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Thread: '18 QB Prospects

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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    Allen is 6’5”. The giraffe comments make zero sense.
    What giraffe? Just saying he is the tallest QB, and based on what Elway likes, height might be the factor that separates Allen from Mayfield.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Broncoknight30 View Post
    Would everyone be pissed as hell if Elway drafts Josh Allen like McShay is predicting?
    yes, extremely. . .


    Quote Originally Posted by elsid13 View Post
    Also the completion percentage might be a stat that no longer matters at the college level with the number of teams playing some type of spread offense.
    i don't agree with this at all-- not even a little bit. . . so for fun, i'm gonna pull up the college career completion% of every QB who threw 25 or more passes in the NFL over the past two years-- let's see what it looks like. . .

    69.4 -- case keenum
    68.1 -- david fales
    68.1 -- scott tolzien
    67.6 -- sam bradford
    67.5 -- mitch trubisky
    67.5 -- cody kessler
    67.4 -- deshaun watson
    67.4 -- brett hundley
    67.4 -- geno smith
    67.1 -- robert griffin III
    66.9 -- ej manuel
    66.8 -- marcus mariota
    66.8 -- nick foles
    66.7 -- derek carr
    66.3 - alex smith
    66.0 -- jameis winston
    65.9 -- kevin hogan
    65.7 -- blake bortles
    65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
    65.4 -- cam newton
    64.6 -- sean mannion
    64.2 -- drew stanton
    64.1 -- carson wentz
    64.1 -- kirk cousins
    64.1 -- matt barkley
    63.8 -- aaron rodgers
    63.6 -- philip rivers
    63.6 -- landry jones
    63.7 -- patrick mahomes
    63.3 -- joe flacco
    62.9 -- paxton lynch
    62.8 -- dak prescott
    62.7 -- bryce petty
    62.3 -- jared goff
    62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
    62.3 -- tj yates
    61.9 -- tom shady
    61.7 -- andy dalton
    61.1 -- drew brees
    60.9 -- blaine gabbert
    60.9 -- russell wilson
    60.8 -- eli manning
    60.7 -- deshone kizer
    60.6 -- brock osweiler
    60.6 -- matt cassel
    60.4 -- mike glennon
    60.1 -- nathan peterman
    59.9 -- matt ryan
    59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
    59.5 -- jacoby brissett
    59.1 -- carson palmer
    58.9 -- trevor siemian
    58.5 -- matt moore
    58.2 -- colin kaepernick
    58.1 -- cj beathard
    57.5 -- connor cook
    57.2 -- jay cutler
    57.2 -- tyrod taylor
    57.1 -- matt stafford
    56.8 -- tom savage
    55.8 -- brian hoyer
    51.2 -- josh mccown
    50.7 -- derek anderson

    now, obviously, stats are far from the whole picture when evaluating college QBs-- we already know that. . . if there were one stat that was a reliable indicator of pro success, then we wouldn't have QBs busting left and right. . . but just a quick glance at this does clearly illustrates a few things. . . first and foremost, that high completion% in college most definitely doesn't guarantee success at the next level. . . the list is littered with busts and backups from the top to the bottom. . . however, we DO see that low completion % in college does tend to translate to low success rate. . . i personally would set the mendoza line @ 60.8 (eli, FTR). . . below that, you only find two real quality starters-- matt ryan and matt stafford. . . you can argue carson palmer, but he hasn't been special. . . most of what you find below that line are backups and bums. . .

    now, for even more fun, i've added all the 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted over the past ten years, along with this year's top prospects. . . and also highlighted certain players-- current high end starters in elite orange, promising up and comers in yellow, failed high picks in green, and this year's draftees in red. . .

    69.5 -- brandon weeden
    69.4 -- case keenum
    68.9 -- johnny manziel
    68.5 -- baker mayfield
    68.4 -- teddy bridgewater
    68.3 -- luke falk
    68.1 -- david fales
    68.1 -- scott tolzien
    67.6 -- sam bradford
    67.5 -- mitch trubisky
    67.5 -- cody kessler
    67.4 -- deshaun watson
    67.4 -- brett hundley
    67.4 -- geno smith
    67.1 -- robert griffin III
    67.0 -- andrew luck
    66.9 -- ej manuel
    66.8 -- marcus mariota
    66.8 -- nick foles
    66.7 -- derek carr
    66.4 -- tim tebow
    66.3 - alex smith
    66.0 -- jameis winston
    65.9 -- kevin hogan
    65.8 -- brian brohm
    65.7 -- blake bortles
    65.5 -- ben roethlisberger
    65.4 -- cam newton
    64.9 -- sam darnold
    64.8 -- pat white
    64.6 -- sean mannion
    64.4 -- jake browning
    64.3 -- mark sanchez
    64.2 -- drew stanton
    64.1 -- carson wentz
    64.1 -- kirk cousins
    64.1 -- matt barkley
    63.8 -- aaron rodgers
    63.6 -- philip rivers
    63.7 -- patrick mahomes
    63.6 -- landry jones
    63.3 -- joe flacco
    63.2 -- mason rudolph
    62.9 -- paxton lynch
    62.8 -- dak prescott
    62.7 -- bryce petty
    62.6 -- jimmy clausen
    62.5 -- ryan tannehill
    62.3 -- jared goff
    62.3 -- jimmy garappolo
    62.3 -- tj yates
    61.9 -- tom shady
    61.7 -- andy dalton
    61.1 -- drew brees
    60.9 -- blaine gabbert
    60.9 -- russell wilson
    60.8 -- eli manning
    60.8 -- josh rosen

    __________________________________________________ ________________________________________

    60.7 -- deshone kizer
    60.6 -- brock osweiler
    60.6 -- matt cassel
    60.4 -- mike glennon
    60.1 -- nathan peterman
    59.9 -- matt ryan
    59.7 -- charlie whitehurst
    59.7 -- chad henne
    59.5 -- jacoby brissett
    59.1 -- carson palmer
    59.1 -- josh freeman
    58.9 -- trevor siemian
    58.5 -- matt moore
    58.2 -- colin kaepernick
    58.1 -- cj beathard
    57.5 -- connor cook
    57.2 -- jay cutler
    57.2 -- tyrod taylor
    57.1 -- matt stafford
    57.0 -- lamar jackson
    56.8 -- tom savage
    56.2 -- josh allen
    56.1 -- christian hackenburg
    55.8 -- brian hoyer
    54.0 -- jake locker
    51.2 -- josh mccown
    50.7 -- derek anderson

    ultimately, this doesn't tell us anything about allen's future. . . a few other guys have overcome such low numbers to develop into quality NFL starters. . . not many, though-- allen's % really is borderline-historically low for modern era prospects. . . his % isn't just bad, it is downright jake locker-ish-- and if that doesn't give you real pause, i think maybe it should. . .


    *stats from sportsreference.com
    Last edited by dogfish; 01-18-2018 at 09:50 PM.

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  4. #288
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    David Fales had 50 passing attempts? Who the **** is David Fales?
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Also, shame on you for failing to add my boy Jake Browning in there!

    Shame, dog. Shame!
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    Also, shame on you for failing to add my boy Jake Browning in there!

    Shame, dog. Shame!
    i never see anyone but you refer to him as a potential high pick/starter. . . i only included the top handful of guys as i typically see them projected. . . nonetheless, i will stick him up there for you. . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    i never see anyone but you refer to him as a potential high pick/starter. . . i only included the top handful of guys as i typically see them projected. . . nonetheless, i will stick him up there for you. . .
    You have Luke Falk on there!
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    You have Luke Falk on there!
    and jake browning. . . let's discuss the intent of the post rather than quibble over minutia, shall we?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    and jake browning. . . let's discuss the intent of the post rather than quibble over minutia, shall we?
    I don't see a definitive answer one way or the other.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    This is diving deeper, but is there a strong-armed quarterback who's senior numbers were worse than his junior numbers who went on to success or failure to comp? Can we draw any conclusions about how that player was developed, who he was drafted by or what sort of college system he was in?

    I think a deeper dive like that could tell us more than completion percentage.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    This is diving deeper, but is there a strong-armed quarterback who's senior numbers were worse than his junior numbers who went on to success or failure to comp? Can we draw any conclusions about how that player was developed, who he was drafted by or what sort of college system he was in?

    I think a deeper dive like that could tell us more than completion percentage.
    great idea. . . that's going to be a lot of research, so you should probably get started on it soon. . .


    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    I don't see a definitive answer one way or the other.
    naturally. . . that wasn't intended to be the point of the exercise. . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Broncoknight30 View Post
    What giraffe? Just saying he is the tallest QB, and based on what Elway likes, height might be the factor that separates Allen from Mayfield.
    Mayfield does not have the durability or arm strength Allen does. Allen is similar to Big Ben. Mayfield is similar to Manziel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogfish View Post
    great idea. . . that's going to be a lot of research, so you should probably get started on it soon. . .




    naturally. . . that wasn't intended to be the point of the exercise. . .
    Hey now. This is your project, homeslice. I’ll give you two freebies: Matthew Stafford on upside and Christian Hackenberg on down...
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    Mayfield does not have the durability or arm strength Allen does. Allen is similar to Big Ben. Mayfield is similar to Manziel.
    While I would agree that Mayfield's arm isnt AS strong as Allen, it is still plenty strong enough for the NFL. I mean...Brady doesnt have the arm strength of Lynch, so there's that.

    As far as durability, I'm guessing your making an assumption based on physical size. But it's not like Mayfield has had injury issues. If we're basing decisions on injury risk, then a guy like Josh Rosen suddenly becomes a 2nd round prospect.

    As far as your comparisons...I wont even go there because comparisons are ridiculous in any capacity. I think the two most important things to look at in QB's is skill set and intangibles. While we can debate the skills of all the QB's until we're blue in the face, the intangibles speak for themselves. IMO Mayfiled comes with probably the most succinct intangibles that we've seen in a long time. There is no question as to his leadership, competitiveness, desire, heart, etc. He's the one guy in this group that teammates would run through a wall for and he would do the same for them. As I've said before...if he were 3 inches taller, this wouldnt even be a debate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachChaz View Post
    While I would agree that Mayfield's arm isnt AS strong as Allen, it is still plenty strong enough for the NFL. I mean...Brady doesnt have the arm strength of Lynch, so there's that.

    As far as durability, I'm guessing your making an assumption based on physical size. But it's not like Mayfield has had injury issues. If we're basing decisions on injury risk, then a guy like Josh Rosen suddenly becomes a 2nd round prospect.

    As far as your comparisons...I wont even go there because comparisons are ridiculous in any capacity. I think the two most important things to look at in QB's is skill set and intangibles. While we can debate the skills of all the QB's until we're blue in the face, the intangibles speak for themselves. IMO Mayfiled comes with probably the most succinct intangibles that we've seen in a long time. There is no question as to his leadership, competitiveness, desire, heart, etc. He's the one guy in this group that teammates would run through a wall for and he would do the same for them. As I've said before...if he were 3 inches taller, this wouldnt even be a debate.
    I agree comparing qb’s can be a little silly. We have no idea what Allen will he like. My only point was, it’s silly to compare Allen to Mayfeild because they are not very similar. Allen’s tape reminds of a guy who played in the NFL, but it wasn’t Ben.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    I agree comparing qb’s can be a little silly. We have no idea what Allen will he like. My only point was, it’s silly to compare Allen to Mayfeild because they are not very similar. Allen’s tape reminds of a guy who played in the NFL, but it wasn’t Ben.
    Ryan Leaf's? I know you ain't subtly saying the Duke. No effing way.

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