Thread: Tanking--worth it?

I don't think tanking is worth it this season. You only tank if there is a lone player worth it. A QB. There are two names when it comes to top of the draft board QBs, Darnold and Rosen, and really it's probably just Rosen. He's not worth it.

So if you lose out and pick #2 or #3 overall, you probably still won't get the guy unless you sell your soul like Chicago did with SF this year.

I say you trust the process, build a winning culture, try to win every game. Until you get a winning staff and GM in place, all this tanking business is a pipe dream. I'd rather see the FO and coaching staff get their act together and win games.

I like winning.

It's like better than losing -- Nuke Laloosh.

Flat out trying to lose? No. Playing the young guys and seeing what happens? Definitely.

Meh, tank it. Even if you don’t think there’s a player worth drafting that high you have better trade bait to collect more picks.

Even if we were to tank - which we absolutely should... The players should still try to win every game. The trick is in saddling them with so little talent that they can't win.

Besides, players wouldn't and shouldn't agree to tanking as they are trying to put solid performance on film for their next contract, which may or may not be with the Broncos. So it's purely a front office/coaching strategy...

The other problem is that a first year Head Coach isn't going to try and throw games unless he has a ton of job security, which by definition no first year head coach has.

That said - we have absolutely nothing to gain from winning games this year, so from a front office standpoint they should be doing whatever maneuvering possible to assure a higher slot. But I just don't think the NFL is making those types of analytical decisions at the level that the NBA is.

Originally Posted by Buff

Even if we were to tank - which we absolutely should... The players should still try to win every game. The trick is in saddling them with so little talent that they can't win.

Besides, players wouldn't and shouldn't agree to tanking as they are trying to put solid performance on film for their next contract, which may or may not be with the Broncos. So it's purely a front office/coaching strategy...

The other problem is that a first year Head Coach isn't going to try and throw games unless he has a ton of job security, which by definition no first year head coach has.

That said - we have absolutely nothing to gain from winning games this year, so from a front office standpoint they should be doing whatever maneuvering possible to assure a higher slot. But I just don't think the NFL is making those types of analytical decisions at the level that the NBA is.

The one reason it's harder to justify tanking in the NFL as compared to the NBA is because of the impact any one player can make. In the NBA, one star player can make your franchise. So tanking is absolutely the best strategy to get that one guy. In the NFL, unless it's a once in a generation QB, that's probably not going to happen. And even with that type of QB, he could still get ruined behind a bad o-line. Most years, there just isn't that type of player in the draft to justify tanking in the NFL.

Then you have to consider the parity in both leagues. In the NBA, tanking to get a superstar is really the only way to get from the bottom to the top. In the NFL, you can make that jump much more realistically without picking in the top 5 each year. And it's not like our cupboard is bare right now. We have some good pieces.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

The one reason it's harder to justify tanking in the NFL as compared to the NBA is because of the impact any one player can make. In the NBA, one star player can make your franchise. So tanking is absolutely the best strategy to get that one guy. In the NFL, unless it's a once in a generation QB, that's probably not going to happen. And even with that type of QB, he could still get ruined behind a bad o-line. Most years, there just isn't that type of player in the draft to justify tanking in the NFL.

Then you have to consider the parity in both leagues. In the NBA, tanking to get a superstar is really the only way to get from the bottom to the top. In the NFL, you can make that jump much more realistically without picking in the top 5 each year. And it's not like our cupboard is bare right now. We have some good pieces.

This ^

The success rate on first round QBs is abysmal. Real, top-five blue chip offensive linemen are a better bet, but I'm not sure how many of them there are. While we all want a franchise QB, what the team desperately needs is a solid O-line.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

The one reason it's harder to justify tanking in the NFL as compared to the NBA is because of the impact any one player can make. In the NBA, one star player can make your franchise. So tanking is absolutely the best strategy to get that one guy. In the NFL, unless it's a once in a generation QB, that's probably not going to happen. And even with that type of QB, he could still get ruined behind a bad o-line. Most years, there just isn't that type of player in the draft to justify tanking in the NFL.

Then you have to consider the parity in both leagues. In the NBA, tanking to get a superstar is really the only way to get from the bottom to the top. In the NFL, you can make that jump much more realistically without picking in the top 5 each year. And it's not like our cupboard is bare right now. We have some good pieces.

But I think you guys are framing this as though it is some multi-year strategy akin to the Philly 76ers or the Cleveland Browns... In which case I agree with you - it's too inexact and the upside is not assured...

But in a lost season where you've already lost 8 games, you absolutely tank the 2nd half of the season as there is no upside in winning games.

Originally Posted by Tned

This ^

The success rate on first round QBs is abysmal. Real, top-five blue chip offensive linemen are a better bet, but I'm not sure how many of them there are. While we all want a franchise QB, what the team desperately needs is a solid O-line.

Yep. I mean, look at Andrew Luck. He's that once in a generation guy, but that franchise has basically ruined him now. You just can't bank on tanking in the NFL and getting that type of player who will single handedly carry you to titles. Just doesn't happen in this sport like it does the NBA.

Originally Posted by Buff

But I think you guys are framing this as though it is some multi-year strategy akin to the Philly 76ers or the Cleveland Browns... In which case I agree with you - it's too inexact and the upside is not assured...

But in a lost season where you've already lost 8 games, you absolutely tank the 2nd half of the season as there is no upside in winning games.

Agreed, which is why I said we should be playing as many young guys as possible the rest of the way.

Texans had #1 overall selection three times in a decade. They drafted David Carr, Mario Williams and Jadaveon Clowney. Worth it?

Originally Posted by Buff

But in a lost season where you've already lost 8 games, you absolutely tank the 2nd half of the season as there is no upside in winning games.

The upside is developing week-in-week-out winning ways at the coaching staff level.

We focus on our personnel, but the delta between picking 3/4th and picking 8th/12th isn't that great.

And I get Wave's point about evaluating/developing younger players by giving them more snaps.

But we also need to 'develop' our staff 'personnel' and see if they are worth keeping.

Or has the entire board already mentally moved on from VJ and I missed the memo?

Originally Posted by OrangeHoof

Texans had #1 overall selection three times in a decade. They drafted David Carr, Mario Williams and Jadaveon Clowney. Worth it?

We've had one Top 5 pick in 25 years and came away with a Super Bowl MVP and future HOFer. So yes?

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

The upside is developing week-in-week-out winning ways at the coaching staff level.

We focus on our personnel, but the delta between picking 3/4th and picking 8th/12th isn't that great.

And I get Wave's point about evaluating/developing younger players by giving them more snaps.

But we also need to 'develop' our staff 'personnel' and see if they are worth keeping.

Or has the entire board already mentally moved on from VJ and I missed the memo?

1.) VJ is a dead man walking. He gone.
2.) I'm not sure how much stock I put in these hard-to-define intangibles like "build winning culture". If we wanted to do that, we shouldn't have lost 7 in a row.
3.) You are probably right that the difference between 3 and 8 or 4 and 12 isn't THAT great... But IMO that tangible draft position gain is more of a reward than the "build winning culture" which may or may not actually be a thing when guys are playing out the string and then half the roster turns over in the off season.