Thread: Some of Lynch's best attributes...accordbing to Musgrave.

Originally Posted by Tned

Well, I was grabbing a list of top 10 QBs before reading this, but it dove tails in nicely. So, based on this list, the odds of hitting are better, but still pretty miserable. Some might disagree with my hit/miss (Bradford for instance, maybe he shouldn't be a miss) and we still have some questions on the young guys, but I think they look good Wentz, Goff, Mariotta, Winston.

Anyway, there are the 27 QBs drafted in the top 10 since 2000 and by my very quick ranking, I show 12 misses or 44% miss/bust rate on top 10 picks and there are a few young guys that might not pan out, so I think in rough terms, we are probably looking at a 50/50 coin toss with top 10 QBs being a success or bust. This list is sorted by games started.

Also, since I used the Pro football reference search function, and dis so very quickly, I think if there were any top 10 QBs that haven't taken a snap in the NFL, they probably aren't in this list.

Hit Eli Manning
Hit Philip Rivers
Hit Carson Palmer
Hit Matt Ryan
Hit Alex Smith
Hit Matthew Stafford
Hit Michael Vick
Hit Cam Newton
Miss Sam Bradford
Miss David Carr
Hit Ryan Tannehill
Miss Joey Harrington
Miss Mark Sanchez
Hit Andrew Luck
Miss Blake Bortles
??? Byron Leftwich
Miss Vince Young
Miss Blaine Gabbert
Hit Jameis Winston
Miss Robert Griffin
Hit?? Marcus Mariota
Hit?? Carson Wentz
Miss JaMarcus Russell
Miss Jake Locker
Miss Matt Leinart
Hit?? Jared Goff
??? Mitch Trubisky

50% seems about right.

And not just for QBs, but across all positions.

Originally Posted by slim

50% seems about right.

And not just for QBs, but across all positions.

Personally, I think Winston blows. Marriota is also a question mark at this point.

Originally Posted by dogfish

john has missed twice on QBs, and neither of them was drafted with a premium pick. . .

come on, don't tell me you're counting the 7th rounders? i know two misses still sucks, but that's life in the NFL. . . we're probably going to have a premium pick next year in a QB-heavy draft, so he'll have a legit opportunity to find "the guy" if that's the route they want to go. . .

Of course they are going to think like this: "Hopefully we will never have another top 5 pick in the draft. We can't be sure that Paxton will ever develop. We don't think Trevor will ever be the guy and Brock isn't in our plans. If we don't draft a QB now, where will we be next year and in coming years?"

If they still think "we're a re-boot and not a rebuilding team." I don't see how you can say that about the team.

If there do there are a lot of FAs available:

"We have never seen an off-season FA QB class like this, where Drew Brees is scheduled to become a FA, Kirk Cousins is scheduled to become a FA, Jimmy Garapolo is scheduled to become a FA, Case Keenum is scheduled to be a FA, Sam Bradford is scheduled to become a FA, Teddy Bridgewater is scheduled to become a FA, Alex Smith and Eli Manning will be available in trade. That gives you an idea of the amount of QBs who are out there." -- Adam Schefter.

The problem with the Broncos hiring any of those QBs is that the rest of their team is not ready to win now, since they need about 9 or 10 new starters on offense and defense next year, including RT, RG, DT, RB(2), slot WR, #2 WR, CB, ILB(2), TE, and QB.

What is the point of signing a high priced FA and paying someone like Eli Manning $20M to QB this team to 9 wins or something? Maybe, of course. It could be worse.

A lot of those QBs will actually NOT be available. For instance, will the 49ers really give up a 2nd round pick for Garoppolo and then let him walk next season? No. Will Drew Brees leave NO if they win the NFC title, which they have as good a chance to do as anybody? NO. And especially not if they win the SB which could happen as they are 8-3. Eli could also stay in NY. What if they fire the coach and GM? Possible.

Originally Posted by slim

50% seems about right.

And not just for QBs, but across all positions.

Yep, and I bet it will drop off quite a bit outside top 10 picks.

Originally Posted by Cugel

Of course they are going to think like this: "Hopefully we will never have another top 5 pick in the draft. We can't be sure that Paxton will ever develop. We don't think Trevor will ever be the guy and Brock isn't in our plans. If we don't draft a QB now, where will we be next year and in coming years?"

If they still think "we're a re-boot and not a rebuilding team." I don't see how you can say that about the team.

If there do there are a lot of FAs available:

"We have never seen an off-season FA QB class like this, where Drew Brees is scheduled to become a FA, Kirk Cousins is scheduled to become a FA, Jimmy Garapolo is scheduled to become a FA, Case Keenum is scheduled to be a FA, Sam Bradford is scheduled to become a FA, Teddy Bridgewater is scheduled to become a FA, Alex Smith and Eli Manning will be available in trade. That gives you an idea of the amount of QBs who are out there." -- Adam Schefter.

The problem with the Broncos hiring any of those QBs is that the rest of their team is not ready to win now, since they need about 9 or 10 new starters on offense and defense next year, including RT, RG, DT, RB(2), slot WR, #2 WR, CB, ILB(2), TE, and QB.

What is the point of signing a high priced FA and paying someone like Eli Manning $20M to QB this team to 9 wins or something? Maybe, of course. It could be worse.

A lot of those QBs will actually NOT be available. For instance, will the 49ers really give up a 2nd round pick for Garoppolo and then let him walk next season? No. Will Drew Brees leave NO if they win the NFC title, which they have as good a chance to do as anybody? NO. And especially not if they win the SB which could happen as they are 8-3. Eli could also stay in NY. What if they fire the coach and GM? Possible.

Except the Broncos really dont know what they have in Chad Kelly and he might be the reason John goes the FA route.

If a Eli Manning comes in and Chad Kelly is the back up and groomed to take over in 3 years, what then?

Essentially Kelly will have 3 veteran hall of famers preparing him. John, Eli, and his uncle.

Why not that plan?

Will Indy go after a QB? Cleveland? SF? Giants?

There are a lot of teams with QB problems/questions that potentially could be drafting before the Broncos.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Except the Broncos really dont know what they have in Chad Kelly and he might be the reason John goes the FA route.

If a Eli Manning comes in and Chad Kelly is the back up and groomed to take over in 3 years, what then?

Essentially Kelly will have 3 veteran hall of famers preparing him. John, Eli, and his uncle.

Why not that plan?

I think I would rather be surprised by Kelly's talent and turn to him after he outplays his draft status and the other QBs on the team than think on him when planning what I do to get a QBotF.

Originally Posted by Rick

I think I would rather be surprised by Kelly's talent and turn to him after he outplays his draft status and the other QBs on the team than think on him when planning what I do to get a QBotF.

If they draft a QB in the first round, Chad Kelly is done here.

I would say TS and Oz are done here.

If they draft a guy high next year I would expect PL, rookie, Kelly and a good vet to compete.

The real competition would be Kelly vs PL to see who sticks. PL doesn't step out of the shadows he is the one gone and Kelly is third string and they try and move him to PS.

i can't see kelly being more than an afterthought in this process. . . 32 teams passed on him six or seven times-- if any evaluator thought he had a halfway legit chance, he would have been drafted much higher, injuries or no. . . i would be extremely surprised if elway was content with trying to capture late round lightning in a bottle again. . . unless we happen to land brees or cousins (unlikely), people need to get comfortable with the idea that we're probably taking a QB with our top pick next year. . . i'm sure they'll at least bring kelly in as a camp arm, and give him a chance to compete for the third spot on the roster-- he is NOT going to be Plan A, though. . . that scenario is not happening. . .

Originally Posted by dogfish

i can't see kelly being more than an afterthought in this process. . . 32 teams passed on him six or seven times-- if any evaluator thought he had a halfway legit chance, he would have been drafted much higher, injuries or no. . . i would be extremely surprised if elway was content with trying to capture late round lightning in a bottle again. . . unless we happen to land brees or cousins (unlikely), people need to get comfortable with the idea that we're probably taking a QB with our top pick next year. . . i'm sure they'll at least bring kelly in as a camp arm, and give him a chance to compete for the third spot on the roster-- he is NOT going to be Plan A, though. . . that scenario is not happening. . .

Well, the first round stuff is not working at all either. I know that is a fallacy, but right now they dont even have a veteran that could mentor a rookie. Which is usually what you want.

Besides, the projected first rounders are not impressive. Are they to you?

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Well, the first round stuff is not working at all either. I know that is a fallacy, but right now they dont even have a veteran that could mentor a rookie. Which is usually what you want.

Besides, the projected first rounders are not impressive. Are they to you?

i don't really watch much college ball. . .

i know QB picks bust all the time-- that's life. . . your odds of getting a star in the lower rounds are even worse, and it's extremely rare to find a legit stud in free agency. . . so what are you gonna do? you keep drafting until you find the guy, unless peyton manning falls in your lap. . . it's not like i enjoy it any more than anyone else, but you can only work with the options that are available. . . either we pay stupid money for mediocre kirk cousins, or we draft one of the top prospects. . . constantly trying to outsmart the league by developing a 7th rounder or UDFA at the most important position in the game is a fool's errand. . . extremely doubtful that JFE tries to go that route again. . .

Originally Posted by Rick

I would say TS and Oz are done here.

If they draft a guy high next year I would expect PL, rookie, Kelly and a good vet to compete.

The real competition would be Kelly vs PL to see who sticks. PL doesn't step out of the shadows he is the one gone and Kelly is third string and they try and move him to PS.

I know Siemian doesn't get much love, but the "good vet" here is the big factor. Right now, Siemian is the best QB on the Broncos roster. Not in terms of potential, but in terms of performance on the field. If they bring in a vet, it's going to have to be someone that will be an upgrade over him. Someone who can start and win, not a vet that's on his third or fourth team and struggles whenever in the starting role. There would be no upside in making that change.

Losing Lynch will be a big cap hit and I'm sure they wanted to see these six games to see if they thought he had any future, or they just need to cut their losses.

Originally Posted by Tned

I know Siemian doesn't get much love, but the "good vet" here is the big factor. Right now, Siemian is the best QB on the Broncos roster. Not in terms of potential, but in terms of performance on the field. If they bring in a vet, it's going to have to be someone that will be an upgrade over him. Someone who can start and win, not a vet that's on his third or fourth team and struggles whenever in the starting role. There would be no upside in making that change.

Losing Lynch will be a big cap hit and I'm sure they wanted to see these six games to see if they thought he had any future, or they just need to cut their losses.

Exactly, I still feel very strongly that regardless of what happens in the draft, Bradford will be here.

Thinking about the situation, I am thinking the best situation would be to get Eli and keep Kelly. Have Kelly work with them and groom the kid. Get 3 seasons out of Eli, put an OL together and see what happens.

I think that scenario would allow Elway to draft a top notch ILB that this team needs.

The scenario of drafting another first round QB bust would too much to take.*

That is more likely to happen if they draft yet another QB in the first round.