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Thread: '18 QB Prospects

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slick View Post
    Ryan Leaf's? I know you ain't subtly saying the Duke. No effing way.
    I think he means Ryan Mallett
    Draft mode on:

    Cappy Kirk in FA.

    1. Bradley Chubb -DE
    2. Will Hernandez -Guard
    .........TBA

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  3. #302

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    Iím not saying heís the next John Elway. Iím just referring to a handful of highlights, you bunch of cranky ninnies. He can drop 60 yard dimes on the move, and yes it reminds me of Elway. Letís not forget, Elway had accuracy issues for about the first five years of his career.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    yes, extremely. . .




    i don't agree with this at all-- not even a little bit. . . so for fun, i'm gonna pull up the college career completion% of every QB who threw 25 or more passes in the NFL over the past two years-- let's see what it looks like. . .

    69.4 -- case keenum
    68.1 -- david fales
    68.1 -- scott tolzien
    67.6 -- sam bradford
    67.5 -- mitch trubisky
    67.5 -- cody kessler
    67.4 -- deshaun watson
    67.4 -- brett hundley
    67.4 -- geno smith
    67.1 -- robert griffin III
    66.9 -- ej manuel
    66.8 -- marcus mariota
    66.8 -- nick foles
    66.7 -- derek carr
    66.3 - alex smith
    66.0 -- jameis winston
    65.9 -- kevin hogan
    65.7 -- blake bortles
    65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
    65.4 -- cam newton
    64.6 -- sean mannion
    64.2 -- drew stanton
    64.1 -- carson wentz
    64.1 -- kirk cousins
    64.1 -- matt barkley
    63.8 -- aaron rodgers
    63.6 -- philip rivers
    63.6 -- landry jones
    63.7 -- patrick mahomes
    63.3 -- joe flacco
    62.9 -- paxton lynch
    62.8 -- dak prescott
    62.7 -- bryce petty
    62.3 -- jared goff
    62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
    62.3 -- tj yates
    61.9 -- tom shady
    61.7 -- andy dalton
    61.1 -- drew brees
    60.9 -- blaine gabbert
    60.9 -- russell wilson
    60.8 -- eli manning
    60.7 -- deshone kizer
    60.6 -- brock osweiler
    60.6 -- matt cassel
    60.4 -- mike glennon
    60.1 -- nathan peterman
    59.9 -- matt ryan
    59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
    59.5 -- jacoby brissett
    59.1 -- carson palmer
    58.9 -- trevor siemian
    58.5 -- matt moore
    58.2 -- colin kaepernick
    58.1 -- cj beathard
    57.5 -- connor cook
    57.2 -- jay cutler
    57.2 -- tyrod taylor
    57.1 -- matt stafford
    56.8 -- tom savage
    55.8 -- brian hoyer
    51.2 -- josh mccown
    50.7 -- derek anderson

    now, obviously, stats are far from the whole picture when evaluating college QBs-- we already know that. . . if there were one stat that was a reliable indicator of pro success, then we wouldn't have QBs busting left and right. . . but just a quick glance at this does clearly illustrates a few things. . . first and foremost, that high completion% in college most definitely doesn't guarantee success at the next level. . . the list is littered with busts and backups from the top to the bottom. . . however, we DO see that low completion % in college does tend to translate to low success rate. . . i personally would set the mendoza line @ 60.8 (eli, FTR). . . below that, you only find two real quality starters-- matt ryan and matt stafford. . . you can argue carson palmer, but he hasn't been special. . . most of what you find below that line are backups and bums. . .

    now, for even more fun, i've added all the 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted over the past ten years, along with this year's top prospects. . . and also highlighted certain players-- current high end starters in elite orange, promising up and comers in yellow, failed high picks in green, and this year's draftees in red. . .

    69.5 -- brandon weeden
    69.4 -- case keenum
    68.9 -- johnny manziel
    68.5 -- baker mayfield
    68.4 -- teddy bridgewater
    68.3 -- luke falk
    68.1 -- david fales
    68.1 -- scott tolzien
    67.6 -- sam bradford
    67.5 -- mitch trubisky
    67.5 -- cody kessler
    67.4 -- deshaun watson
    67.4 -- brett hundley
    67.4 -- geno smith
    67.1 -- robert griffin III
    67.0 -- andrew luck
    66.9 -- ej manuel
    66.8 -- marcus mariota
    66.8 -- nick foles
    66.7 -- derek carr
    66.4 -- tim tebow
    66.3 - alex smith
    66.0 -- jameis winston
    65.9 -- kevin hogan
    65.8 -- brian brohm
    65.7 -- blake bortles
    65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
    65.4 -- cam newton
    64.9 -- sam darnold
    64.8 -- pat white
    64.6 -- sean mannion
    64.4 -- jake browning
    64.3 -- mark sanchez
    64.2 -- drew stanton
    64.1 -- carson wentz
    64.1 -- kirk cousins
    64.1 -- matt barkley
    63.8 -- aaron rodgers
    63.6 -- philip rivers
    63.7 -- patrick mahomes
    63.6 -- landry jones
    63.3 -- joe flacco
    63.2 -- mason rudolph
    62.9 -- paxton lynch
    62.8 -- dak prescott
    62.7 -- bryce petty
    62.6 -- jimmy clausen
    62.5 -- ryan tannehill
    62.3 -- jared goff
    62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
    62.3 -- tj yates
    61.9 -- tom shady
    61.7 -- andy dalton
    61.1 -- drew brees
    60.9 -- blaine gabbert
    60.9 -- russell wilson
    60.8 -- eli manning
    60.8 -- josh rosen

    __________________________________________________ ________________________________________

    60.7 -- deshone kizer
    60.6 -- brock osweiler
    60.6 -- matt cassel
    60.4 -- mike glennon
    60.1 -- nathan peterman
    59.9 -- matt ryan
    59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
    59.7 -- chad henne
    59.5 -- jacoby brissett
    59.1 -- carson palmer
    59.1 -- josh freeman
    58.9 -- trevor siemian
    58.5 -- matt moore
    58.2 -- colin kaepernick
    58.1 -- cj beathard
    57.5 -- connor cook
    57.2 -- jay cutler
    57.2 -- tyrod taylor
    57.1 -- matt stafford
    57.0 -- lamar jackson
    56.8 -- tom savage
    56.2 -- josh allen
    56.1 -- christian hackenburg
    55.8 -- brian hoyer
    54.0 -- jake locker
    51.2 -- josh mccown
    50.7 -- derek anderson

    ultimately, this doesn't tell us anything about allen's future. . . a few other guys have overcome such low numbers to develop into quality NFL starters. . . not many, though-- allen's % really is borderline-historically low for modern era prospects. . . his % isn't just bad, it is downright jake locker-ish-- and if that doesn't give you real pause, i think maybe it should. . .


    *stats from sportsreference.com
    My issue with stats is it is career college stats. If you take their senior years it can paint a different story. My example Russell Wilson 72% completion his last year and an average of 60.9%

    I would be more interested in QBR over completion %

  5. #304
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    Top 100 QBR college ranking



    Rk Player Rate Year
    ▼ School
    1 Baker Mayfield 198.90 2017 Oklahoma
    2 McKenzie Milton 179.29 2017 UCF
    3 Mason Rudolph 170.56 2017 Oklahoma State
    4 Drew Lock 165.67 2017 Missouri
    5 Baker Mayfield* 196.39 2016 Oklahoma
    6 Logan Woodside* 183.33 2016 Toledo
    7 Mike White* 181.39 2016 Western Kentucky
    8 Zach Terrell* 175.24 2016 Western Michigan
    9 Nick Stevens* 171.31 2016 Colorado State
    10 Ryan Higgins* 168.57 2016 Louisiana Tech
    11 Jake Browning* 167.52 2016 Washington
    12 Vernon Adams* 179.08 2015 Oregon
    13 Brandon Doughty* 176.49 2015 Western Kentucky
    14 Baker Mayfield* 173.32 2015 Oklahoma
    15 Kevin Hogan* 171.03 2015 Stanford
    16 Brandon Allen* 166.48 2015 Arkansas
    17 Matt Johnson* 164.19 2015 Bowling Green State
    18 Marcus Mariota* 181.74 2014 Oregon
    19 J.T. Barrett* 169.83 2014 Ohio State
    20 Brandon Doughty* 167.11 2014 Western Kentucky
    21 Cody Kessler* 167.05 2014 USC
    22 Garrett Grayson* 166.22 2014 Colorado State
    23 Zach Terrell* 164.41 2014 Western Michigan
    24 Jameis Winston* 184.84 2013 Florida State
    25 Bryce Petty* 174.29 2013 Baylor
    26 Johnny Manziel* 172.88 2013 Texas A&M
    27 Zach Mettenberger* 171.45 2013 LSU
    28 Teddy Bridgewater* 171.14 2013 Louisville
    29 Tajh Boyd* 168.69 2013 Clemson
    30 Marcus Mariota* 167.66 2013 Oregon
    31 A.J. McCarron* 167.17 2013 Alabama
    32 A.J. McCarron* 175.28 2012 Alabama
    33 Aaron Murray* 174.82 2012 Georgia
    34 David Fales* 170.76 2012 San Jose State
    35 Tajh Boyd* 165.59 2012 Clemson
    36 Russell Wilson* 191.78 2011 Wisconsin
    37 Robert Griffin III* 189.48 2011 Baylor
    38 Kellen Moore* 175.19 2011 Boise State
    39 Case Keenum* 174.03 2011 Houston
    40 Andrew Luck* 169.69 2011 Stanford
    41 Terrance Owens* 169.24 2011 Toledo
    42 Kellen Moore* 182.63 2010 Boise State
    43 Cam Newton* 182.05 2010 Auburn
    44 Andrew Luck* 170.16 2010 Stanford
    45 Greg McElroy* 168.98 2010 Alabama
    46 Andy Dalton* 166.48 2010 Texas Christian
    47 Scott Tolzien* 165.92 2010 Wisconsin
    48 Tim Tebow* 164.17 2009 Florida
    49 Sam Bradford* 180.84 2008 Oklahoma
    50 David Johnson* 178.69 2008 Tulsa
    51 Colt McCoy* 173.75 2008 Texas
    52 Tim Tebow* 172.37 2008 Florida
    53 Zac Robinson* 166.84 2008 Oklahoma State
    54 Mark Sanchez* 164.64 2008 USC
    55 Sam Bradford* 176.53 2007 Oklahoma
    56 Tim Tebow* 172.46 2007 Florida
    57 Colt Brennan* 185.96 2006 Hawaii
    58 John Beck* 169.05 2006 Brigham Young
    59 JaMarcus Russell* 167.03 2006 LSU
    60 Rudy Carpenter* 175.01 2005 Arizona State
    61 Brian Brohm* 166.73 2005 Louisville
    62 Stefan Lefors* 181.74 2004 Louisville
    63 Alex Smith* 176.52 2004 Utah
    64 Jason Campbell* 172.89 2004 Auburn
    65 Omar Jacobs* 167.20 2004 Bowling Green State
    66 Philip Rivers* 170.49 2003 North Carolina State
    67 Ben Roethlisberger* 165.84 2003 Miami (OH)
    68 Matt Leinart* 164.45 2003 USC
    69 Rex Grossman 170.75 2001 Florida
    70 Wes Counts 166.63 2001 Middle Tennessee State
    71 Jeff Smoker* 166.39 2001 Michigan State
    72 David Carr* 165.91 2001 Fresno State
    73 Ryan Dinwiddie 164.69 2001 Boise State
    74 Byron Leftwich 164.57 2001 Marshall
    75 Bart Hendricks 170.63 2000 Boise State
    76 Joe Hamilton 175.00 1999 Georgia Tech
    77 Chad Pennington 171.41 1999 Marshall
    78 Michael Vick* 171.08 1999 Virginia Tech
    79 Shaun King* 178.71 1998 Tulane
    80 Daunte Culpepper 170.24 1998 UCF
    81 Akili Smith* 167.30 1998 Oregon
    82 Tim Rattay 164.76 1998 Louisiana Tech
    83 Cade McNown* 166.01 1997 UCLA
    84 Steve Sarkisian 173.56 1996 Brigham Young
    85 Danny Wuerffel 170.61 1996 Florida
    86 Billy Blanton 169.55 1996 San Diego State
    87 Danny Wuerffel 178.41 1995 Florida
    88 Kerry Collins 172.85 1994 Penn State
    89 Trent Dilfer* 167.20 1993 Fresno State
    90 Dave Barr* 164.47 1993 California
    91 Ty Detmer 168.51 1991 Brigham Young
    92 Ty Detmer 175.64 1989 Brigham Young
    93 Don McPherson 164.30 1987 Syracuse
    94 Vinny Testaverde 165.79 1986 Miami (FL)
    95 Steve Young 168.45 1983 Brigham Young
    96 Jim McMahon 176.87 1980 Brigham Young
    97 Dave Wilson 164.17 1977 Ball State
    98 Brian Dowling 165.77 1968 Yale
    99 Jerry Rhome 172.60 1964 Tulsa
    100 Bob Berry 164.04 1963 Oregon


    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...er-season.html
    Last edited by NightTerror218; Yesterday at 07:58 PM.

  6. #305

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    I'd prefer Allen over Mayfield if it's between the two.

    Falk over both.

  7. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by NightTerror218 View Post
    My issue with stats is it is career college stats. If you take their senior years it can paint a different story. My example Russell Wilson 72% completion his last year and an average of 60.9%

    I would be more interested in QBR over completion %
    allen's % was 56.0 last year, and 56.3 this year. . .

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  9. #307
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    Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.
    The sharp edge of a razor is difficult to pass over; thus the wise say the path to Salvation is hard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.
    Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.

  11. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.
    Tell me about him
    Draft mode on:

    Cappy Kirk in FA.

    1. Bradley Chubb -DE
    2. Will Hernandez -Guard
    .........TBA

  12. #310

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawgdriver View Post
    Let's talk Rudolph and Falk.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy View Post
    Rudolph is the sleeper that could rise to the first round. He's my #3 QB.
    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    Tell me about him
    Tell me as well

  13. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    allen's % was 56.0 last year, and 56.3 this year. . .
    Chad Kelly, in his junior year had 458 attempts, had a 65% and 13 ints in the SEC.

    Josh Allen in his only full season had 373 attempts, completed 56% and threw 15 ints...in the Mountain West conference.

    Huh...what should we make of that? Nothing?

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