliness that I think began with the number it would take Washington to franchise him for a 3rd straight year of $34M. But that has nothing to do with market value.

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