Thread: NFL Network Reports: Broncos Expected Now To Retain Vance Jospeph For Another Year!

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

I don't think you know how odds work. 100-1 means a huge long shot. When you say "100-1" to return, you are saying there is a 1% chance he returns.

There can be 100 chances of success for 1 chance of failure too. Another way of saying the same thing is "1% chance of getting fired." 100-1 doesn't automatically mean 100-1 against.

Originally Posted by Cugel

There can be 100 chances of success for 1 chance of failure too. Another way of saying the same thing is "1% chance of getting fired." 100-1 doesn't automatically mean 100-1 against.

Again, you don't understand how odds work. 100-1 doesn't and can't mean 100 successes for each 1 failure. It means the odds of something happening are 100-1, which is quite a longshot.

Any time the big number comes before the small number in gambing, it means that outcome has about a 50% chance or less of happening. If you're saying it's a virtual lock that he comes back, then the odds would be 1-100, not 100-1/

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Again, you don't understand how odds work. 100-1 doesn't and can't mean 100 successes for each 1 failure. It means the odds of something happening are 100-1, which is quite a longshot.

Any time the big number comes before the small number in gambing, it means that outcome has about a 50% chance or less of happening. If you're saying it's a virtual lock that he comes back, then the odds would be 1-100, not 100-1/

OK. I'm not in gambling, so I'm not thinking in terms of Vegas odds, and logically what I said was right. But, if it's confusing because people are thinking of gambling, then point taken.

But, in either case he's back. After 2 wins in the last 2 games Elway is re-hiring VJ for next season. The proof of this is that they are considering starting Paxton Lynch this week. VJ obviously does not want Paxton as his starter nor do the players want that. They are desperately trying to win games because losing gets players fired.

Elway however doesn't care. He wants to see Paxton a bit more because he's evaluating whether to keep him on the roster next season, and live regular season experience is key for him to know whether Paxton is developing at all or whether he's stalled out in hopeless mode.

VJ might be able to avoid doing this so they haven't announced a starter for next week. Since Brock balled out he'd be the obvious starter if you were concerned about winning. And if VJ were on the hot seat, then Elway would have to let him try and win the games with the best players he has. Not fair to force Paxton on him, and then fire him for not winning. No way they would do that.

So, conclusion: VJ is safe.

Originally Posted by Cugel

OK. I'm not in gambling, so I'm not thinking in terms of Vegas odds, and logically what I said was right. But, if it's confusing because people are thinking of gambling, then point taken.

But, in either case he's back. After 2 wins in the last 2 games Elway is re-hiring VJ for next season. The proof of this is that they are considering starting Paxton Lynch this week. VJ obviously does not want Paxton as his starter nor do the players want that. They are desperately trying to win games because losing gets players fired.

Elway however doesn't care. He wants to see Paxton a bit more because he's evaluating whether to keep him on the roster next season, and live regular season experience is key for him to know whether Paxton is developing at all or whether he's stalled out in hopeless mode.

VJ might be able to avoid doing this so they haven't announced a starter for next week. Since Brock balled out he'd be the obvious starter if you were concerned about winning. And if VJ were on the hot seat, then Elway would have to let him try and win the games with the best players he has. Not fair to force Paxton on him, and then fire him for not winning. No way they would do that.

So, conclusion: VJ is safe.

What if Elway had seen enough of VJ that his evaluation period was over? What if the evaluation of VJ extended to developing players? What if he made up his mind to fire him two weeks ago no matter the outcome of the last four games?

Not everything is so cut and dry Cugel. FWIW I believe VJ will be back next year, but to present it as fact is shortsighted at best.

I want to see how they close out the season. 8 game losing streak will test any teams resilience. If vj is retained and with this roster can bounce back to close season at 7-9 will be a good sign. It is something to learn from. Has any player on this team ever gone through this type of losing streak? I want to see what some young players can do and see how they play. The biggest sign of giving young players time is Charles not getting touches and extensive Booker. I understand playing the young players to evaluate but on offense even vets are playing for roster spots. Offense is working on chemistry and consistency. Lots of talk that DT, Sanders and others could be gone next season.

Positives I think cj locked his roster spot for next year. McGovern is a nice surprise. Ground game has been better.

Negatives the OL and continuity. Rotating the QB, RT and LG has killed chemistry of offense. Garcia and any RT suck. QB and starters on OL were not picked till end,of preseason. Bad coaching call IMO. TE sucks.

Last but not least ST blow. Need new coordinator.

Originally Posted by Davii

What if Elway had seen enough of VJ that his evaluation period was over? What if the evaluation of VJ extended to developing players? What if he made up his mind to fire him two weeks ago no matter the outcome of the last four games?

Not everything is so cut and dry Cugel. FWIW I believe VJ will be back next year, but to present it as fact is shortsighted at best.

It was reported on NFL.com. All sportswriters who talk to insiders in Dove Valley report the same thing. It IS cut and dried. YOU might not want to believe it, but it is.

Your scenario where Elway "made up his mind" already to fire VJ is just absurd. He didn't want to fire VJ, and after VJ won 2 straight games? ZERO chance.

It's a done deal whether you want to accept this or not. All the inside sports writers and radio guys say the same thing, and there are a lot of them. They aren't all wrong.

The question was whether the team would be competitive down the stretch, or whether they had given up on their coach. Well, they answered that question, balling out and kicking the garbage out of the Jets.

Positives I think cj locked his roster spot for next year. McGovern is a nice surprise. Ground game has been better.

If the team wants to sign a veteran FA QB, it's going to cost. A lot. Kirk Cousins is supposed to get more than $25m a year, with a 4 year contract, perhaps north of $70m guaranteed. This is what Adam Schefter is saying btw, not me.

Well, if the Broncos are going to bid in that sweepstakes, then they need to free up cap room. And the players they can get rid of are:

CJ Anderson: Hes making $4.5m next year and isn't worth it. They were forced to give him this contract when they underestimated how much of an offer he would get from Miami. Well, they overpaid. All the sportswriters are saying he's probably gone. Too much money and they need the cap room. RBs can be had cheaper than $4.5m. Possibly he would take less, but some other team will offer him $ so why would he? Gone.

DT - they can't cut him, but they could trade him to gain cap relief. He's due $15m so they would have to eat some of his salary. They tried to trade him during the season, but no dice.

Aqib: He's earning $12m and they can cut him for a cap hit of $1m. They have been planning to move Bradley Roby into his spot and save money for some time now, and now Roby is ready to make that move. Close to a certainty they release Talib in the off-season to get some cap room.

Sanders: He's earning $11m. Ideally they would move DT not Sanders, but they might not be able to and he's the next big $ player on this 5-11 roster.

BTW: I sure hope that Brock Olivo the STs cretin gets canned, but with VJ coming back? I haven't heard anything about whether he comes back, but VJ might just be loyal to his coaching staff and refuse to fire him. Elway can't really force the issue without firing Joseph which he never wanted to do to begin with.

Personally, I think Olivo should already be gone. Why he still has a job is a bottomless mystery. If I sucked as bad at my job as he does at his, I'd be totally out of a job long ago.

Hoping Olivo gets fired, talk about going out on a limb.

Originally Posted by chazoe60

Hoping Olivo gets fired, talk about going out on a limb.

True, but I don't want it to be forgotten! Don't let that loser stick around another year.

Wonder how much of it is to do with Elway not wanting to fire another HC during his tenure of VP of operations.

Originally Posted by tripp

Wonder how much of it is to do with Elway not wanting to fire another HC during his tenure of VP of operations.

About 0%.

Originally Posted by tripp

Wonder how much of it is to do with Elway not wanting to fire another HC during his tenure of VP of operations.

Obviously that part of it. It would reflect very badly on his judgment if he hired a dude and then had to fire him after 1 season. It would look like he couldn't judge coaching talent.

It would be a "long term coaching carousel." 4 coaches in 4 years? That's just horrible lack of continuity. It will be hard to convince FAs to consider coming here with that degree of instability where the team is always firing their head coach and starting a new coaching scheme. Players hate that. They fit in with one coach, but suddenly they are unwanted because the new coach has a different scheme and wants all his own players.

Nobody needs that.

The Case In Favor of Vance Joseph: As far as Elway is concerned he believed in Vance Joseph enough to hire him and wants him to succeed because they feel he could be a long term head coach for the organization, if they can get him untracked.

And it appears they did exactly that when Osweiler started playing good turnover free football, and the team won 2 in a row. That is exactly what Elway wanted to see to demonstrate that his confidence in Vance is not misplaced.

This points towards Elway's view that Mike McCoy was never a good fit in Denver. Supposedly, Vance wanted McCoy and Elway said yes. But, he wasn't Elway's man.

If that is true, and there's no proof, Elway could simply conclude that the offensive failures weren't really Vance's fault. He's an inexperienced head coach who trusted his offensive coordinator too much, and McCoy just flat refused to adjust the offense to the limited skill sets of his offensive line, that couldn't pass block 5 and 7 step drops and two inexperienced QBs who couldn't handle the pressure of being put in such a complicated offense.

In short, Elway could conclude the team is just lacking a QB, and that with Bill Musgrave they have a coordinator they can move forward with. If the team continues to respond to the new dumbed down offensive scheme, then that looks like a way forward.

Elway could logically think that if they had even mediocre QB play all season long, combined with an offense better suited to the talent on the roster, they could have won a lot more games, and maybe even competed to win the division and get into the playoffs. And with this defense in the playoffs, nobody will want to play the Broncos, if they have even an average offense.

I don't totally buy this theory BTW because I think the defense is undergoing a natural slow decline as players leave and this will be accelerated this off-season with further changes coming to the roster.

But, Elway might think like that, which would give him further confidence in Vance Joseph.

Cugel, think we should keep Brock? Answer in 10000 words or less.