Thread: Taking Stock of the Schedule at the Bye

Plenty of other posters do weekly breakdowns of stats, and where we stack up with the league statistically and differing versions of power rankings.

Our bye is early this year, but every year I take a look at the bye and see how the rest of our schedule appears to shape up. We usually know enough about the team and the NFL in general to make some pretty solid projections about the rest of the season. This year it's a little on the early side, but here's how I see the rest of the schedule:

Giants - Win

At Chargers- Win, a tough divisional game, but we should be able to win there. .. .it will be a home game in practice.

At Chiefs - Loss. Not much to say, the Chiefs are damn good, and at home.

At Eagles - Loss. This one is really a toss-up for me at this point. I think we could win it, but East Coast/Early game, on the road etc.

Patriots - Win. At home we own these guys, and they have the worst defense in the league.

Bengals - Win.

At Raiders - Loss. Split the series, I'll take it.

At Dolphins - Win. Cutler ain't doing Jack against the No-Fly zone.

Jets - W. I. N. Win

At Colts - Win.

At Redskins - Loss. Another toss-up. We are more talented, but they're at home.

Chiefs - Win. Mile High's got to bring some magic for a week 17 showdown.

Predicted record: 11 - 5


What do the rest of you think?

The Chargers to Raiders stretch is really tough. I still think 8-8 or 9-7 unless they can steal two or three in that stretch. If they can do that, 10-6, 11-5 is not out of the realm.

I still think we can win out.

Nevermind that I predicted 6 wins before the season started...

Originally Posted by wayninja

I still think we can win out.

Nevermind that I predicted 6 wins before the season started...

I think we can as long as our offense is consistent in the 2nd half. It can't become lifeless as it has in recent weeks

The Chiefs and Patriots are the only teams that really worry me. I think the Broncos are better than the rest. 10-12 wins might be on the optimistic side of realistic expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team go 7-9 though, especially if injuries occur.

I'll stick with my 11-5 prediction, swapping the Bills/Raiders W/L.

Originally Posted by Tned

Injuries on defense has me worried, assuming Wolf, Crick and Walker aren't long term injuries, then I think something like this:

W - Week 1 - vs Chargers MNF late game
W - Week 2 - vs Cowboys
W - Week 3 - at Bills (11:00 MT)
L - Week 4 - vs Raiders
Week 5 - Bye
W - Week 6 - vs Giants SNF
L - Week 7 - at Chargers
L - Week 8 - at Chiefs MNF
W - Week 9 - at Eagles (11:00 MT)
W - Week 10 - vs Patriots SNF
W - Week 11 -vs Bengals
L - Week 12 - at Raiders
W - Week 13 - at Dolphins (11:00 MT)
W - Week 14 - vs Jets
L - Week 15 - at Colts TNF
W - Week 16 - at Redskins (11:00 MT)
W - Week 17 - vs Chiefs

11-5, but could easily swing anywhere from 9-7 to 12-4. I put the likelihood of worse than 9 wins or better than 12 as pretty unlikely. So, I'l call the 9-12 win range as 80% confidence and more like 65% confidence level in the 11 wins.

Originally Posted by CrazyHorse

The Chiefs and Patriots are the only teams that really worry me. I think the Broncos are better than the rest. 10-12 wins might be on the optimistic side of realistic expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team go 7-9 though, especially if injuries occur.

Really think the team could go 4-8 from here on out?

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

Plenty of other posters do weekly breakdowns of stats, and where we stack up with the league statistically and differing versions of power rankings.

Our bye is early this year, but every year I take a look at the bye and see how the rest of our schedule appears to shape up. We usually know enough about the team and the NFL in general to make some pretty solid projections about the rest of the season. This year it's a little on the early side, but here's how I see the rest of the schedule:

Giants - Win

At Chargers- Win, a tough divisional game, but we should be able to win there. .. .it will be a home game in practice.

At Chiefs - Loss. Not much to say, the Chiefs are damn good, and at home.

At Eagles - Loss. This one is really a toss-up for me at this point. I think we could win it, but East Coast/Early game, on the road etc.

Patriots - Win. At home we own these guys, and they have the worst defense in the league.

Bengals - Win.

At Raiders - Loss. Split the series, I'll take it.

At Dolphins - Win. Cutler ain't doing Jack against the No-Fly zone.

Jets - W. I. N. Win

At Colts - Win.

At Redskins - Loss. Another toss-up. We are more talented, but they're at home.

Chiefs - Win. Mile High's got to bring some magic for a week 17 showdown.

Predicted record: 11 - 5


What do the rest of you think?

I think we beat Philly or the Skins, maybe both. I think the Faid are seriously over-rated, esp. if Carr is battling a back injury through the season. We get them for the sweep. Then we'll lose a head-scratcher to a chump team, and finish 12-4

I'm not much for predictions but I do know one thing. In our 3 wins, we played shit defenses. The first time our offense saw a good defense, we lost. By that standard, I think the Chiefs, Giants (because they're desperate), Redskins, and Eagles will definitely give us problems. I'm sure we'll drop a token game to another team we should beat, like Cincy or the Jets.

With our current offense, 10-6 is our peak and with our defense, I think 7-9 is our floor.

BRONCOS aren't going to do very well by not scoring touchdowns. If they can figure out the offense (no one expects the Dallas game every week), then I can see a 10-11 win season sneaking into wildcard. If they can't figure out the offense, I can see a 6-7 win season. I get we're in the same scenario as 2015 with a questionable offense, and damn good defense, but I don't think it'll happen like that again.

KC is the only team that is clearly better than us IMO. We match up poorly with the Patriots because we're not designed to exploit their weak defense - you hope home field is enough to tip the scales there.

My main concern is that IF we manage to lose the NYG game it's not out of the realm of possibility that we go 1-4 over the next five games and then the season starts to look a lot different. I would be happy with 3-3 over our next 6 games, which puts us at 7-4 heading into a softer part of our schedule.

I feel like there is a pretty wide range of outcomes for this team. It wouldn't shock me if we ended up at 11-5 or 8-8. But I think 9-7 or 10-6 feels more realistic.

This is a 14-2 team that constantly reverts to playing like an 8-8 team. Nearly every game you think 'they should be winning this game by 3 or 4 scores.' But they keep finding ways to step on their own feet. It's truly a strong team, much stronger than I would have guessed even with the O-line pass blocking issues. This team really will go where Trevor takes them, and that accounts for the degree of difficulty posed by the offensive line he's been given. He has to do all of these: stay healthy and upright, find the open guys and stand tall, escape pressure or throw it away, and not throw picks. A lot to ask any QB but that's big boy NFL QB play and we need it if we want to win championships.

Originally Posted by NightTrainLayne

Plenty of other posters do weekly breakdowns of stats, and where we stack up with the league statistically and differing versions of power rankings.

Our bye is early this year, but every year I take a look at the bye and see how the rest of our schedule appears to shape up. We usually know enough about the team and the NFL in general to make some pretty solid projections about the rest of the season. This year it's a little on the early side, but here's how I see the rest of the schedule:

Giants - Win

At Chargers- Win, a tough divisional game, but we should be able to win there. .. .it will be a home game in practice.

At Chiefs - Loss. Not much to say, the Chiefs are damn good, and at home.

At Eagles - Loss. This one is really a toss-up for me at this point. I think we could win it, but East Coast/Early game, on the road etc.

Patriots - Win. At home we own these guys, and they have the worst defense in the league.

Bengals - Win.

At Raiders - Loss. Split the series, I'll take it.

At Dolphins - Win. Cutler ain't doing Jack against the No-Fly zone.

Jets - W. I. N. Win

At Colts - Win.

At Redskins - Loss. Another toss-up. We are more talented, but they're at home.

Chiefs - Win. Mile High's got to bring some magic for a week 17 showdown.

Predicted record: 11 - 5


What do the rest of you think?

I think you give the chiefs too much credit. They are beatable. They beat the patriots, which seems impressive until you realize that the patriots defense is the third worst defense through 4 games of the last 10 years (that means of the 32 team every year for the last 10 years, only two other teams have been worse on defense statistically than the pats) The chiefs are 4-0, but they are just narrowly escaping by the skin of their teeth with a win.

They are overhyped and overrated. Their offense revolves around hunt and we will shut him down. Their defense is highly suspect.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

I think you give the chiefs too much credit. They are beatable. They beat the patriots, which seems impressive until you realize that the patriots defense is the third worst defense through 4 games of the last 10 years (that means of the 32 team every year for the last 10 years, only two other teams have been worse on defense statistically than the pats) The chiefs are 4-0, but they are just narrowly escaping by the skin of their teeth with a win.

They are overhyped and overrated. Their offense revolves around hunt and we will shut him down. Their defense is highly suspect.

I couldn't possibly disagree with you any more. They are a veteran group with an innovative coach, a QB who minimizes mistakes, speed at RB and WR, a weapon for a TE - and one of the league's best pass rushers. Their DBs are solid. About the only thing working against them is that Berry is out for the year. They were underrated last year and they were underrated coming into the season. They can win on the road and have one of the best home field advantages...

They are absolutely beatable - not like some of the juggernaut #1 teams in years past... But they are also the most complete team in the NFL if you ask me. I'd be willing to bet they finish as a #1 or #2 seed, and then good luck beating them in Arrowhead in January.

I hate the Chiefs - but they have my respect.

It's so hard to predict how any given team will be doing in a month or two, so this exercise is probably futile (though I can't say I haven't thought about it myself).

Mo is right - the stretch from the Chargers through Patriots is tough, and will probably define our season. The Chiefs game looks like a big time L, though I would love to see us surprise them.

I also agree with Buff here - I'd take 4-3 over these next seven games (up through the Raiders road game, I believe) and see where we stand at that point. There are some very winnable games in the back half of this schedule, provided nothing major happens before then (and it often does). I was counting on a win at Washington, for example, but they have impressed me a lot in the last couple of weeks - that won't be an easy game.

I think we're in the mix for a playoff spot if we can survive that middle of the schedule.