Thread: If this offense becomes average, and can score around points per game.

Right now the Broncos are averaging 18 points per game. Yes, that outlier 42 against the Cowboys actually makes that number better than it actually is. It is more like 15 points per game. I guess we have to count that 42, but that is clearly NOT indicative of what this offense behind Siemian ACTUALLY was.

The offense and STs has also given up at least one TD over the last 3 games.

The point is IF this offense could rise to AVERAGE, which 21 points per game is about average, they have a chance to turn the season around. Not sure how good that would be, considering the land of 8-8 or 7-9, is really no mans land.

It will at the very least give us a clearer indication that this team is not as far from putting it together as it seems. Just to reiterate, I would personally rather have a middle of the road QB that can generate 21-24 points per game WITH an ELITE DEFENSE, rather than some high priced over valued QB who makes it impossible to put together a solid team (dynamic defense.)

I know we would all be excited for instance if the Broncos landed Luck or Cousins. Not sure they are worth the dollars. Even now, with the shit we have seen out of Siemian.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Right now the Broncos are averaging 18 points per game. Yes, that outlier 42 against the Cowboys actually makes that number better than it actually is. It is more like 15 points per game. I guess we have to count that 42, but that is clearly NOT indicative of what this offense behind Siemian ACTUALLY was.

The offense and STs has also given up at least one TD over the last 3 games.

The point is IF this offense could rise to AVERAGE, which 21 points per game is about average, they have a chance to turn the season around. Not sure how good that would be, considering the land of 8-8 or 7-9, is really no mans land.

It will at the very least give us a clearer indication that this team is not as far from putting it together as it seems. Just to reiterate, I would personally rather have a middle of the road QB that can generate 21-24 points per game WITH an ELITE DEFENSE, rather than some high priced over valued QB who makes it impossible to put together a solid team (dynamic defense.)

I know we would all be excited for instance if the Broncos landed Luck or Cousins. Not sure they are worth the dollars. Even now, with the shit we have seen out of Siemian.

I always wonder why people say we can't afford an expensive QB and an elite defense. We paid Manning 19 million the Super Bowl year (Yes, ~5 mill of that was incentives), and we were paying this defense that type of money. More actually since Demarcus and TJ are now gone.

Also, if we had an elite QB would we still need to have 25 million/yr wrapped up in two receivers? We have the 5th and 11th highest paid WRs in the league on our team. Can a rookie WR come in and do admirably? Of course, we see it almost every year. So there's, say 7 million, in savings there.

Granted, paying a QB 25/yr makes it more difficult to build a team around them, but we managed to fit Peyton's contract with the elite D we have, there's no reason we can't do it again if John and the rest of the FO can do a good job of managing dead money, etc.

Originally Posted by Davii

I always wonder why people say we can't afford an expensive QB and an elite defense. We paid Manning 19 million the Super Bowl year (Yes, ~5 mill of that was incentives), and we were paying this defense that type of money. More actually since Demarcus and TJ are now gone.

Also, if we had an elite QB would we still need to have 25 million/yr wrapped up in two receivers? We have the 5th and 11th highest paid WRs in the league on our team. Can a rookie WR come in and do admirably? Of course, we see it almost every year. So there's, say 7 million, in savings there.

Granted, paying a QB 25/yr makes it more difficult to build a team around them, but we managed to fit Peyton's contract with the elite D we have, there's no reason we can't do it again if John and the rest of the FO can do a good job of managing dead money, etc.

We didn't have Von's monster contract and Manning at the same time. I'm not saying it can't be done, but 2015 might not be the best comparison.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

We didn't have Von's monster contract and Manning at the same time. I'm not saying it can't be done, but 2015 might not be the best comparison.

The thing about that team and Why that in itself is an outlier is the fact that the offense was horrific. We really have not seen an offense here that is at least average since the FIRST HALF of the 2014 season.

Also, it is the notion of OVER VALUE. You are exactly right about Miller and the Broncos FO had to make a decision about Miller. They got allowed Malik Jackson and Trevathan go in order to pay Miller. The run defense took a hit as a result.

Personally, I think in this hard cap era, WR could be the most overvalued position on the team. Look at all of the best, most productive WRs in the league over the last 20 years or so with no rings.

T Owens
Randy Moss
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Odell Beckham

There is a pretty big list. Case in point with DT. In SB 48, DT actually broke Jerry Rices SB record for receptions. In SB 50, he had 1 catch for 8 yards.

IF this offense is able to AVERAGE 21 points per game (Which is average) let's see what happens.

Honestly, if the end result is 8-8, I'd rather see us lose out... If you aren't going to make the playoffs, get the high draft pick and fix this team.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

Honestly, if the end result is 8-8, I'd rather see us lose out... If you aren't going to make the playoffs, get the high draft pick and fix this team.

Tend to agree. Although, let's face it. What does a top 10 pick guarantee? Makes it fun to watch the draft, but guarantees very little.

Look at the teams that are drafting in the top 5 basically every year.

Jax
Cleveland

Etc

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Tend to agree. Although, let's face it. What does a top 10 pick guarantee? Makes it fun to watch the draft, but guarantees very little.

Look at the teams that are drafting in the top 5 basically every year.

Jax
Cleveland

Etc

And look what Jacksonville has started to do with those picks, that defense is one of the best I've seen awhile. The Browns are and will always be the browns, the jags are a QB away from the superbowl.

Originally Posted by Broncoknight30

Right now the Broncos are averaging 18 points per game. Yes, that outlier 42 against the Cowboys actually makes that number better than it actually is. It is more like 15 points per game. I guess we have to count that 42, but that is clearly NOT indicative of what this offense behind Siemian ACTUALLY was.

The offense and STs has also given up at least one TD over the last 3 games.

The point is IF this offense could rise to AVERAGE, which 21 points per game is about average, they have a chance to turn the season around. Not sure how good that would be, considering the land of 8-8 or 7-9, is really no mans land.

It will at the very least give us a clearer indication that this team is not as far from putting it together as it seems. Just to reiterate, I would personally rather have a middle of the road QB that can generate 21-24 points per game WITH an ELITE DEFENSE, rather than some high priced over valued QB who makes it impossible to put together a solid team (dynamic defense.)

I know we would all be excited for instance if the Broncos landed Luck or Cousins. Not sure they are worth the dollars. Even now, with the shit we have seen out of Siemian.

Oh, God. Neither Cousins nor Luck is coming here. Neither is going to be a FA, so it's pointless to speculate about them.

Here is the reality. Elway's model is the Seahawks model that they used to win the 2013 SB.

Elway saw that Seahawks team demolish his high-flying Peyton Manning record setting offense and decided "I want that team!": Have an elite defense and an efficient capable offense that can move the ball effectively and avoid turnovers. Take full advantage of any short fields generated by defensive turnovers by running the ball effectively with Marshawn Lynch.

It worked in 2015. But it is a very hard model to emulate. You need a really good QB like Russell Wilson, who is not an elite QB like Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers or Peyton Manning, but makes good decisions and can make key plays for his offense.

But, like 31 other teams, Elway passed on Wilson in the draft twice. He preferred Giraffe #1. Then when Brock left town he drafted Paxton. The problem emerged.

This is an elite QB driven league, but there are not enough really good QBs to go around. About 1/2 the QBs drafted in the first round prove busts like Paxton, most all of the QBs taken after the mid second round are busts, and as for 3rd round or later QBs they succeed so rarely in doing ANYTHING at all that we can count the success stories on our fingers: Kurt Warner undrafted, Tom Brady 6th round, Russell Wilson 3rd round. Can't really think of any others.

Elway has not succeeded in finding a QB who is even adequate, average or "doesn't totally suck." Hence he wasted an elite SB winning defense for the last 2 years.

That is neither surprising nor unique. The '86 Bears still had Mike Singletary and Dan Hampton and Richard Dent - three Hall of Famers, as well as Walter Peyton, HOF running back. FIVE Hall of Famers on one team (including Ditka).

But the 49ers had Joe Montana, and the Giants had Phil Simms, while the Bears had QB Jim McMahon and they never got back to the SB again. It just doesn't work multiple times for any one team: the 2001 Ravens and the 2003 Bucs and the 2016 Broncos are further examples of defending SB champions who won with elite SB winning defenses, who never repeated.

It is unfortunately but not surprising that Elway hasn't been able to find a Franchise QB. It's really hard and most teams haven't got one - often after years and years of effort (how long has Buffalo been looking for a replacement for Jim Kelly?)

Elway knows this vividly, since he was a HOF QB himself. He, like everybody else knows that Tom Brady is about 90% of the reason the Patriots have won 6 SBs and he would like a QB like that.

But, he knows Andrew Lucks don't fall off the apple cart at your feet very often. He was lucky to get Peyton in a fluke.

So, he just has to go to Brock, and then Paxton, and when those stiffs flame out, go back to the draft in 2018 and try again. I don't feel like he "failed" or is "stupid" or something. Lots of experts (including Jerry Jones and the Cowboys staff) wanted Paxton Lynch over Dak Prescott, it's just that Dak Prescott turned out to be better, despite the fact that every team passed on him 3 times and most 4 times. The draft is not science. It's more like probability and statistics. You can make the odds favor you, but you can still crap out, or get absurdly lucky like the Patriots with Brady.

What the Broncos are hoping for is really an adequate QB who doesn't turn the ball over and gives the defense a chance to make plays and generate turnovers. That can work. It can get you in the playoffs. There's very little evidence you can consistently win SBs that way however. 2015 is deceptive in that regard.

The reason teams pay their QBs so much is that it is a lot easier to keep 1 QB under contract than 11 defensive stars all of whom can get more money going elsewhere.

The Broncos SB defense immediately disintegrated when they lost DeMarcus Ware to degenerative back injury, and Danny Trevathan and DE Malik Jackson to FA. Today they are good, but that magical 2016 team defense doesn't exist in the league this year - or most years for that matter. It happens on average about 1 time every decade and not to the same team twice.

Every other year?


Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner

Mostly Hall of Fame or border-line HOF. Exceptions: Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson for those elite SB wining defenses. And Joe Flacco who had that one great season, and hasn't done much since.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

Honestly, if the end result is 8-8, I'd rather see us lose out... If you aren't going to make the playoffs, get the high draft pick and fix this team.

I agree as a fan but the veteran players especially guys like Harris, Talib and Wolfe don't feel that way.

Drafting a QB in the top 15 does not guarantee success, but drafting a QB in the mid-second round or later almost always guarantees failure. QB is over drafted. Most guys who are any good get taken early. Those who are left in the late second round are usually da suck.

Occasionally you get lucky: like the Seahawks with Russell Wilson or the Cowboys with Dak Prescott.

Originally Posted by Cugel

What the Broncos are hoping for is really an adequate QB who doesn't turn the ball over and gives the defense a chance to make plays and generate turnovers. That can work. It can get you in the playoffs. There's very little evidence you can consistently win SBs that way however. 2015 is deceptive in that regard.

The reason teams pay their QBs so much is that it is a lot easier to keep 1 QB under contract than 11 defensive stars all of whom can get more money going elsewhere.

The Broncos SB defense immediately disintegrated when they lost DeMarcus Ware to degenerative back injury, and Danny Trevathan and DE Malik Jackson to FA. Today they are good, but that magical 2016 team defense doesn't exist in the league this year - or most years for that matter. It happens on average about 1 time every decade and not to the same team twice.

Every other year?


Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner

Mostly Hall of Fame or border-line HOF. Exceptions: Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson for those elite SB wining defenses. And Joe Flacco who had that one great season, and hasn't done much since.

Can you find out what the defenses were ranked in those years?

I think I would add Eli Manning to that list of Dilfer and Johnson. I think in 2007 he was the 25th ranked QB.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

We didn't have Von's monster contract and Manning at the same time. I'm not saying it can't be done, but 2015 might not be the best comparison.

Monster contract, no. However, we had him on the transition tag salary that year as we exercised his option. He received a little north of 10 million IIRC.

Originally Posted by Davii

Monster contract, no. However, we had him on the transition tag salary that year as we exercised his option. He received a little north of 10 million IIRC.

I think in relation to non QBs contracts, it is pretty high.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/15/news...act/index.html


Von Miller is now the highest paid defensive player in NFL history