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Thread: The Way Forward For Next Year!

  1. #1

    Default The Way Forward For Next Year!

    After the Broncos have been semi-officially eliminated (based on their 3-6 record they have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs according to statisticians) it's worth spending a moment to reflect on the future and the way forward. Obviously Elway will evaluate everything to decide who to keep and who to fire, hopefully including the coaching staff.

    My take is by no means the only possibility, but here goes:

    In retrospect, Elway and VJ simply misjudged their team.

    After the 2015 SB the Broncos lost Peyton Manning, their only penetrating DL Malik Jackson, the only ILB on the roster who could cover TEs and RBs over the middle in Danny Trevathan. In 2016 Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware was ineffective due to injury and then he retired. This off-season they cut TJ Ward. This is no longer remotely the same defense. They are still good, but have serious deficiencies compared to the 2015 defense. That's what happens to great defenses. They retire, become FAs or are traded and the guys who take their place are just not as good.

    Offensively in 2013 the Broncos had Peyton Manning, TE Julius Thomas, slot WR Wes Welker and Knowshon Moreno caught over 60 passes out of the backfield. None of them are on the roster, and their replacements are pretty much useless. The TEs caught only a couple of passes last game combined.

    So, the talent level on this team declined precipitously since 2015, but Elway and VJ kept insisting that they were just one or two players (usually OL) away from competing for a SB. We all believed the hype, but it was just hype. Normally, after you lose your HOF QB you SUCK for years. I was always afraid of this during the Manning years, because I remembered what happened after Elway retired. Shanny basically went 8-8 the rest of his career and won 1 playoff game in 10 seasons.

    I thought this could happen again - especially if they couldn't find a real Franchise QB. But, there was all this insistence that you can build a team around great defense, and not spend any money on QBs, (or the offense in general outside Sanders & DT), then go to another SB.

    Well that was never realistic at all. Nobody outside Denver could ever understand why the Broncos kept insisting that Trevor was a viable franchise QB. But, that's water under the dam.

    Now there is no choice:

    They have to do what every 6-10 or worse losing team does: REBUILD with a rookie Franchise QB hopefully drafted in the top 10 because those QBs have really the only substantial rate of success. By no means all top 10 first round QBs succeed, but those top guys have the BEST CHANCE of being good.

    And as we saw with Paxton, trying to get a bargain late in the first round, or the second round with Brock, or the 7th with Trevor, is just not likely to work and it didn't.

    The Broncos wasted 2 years with QB experiments that didn't work out. Now they will have to do what in retrospect they should have done in 2016. Rebuild with younger players.

  2. #2

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    This part's controversial, and you may have your own views, but here's mine:

    Since the Broncos will be starting a rookie QB next year, not to mention that the team is 5-11 or something, they are not competing for any SBs in 2018, and probably not 2019 either, although Ben Roethlisberger won the SB in his 2nd year I believe. So, it could happen. But, the team is not going from 5-11 to SB Champion with a rookie QB and not a lot of new talent.

    Because the next point: If you are rebuilding with a rookie QB, there's no point going out in FA and getting high priced veterans to compete now. You aren't going to compete now for a Championship anyway. So, there's no point doing next year in FA what they tried to do this year - sign a high priced FA like Calais Campbell, whom they offered $13 M/year only to see Jacksonville offer him $15M. He's had 6 sacks so far this season and is a beast in the middle.

    But, the Broncos are going to be dumping salary. The two guys they really need to dump, they can't.

    D.T.
    Demaryius Thomas signed a 5 year, $70,000,000 contract with the Denver Broncos, including a $11,000,000 signing bonus, $43,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $14,000,000. In 2017, Thomas will earn a base salary of $8,500,000 and a signing bonus of $4,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $12,033,333 and a dead cap value of $19,099,999.
    The cap hit to cut or trade him in 2018 would be $15,665,000 so he stays.

    Sanders dead cap hit would be $5.3 M and he's their best WR so he stays.

    Talib on the other hand will cost $12M next year, and the dead cap hit for releasing him is only $1M so he's probably gone. They could trade him but no team will give high draft picks, if they have to absorb a huge salary too. They will probably wait for the Broncos to cut him so the Broncos won't get much.

    They can advance Chris Harris into Talib's spot, while promoting Roby to Harris' spot. They need to draft another CB at some point, and they can try and advance Lorenzo Doss or Brenden Langley into the nickel back slot.

    Darian Stewart's dead cap hit is $7.4 M so he probably stays too. They have plenty of help behind him though.

    The Broncos need a penetrating pass-rusher DE/DT but will have to find one in the draft rather than FA, because they are hideously expensive if any good - like Calais Campbell getting $15M a year.

    They probably won't find an immediate impact player in the draft but will have to develop one, like they did Malik Jackson, who was a 5th rounder -- it took him 3 years before he became the dominating player he became. Gotsis is a nice run defender but can't rush the passer.

    They need ILBs to replace Marshall but, his dead cap hit is $6M so they might have to keep him too. Todd Davis is a cap casualty but he's cheap so he might stay.

    Again they will probably have to find an ILB in the 2nd or later rounds of the draft, because they will not be big players in FA in a rebuilding year and FAs won't want to come here anyway if the Broncos aren't competitive with a rookie QB.

  3. #3
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    I’ve typed shorter emails asking for a couple hundred grand.

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  5. #4

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    On offense they need to replace whoever they can:

    QB: Obviously with a top 10 pick they will try and draft an elite QB prospect. Unless of course either Brock or Paxton suddenly starts channeling the ghost of Johnny Unitas. So, no.

    They can keep Trevor as the backup since he's the best QB on this rotten roster of stiffs. They might keep either Paxton or Chad Kelly as the #3 backup, and Osweiler is a FA who will be gone.

    They need a slot WR but they have DeAngelo Henderson who was their most impressive offensive threat during the pre-season only to disappear during the regular season. He hasn't even dressed. So, they can insert him and develop him along with the rookie.

    They need a TE who can catch, but they have Jake Butt coming back next year so he can learn on the job too.

    They need a RT of course, but will have to draft one, probably in the second round. Any FA RT will be about as costly as Watson, without being any better.
    Riley Reiff signed a 5 year, $58,750,000 contract with the Minnesota Vikings, including a $11,000,000 signing bonus, $26,300,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $11,750,000. In 2017, Reiff will earn a base salary of $6,200,000, a signing bonus of $11,000,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,500,000 and a dead cap value of $26,400,000.
    As you can see, to get a really good premium RT you have to pay. A LOT. They will have to draft a rookie and develop him. Or try another $6M guy like Watson and hope they get someone who isn't totally horrible. But, most likely they draft a rookie RT in the second or 3rd round.

    This offense is not going to be a ton better than this season's with a rookie QB, but they might as well develop together.

    There is just no point trying to pretend that you don't have to start over from virtually scratch and totally rebuild. Including the coaching staff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeefStew25 View Post
    I’ve typed shorter emails asking for a couple hundred grand.
    Did you get the money?
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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  8. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Did you get the money?
    Yes. Let’s date.

  9. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeefStew25 View Post
    Yes. Let’s date.
    **** yeah, Dave will bring the hookers and blow.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

  10. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    **** yeah, Dave will bring the hookers and blow.
    I think he was thinking just the two of you...

  11. #9
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    All that reading to rehash the same thing said in 10 other threads and to just say "Denver needs to Draft a QB."

    Jesus.
    "I may not be a mathematician, but I can count to a million." - Shannon Sharpe

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  13. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shazam! View Post
    All that reading to rehash the same thing said in 10 other threads and to just say "Denver needs to Draft a QB."

    Jesus.
    They also need a RT, RG (moving Leary back to LG where he is best), ILB, a CB (to replace Talib), RB, punter, a slot WR.

  14. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike View Post
    They also need a RT, RG (moving Leary back to LG where he is best), ILB, a CB (to replace Talib), RB, punter, a slot WR.
    They need a true COVERAGE LBer, like Danny T.

    RT they will need to draft, RG might be able to find in FA.

    CB draft. Would be nice if Langley could fit into that role being that we took him in the third...but not counting on that. Was a reach.

    I suspect Booker will be the bell cow next year, CJ will probably not be retained unless they can get him on the cheap. Doubtful, he will probably head to Miami. Henderson "should" get more reps and I would assume they take another RB round 4 or later.

    Slot guy...YES. They need a slot guy and they need a pass catching TE. Butt?

    Ideally they put Lynch out there and he shows enough growth that they can use the first round pick on a tackle.

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  16. #12
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    John Brown for Slot WR/PR 2018.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

  17. #13

    Default

    From John Elway's interview with Dave Logan, Broncos KOA announcer:

    1. Paxton will be on the roster next year.

    2. Elway is not trotting Paxton out there this year if he's not ready.

    Since nobody thinks he's going to be ready this season Logan doesn't think we'll see Paxton this season. They will play it out with Brock, and/or Trevor.

    This sounds like another "QB competition" next season.

    REMEMBER: My take is like everybody else. The Broncos need to just accept that Paxton is worthless and move on. But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

    So, it looks like even if they draft a QB we will see a lot more of Paxton next season.

  18. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cugel View Post
    From John Elway's interview with Dave Logan, Broncos KOA announcer:

    1. Paxton will be on the roster next year.

    2. Elway is not trotting Paxton out there this year if he's not ready.

    Since nobody thinks he's going to be ready this season Logan doesn't think we'll see Paxton this season. They will play it out with Brock, and/or Trevor.

    This sounds like another "QB competition" next season.

    REMEMBER: My take is like everybody else. The Broncos need to just accept that Paxton is worthless and move on. But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

    So, it looks like even if they draft a QB we will see a lot more of Paxton next season.
    The guy is in his second year and has very few live reps. He was tabbed as a 3 year project from the get-go. So, why should they jettison him? Because he's not AHEAD of expectations?

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  20. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick View Post
    They need a true COVERAGE LBer, like Danny T.

    RT they will need to draft, RG might be able to find in FA.

    CB draft. Would be nice if Langley could fit into that role being that we took him in the third...but not counting on that. Was a reach.

    I suspect Booker will be the bell cow next year, CJ will probably not be retained unless they can get him on the cheap. Doubtful, he will probably head to Miami. Henderson "should" get more reps and I would assume they take another RB round 4 or later.

    Slot guy...YES. They need a slot guy and they need a pass catching TE. Butt?

    Ideally they put Lynch out there and he shows enough growth that they can use the first round pick on a tackle.
    Carlos Henderson looks like a capable slot WR. Apparently he's not going to get on the field this year.

    RT - They could draft a RT of course. But they might try and find a "bargain basement" RT like Menelik Watson, whose team has given up on him.
    3/10/2017: Signed a three-year, $18.375 million contract. The deal contains $5.5 million guaranteed -- a $4 million signing bonus and Watson's 2017 base salary. Watson is eligible for annual $500,000 roster bonuses and $125,000 workout bonuses. 2017: $1.5 million, 2018: $5.5 million, 2019: $5.5 million (Club Option), 2020: Free Agent
    Watson cost them $6M for 1/2 a season. They would have been better off paying $12M to Reilly Reiff and getting an actually GOOD RT, but there you go.

    It's hard to imagine them keeping Watson or Donald Stephenson, but they kept Stephenson this season when not one fan wanted to see him back on the roster.

    Elway and company have been making some really strange personnel decisions and virtually none of them have worked out. So, you'd have to say they were bad decisions.

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