Thread: Tanking--worth it?

Originally Posted by Buff

We've had one Top 5 pick in 25 years and came away with a Super Bowl MVP and future HOFer. So yes?

That's an outlier though. Even as far as top 5 picks go, most don't have THAT kind of career.

I’m not saying Tank the season, but if we happen to lose while seeing who is worth keeping I have no problem with that. Just don’t get blown out or shutout. 21-14 was perfect.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

That's an outlier though. Even as far as top 5 picks go, most don't have THAT kind of career.

Of course it is - I was just illustrating that the anecdotal game goes both ways.

Originally Posted by Buff

2.) I'm not sure how much stock I put in these hard-to-define intangibles like "build winning culture". If we wanted to do that, we shouldn't have lost 7 in a row.

Nearly every 1st year HC worth a damn had a bad first season. Even BB wasn't BB overnight. VJ has looked terribad this season, but these disasters can be teachable moments.

This is what I'm telling myself to avoid the pain that comes when I think we have to blow up staff again. This time with no Peyton Manning. Or with no killer defense. With only a pocketful of Elway hope.

Because if VJ doesn't work, it means our GM can't pick QBs or HCs...

Take that back...Fox and Kube were great selections.

Put the kids in, IR any half significant injury. Play to win and let 13 & 17 audition for next year's backup QB job. Likely catch a win or two. 5-11, draft 5thish.

The good news is, if our offense and special teams continue to suck we won’t have to tank. The only winnable game left will be the Colts

Originally Posted by Buff

Even if we were to tank - which we absolutely should... The players should still try to win every game. The trick is in saddling them with so little talent that they can't win.

Besides, players wouldn't and shouldn't agree to tanking as they are trying to put solid performance on film for their next contract, which may or may not be with the Broncos. So it's purely a front office/coaching strategy...

The other problem is that a first year Head Coach isn't going to try and throw games unless he has a ton of job security, which by definition no first year head coach has.

That said - we have absolutely nothing to gain from winning games this year, so from a front office standpoint they should be doing whatever maneuvering possible to assure a higher slot. But I just don't think the NFL is making those types of analytical decisions at the level that the NBA is.

The difference between winning a SB championship and being an also-ran is having an elite QB.

The Broncos do not have an elite QB. Some super duper expert posters know exactly whether any of the QBs in the draft will become an elite NFL QB and so conclude that Denver should not try and get one of them.

Fortunately for the Broncos these fans are not in charge of the team. Instead Elway will do what ever single other NFL team does. IF they don't have a franchise QB, they draft one, usually in the first round, and often in the top 10. About 1/2 of these QBs will fail, as will almost every single QB drafted in the 2nd or later rounds.

But, success in the NFL is so dependent on having an elite QB that if a team doesn't have one they have zero chance in the long term. Short term success is possible as the Broncos proved in 2015, but no team can win multiple championships without an elite QB.

The problem is that the Broncos, having won the SB in 2015 tried to replicate that success with Trevor Siemian at QB. That was never going to work. Paxton was supposed to be the Franchise QB but he hasn't been able to get on the field until now and we're seeing why as soon as he does.

So, it's back to the draft the Broncos must go. This is no longer a championship team that is just lacking a QB. They are lacking an interior pass-rusher, 2 ILBs who can cover TEs, and a CB to replace Talib who is unlikely to be back.

And the offense is lacking absolutely everything, except Emmanuel Sanders and Ron Leary.

So, they need a QB, a RT, a RG, a TE, a couple of RBs who can catch passes as well, and a slot WR.

By my count they need at least 9 new starters and possibly more. You will see that much turnover in the off-season as they dump salary and start rebuilding with new younger players.

The higher the draft picks, the better. And if that means losing every remaining game, then they will need to lose almost every game. They can't win with this roster anyway.

So, they might as well rebuild.

Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor

The good news is, if our offense and special teams continue to suck we won’t have to tank. The only winnable game left will be the Colts

That is a road game though and they haven't been able to win any road games this year. Not many home ones either. But, it doesn't look like this team can go on the road and beat anybody.

I will never, ever root for the Denver Broncos to lose a game. Ever. I don't care what the circumstances are.

Originally Posted by Hawgdriver

Nearly every 1st year HC worth a damn had a bad first season. Even BB wasn't BB overnight. VJ has looked terribad this season, but these disasters can be teachable moments.

This is what I'm telling myself to avoid the pain that comes when I think we have to blow up staff again. This time with no Peyton Manning. Or with no killer defense. With only a pocketful of Elway hope.

Because if VJ doesn't work, it means our GM can't pick QBs or HCs...

Elway chose Peyton Manning . . .

I don't think there's any need to tank. Teams in the NFL go up and down every year, at a far greater deviation than other sports. Baseball and NBA teams tank because there really is a five-year process. The average NFL player doesn't even last three years, and unless your talent evaluators really blow, you can get a quality, game-changing player anywhere in the first round, especially in the Top 10.

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

The one reason it's harder to justify tanking in the NFL as compared to the NBA is because of the impact any one player can make. In the NBA, one star player can make your franchise. So tanking is absolutely the best strategy to get that one guy. In the NFL, unless it's a once in a generation QB, that's probably not going to happen. And even with that type of QB, he could still get ruined behind a bad o-line. Most years, there just isn't that type of player in the draft to justify tanking in the NFL.

Then you have to consider the parity in both leagues. In the NBA, tanking to get a superstar is really the only way to get from the bottom to the top. In the NFL, you can make that jump much more realistically without picking in the top 5 each year. And it's not like our cupboard is bare right now. We have some good pieces.

The fact that NBA contracts are guaranteed also helps

Winning is not some magical thing that just happens when you accumulate enough high draft picks and play the QB lottery often enough.

It's the trait of a system.

If VJ and staff are toast, then fine. Each win is counterproductive except for the satisfaction that comes from winning a regular season game with no hope of a championship. Improve roster quality for future years.

But if VJ and staff still have an opportunity to build a dynasty in Denver, they need to correct their mistakes and find their formula. That is something requires an obsessive desire to win.

I don't see it happening with this head coach, but it's what I'd prefer to see.

Originally Posted by topscribe

Elway chose Peyton Manning . . .

Good point. Some notable evidence of the ability to find the right components, let's not react too strongly to recent developments.