yes, extremely. . .
i don't agree with this at all-- not even a little bit. . . so for fun, i'm gonna pull up the college career completion% of every QB who threw 25 or more passes in the NFL over the past two years-- let's see what it looks like. . .
69.4 -- case keenum
68.1 -- david fales
68.1 -- scott tolzien
67.6 -- sam bradford
67.5 -- mitch trubisky
67.5 -- cody kessler
67.4 -- deshaun watson
67.4 -- brett hundley
67.4 -- geno smith
67.1 -- robert griffin III
66.9 -- ej manuel
66.8 -- marcus mariota
66.8 -- nick foles
66.7 -- derek carr
66.3 - alex smith
66.0 -- jameis winston
65.9 -- kevin hogan
65.7 -- blake bortles
65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
65.4 -- cam newton
64.6 -- sean mannion
64.2 -- drew stanton
64.1 -- carson wentz
64.1 -- kirk cousins
64.1 -- matt barkley
63.8 -- aaron rodgers
63.6 -- philip rivers
63.6 -- landry jones
63.7 -- patrick mahomes
63.3 -- joe flacco
62.9 -- paxton lynch
62.8 -- dak prescott
62.7 -- bryce petty
62.3 -- jared goff
62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
62.3 -- tj yates
61.9 -- tom shady
61.7 -- andy dalton
61.1 -- drew brees
60.9 -- blaine gabbert
60.9 -- russell wilson
60.8 -- eli manning
60.7 -- deshone kizer
60.6 -- brock osweiler
60.6 -- matt cassel
60.4 -- mike glennon
60.1 -- nathan peterman
59.9 -- matt ryan
59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
59.5 -- jacoby brissett
59.1 -- carson palmer
58.9 -- trevor siemian
58.5 -- matt moore
58.2 -- colin kaepernick
58.1 -- cj beathard
57.5 -- connor cook
57.2 -- jay cutler
57.2 -- tyrod taylor
57.1 -- matt stafford
56.8 -- tom savage
55.8 -- brian hoyer
51.2 -- josh mccown
50.7 -- derek anderson
now, obviously, stats are far from the whole picture when evaluating college QBs-- we already know that. . . if there were one stat that was a reliable indicator of pro success, then we wouldn't have QBs busting left and right. . . but just a quick glance at this does clearly illustrates a few things. . . first and foremost, that high completion% in college most definitely doesn't guarantee success at the next level. . . the list is littered with busts and backups from the top to the bottom. . . however, we DO see that low completion % in college does tend to translate to low success rate. . . i personally would set the mendoza line @ 60.8 (eli, FTR). . . below that, you only find two real quality starters-- matt ryan and matt stafford. . . you can argue carson palmer, but he hasn't been special. . . most of what you find below that line are backups and bums. . .
now, for even more fun, i've added all the 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted over the past ten years, along with this year's top prospects. . . and also highlighted certain players-- current high end starters in elite orange, promising up and comers in yellow, failed high picks in green, and this year's draftees in red. . .
69.5 -- brandon weeden
69.4 -- case keenum
68.9 -- johnny manziel
68.5 -- baker mayfield
68.4 -- teddy bridgewater
68.3 -- luke falk
68.1 -- david fales
68.1 -- scott tolzien
67.6 -- sam bradford
67.5 -- mitch trubisky
67.5 -- cody kessler
67.4 -- deshaun watson
67.4 -- brett hundley
67.4 -- geno smith
67.1 -- robert griffin III
67.0 -- andrew luck
66.9 -- ej manuel
66.8 -- marcus mariota
66.8 -- nick foles
66.7 -- derek carr
66.4 -- tim tebow
66.3 - alex smith
66.0 -- jameis winston
65.9 -- kevin hogan
65.8 -- brian brohm
65.7 -- blake bortles
65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
65.4 -- cam newton
64.9 -- sam darnold
64.8 -- pat white
64.6 -- sean mannion
64.4 -- jake browning
64.3 -- mark sanchez
64.2 -- drew stanton
64.1 -- carson wentz
64.1 -- kirk cousins
64.1 -- matt barkley
63.8 -- aaron rodgers
63.6 -- philip rivers
63.7 -- patrick mahomes
63.6 -- landry jones
63.3 -- joe flacco
63.2 -- mason rudolph
62.9 -- paxton lynch
62.8 -- dak prescott
62.7 -- bryce petty
62.6 -- jimmy clausen
62.5 -- ryan tannehill
62.3 -- jared goff
62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
62.3 -- tj yates
61.9 -- tom shady
61.7 -- andy dalton
61.1 -- drew brees
60.9 -- blaine gabbert
60.9 -- russell wilson
60.8 -- eli manning
60.8 -- josh rosen
__________________________________________________ ________________________________________
60.7 -- deshone kizer
60.6 -- brock osweiler
60.6 -- matt cassel
60.4 -- mike glennon
60.1 -- nathan peterman
59.9 -- matt ryan
59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
59.7 -- chad henne
59.5 -- jacoby brissett
59.1 -- carson palmer
59.1 -- josh freeman
58.9 -- trevor siemian
58.5 -- matt moore
58.2 -- colin kaepernick
58.1 -- cj beathard
57.5 -- connor cook
57.2 -- jay cutler
57.2 -- tyrod taylor
57.1 -- matt stafford
57.0 -- lamar jackson
56.8 -- tom savage
56.2 -- josh allen
56.1 -- christian hackenburg
55.8 -- brian hoyer
54.0 -- jake locker
51.2 -- josh mccown
50.7 -- derek anderson
ultimately, this doesn't tell us anything about allen's future. . . a few other guys have overcome such low numbers to develop into quality NFL starters. . . not many, though-- allen's % really is borderline-historically low for modern era prospects. . . his % isn't just bad, it is downright jake locker-ish-- and if that doesn't give you real pause, i think maybe it should. . .
*stats from sportsreference.com
Last edited by dogfish; 01-18-2018 at 09:50 PM.
David Fales had 50 passing attempts? Who the **** is David Fales?
Also, shame on you for failing to add my boy Jake Browning in there!
Shame, dog. Shame!
This is diving deeper, but is there a strong-armed quarterback who's senior numbers were worse than his junior numbers who went on to success or failure to comp? Can we draw any conclusions about how that player was developed, who he was drafted by or what sort of college system he was in?
I think a deeper dive like that could tell us more than completion percentage.
While I would agree that Mayfield's arm isnt AS strong as Allen, it is still plenty strong enough for the NFL. I mean...Brady doesnt have the arm strength of Lynch, so there's that.
As far as durability, I'm guessing your making an assumption based on physical size. But it's not like Mayfield has had injury issues. If we're basing decisions on injury risk, then a guy like Josh Rosen suddenly becomes a 2nd round prospect.
As far as your comparisons...I wont even go there because comparisons are ridiculous in any capacity. I think the two most important things to look at in QB's is skill set and intangibles. While we can debate the skills of all the QB's until we're blue in the face, the intangibles speak for themselves. IMO Mayfiled comes with probably the most succinct intangibles that we've seen in a long time. There is no question as to his leadership, competitiveness, desire, heart, etc. He's the one guy in this group that teammates would run through a wall for and he would do the same for them. As I've said before...if he were 3 inches taller, this wouldnt even be a debate.
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