Thread: Breaking down Siemian's performance in the third preseason game

After seeing what I thought was a surprise in PFF giving Siemian a 75.2 grade, since like most, I felt it was a pretty rough start, especially the first couple drives, I decided to take a deeper dive into Siemian's performance on Saturday against GB.

To put the PFF grade of 75.1 in perspective, I looked at PFF ratings for the two games from 2016 that most consider Siemian's best games, Cincy and the first KC game, and his grades were 69.5 and 81.8. So, as you can see, the 75.1 is a good grade.

Tyler Polumbus said Siemian played good, efficient and had one bad throw, the INT, which he said the offensive line would take the blame for due to allowing pressure in Siemian's face. He said, Siemian will also take blame, because you have to protect the ball, but he said the line has to do better and they know it.

QB TREVOR SIEMIAN, 75.2 OVERALL GRADE
Siemian had an efficient game overall, finishing with a grade of 75.2. However, he struggled while under pressure, completing only 3 of 8 passes for 9 yards while also throwing an interception. Siemian and his receiving corps will hope to be in better sync Week 1 of the regular season, as they dropped four of his passes on the evening.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/new...bay-packers-17

So, in order to better understand, I went back and reviewed each passing play and made notes for each.

To summarize what I found:

Pass plays with pressure and/or QB hits: 11 of 24 passing plays.

Bad Throws: 5 with 2 being really bad (INT and second Sanders overthrow)
Inclused in the "bad throws" above are "just missed" throws, which is a slight overlead of Sanders on drag route and throwing a bit/low behind of Green on short pass over the middle. Both hit receivers hands, but better throws would have been completions.

Here's a detailed breakdown of each passing play, with whether there was pressure and what the result was based on my eyes and hitting rewind multiple times on each play. Unfortunately there is no all-22 film in preseason, so on some of these I would love to have seen some of the high angles.

1st Drive:
2 10 -- delayed blitz, completion to CJ 4.
3 6 -- Good pocket, completion to DT for first down.
1 10 -- Max Garcia knocked on to his butt, Charles makes good play to cut rusher, but Siemian still hit while throwing and short hops Sanders
3 3 -- Quick hitter thrown to Charles outside shoulder, which was clearly a designed play for Charles to turn out on, which is evidence by Studesville spending several minutes going through pictures with Charles right after the play. As mentioned, DT eventually came open 10 yards past the sticks and Sanders was running a shallow cross at the first down markers, but the ball was released almost immediately, making it very obvious that this was intended to be Charles all along on a short out and Charles wasn't on the same page. Maybe Siemian should changed the play or held the ball and seen if something else developed (such as the DT/Sanders routes that we saw open up after the throw), rather than throwing the quick hit type pass.


2nd drive
1 10 -- Pass rusher comes in untouched between LT and LG. Throw was about 10' over Sanders head and out of bounds. Was that highly innacurate rushed throw or throw away to avoid sack? Could have been either. Looked like throw away, but hard to know.
2 10 -- Pass rusher bull rushes Paradis and gets buy him. Bad throw. Because rusher was coming through at his lower leg, he didn't follow through on the throw, which might have effected his accuracy, but if you make the throw (vs. holding and taking the sack), you can't throw it into the safties arms.

3rd drive
1 10 -- clean pocket, bad over throw of Sanders w/ball landing out of bounds, about 44 yards in the air.
2 10 -- Max Garcia badly beat on bull rush, Siemian scrambles for first down.
2 8 -- clean pocket, 11 yard completion to Sanders for first down
1 10 -- clean pocket, RB picks up blitzer, pass to Sanders on drag route incomplete. While it hit his hands, it looked like Siemian led him too much, but the only angle they showed was a sideline view and it's impossible to say. I'm going to assume it was slightly off target and on Siemian, since we don't have any other view to show otherwise.
2 10 -- pocket immediately collapses (maybe part of the play fake), WR screen to taylor, completed for no gain. Based on design of play and routes not run by other receivers, it's clear that Taylor was only intended receiver on that play.
3 10 -- Clean pocket, back shoulder throw to Taylor. Appeared to be designed back shoulder throw like with TD, might have been slightly off target, great catch by Siemian. Nearly identical throw and catch as TD from week before.

4th Drive
2 7 -- Clean pocket. ONLY viable receiver is Green. Narrow window with defenders trailing and coming off Taylor, throw a little low, hits Green in hands. Probably on stat sheet as a drop, but if Siemian puts the ball a few feet higher, it's much easier catch for Green.
3 7 -- Both tackles beat. Siemian hit in 2.1 seconds. No receivers open to throw it to, even attempting to throw away would have risked strip sack. Sack was only possibility.

5th Drive
1 10 -- Clean pocket, Siemian throws ball 44 yards with perfect placement hitting Sanders in stride. Dropped.
1 10 -- Leary beat, Siemian with short completion to Sanders who runs and slides short of first down.

6th drive
1 10 -- Semi clean pocket, LG was struggling with rusher, noboy open, Siemian scrambles for a few yards
2 7 -- Pocket unstable, so he scrambled out to right, and hits Green on sideline for first down.
1 10 -- Pocket collapsing quickly, mirror image of miscue with Charles earlier, this time Charles looks over shoulder and makes reception for short gain.
2 5 -- pocket clean, hits Taylor on short slant for 10 yard or so gain.
1 10 -- pocket clean, hits charles over middle for 11 yards
1 10 -- pocket cleanish, hits derby over the middle for 6 yards.
2 4 -- pocket starts to break down, Siemian scrambles left throws on run, very good throw on run, better play by leaping defender to get finger on it and deflect it and Sanders doesn't catch.
2 4 -- pocket cleanish, rusher beats Watson and Siemian wanted receiver on right, but had to step up and then hits CJ for short gain well short of TD (due to time on clock, needed a throw to endzeon, but pocket wouldn't allow that).

Thanks for the analysis Tned, I don't see it being well received by some, but thanks for putting the work in regardless.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

Thanks for the analysis Tned, I don't see it being well received by some, but thanks for putting the work in regardless.

Well, it's open for discussion (agreement and disagreement), but I think Gem made it pretty clear that the spamming of threads with the mocking/troll posts will not be tolerated, so I think those of us that want to discuss, both sides, should be free to do so.

If you look at the play by play, or go back and review as I did, I think you can easily see why our initial reaction was really bad, but when looking at the plays, why Tyler said he what he did and why PFF gave him the good grade.

In those first two series.

There was a miscommunication with Charles not knowing the play (they went back to Charles on the exact same play in the 6th drive and this time Charles was looking for and made catch) -- it was a quick hitter, so he was looking for nobody but Charles.

He through the INT when there was pressure coming up the middle and he rushed the throw -- a bad throw, and he's better off throwing it away or taking the sack if he doesn't have time to let the play develop (or hang in the pocket and get hit).

After those two plays, he threw the ball away when the pocket collapsed and short hopped Sanders when throwing while hit by untouched interior rusher.

At this point I'm booked all the way through on the Trans-Anybody but Lynch Express, but if we've been reduced to hyperanalyzing half a preseason game to determine whether our designated starting QB is any good, it's gonna be a long season. Here's hoping SOMEONE improves by leaps and bounds before Opening Day 2018. Is this what it feels like to be a Browns fan? And, if so, how have they made it through umpteen preseasons without slitting their wrists?

Originally Posted by Tned

If you look at the play by play, or go back and review as I did, I think you can easily see why our initial reaction was really bad, but when looking at the plays, why Tyler said he what he did and why PFF gave him the good grade.

In those first two series.

There was a miscommunication with Charles not knowing the play (they went back to Charles on the exact same play in the 6th drive and this time Charles was looking for and made catch) -- it was a quick hitter, so he was looking for nobody but Charles.

He through the INT when there was pressure coming up the middle and he rushed the throw -- a bad throw, and he's better off throwing it away or taking the sack if he doesn't have time to let the play develop (or hang in the pocket and get hit).

After those two plays, he threw the ball away when the pocket collapsed and short hopped Sanders when throwing while hit by untouched interior rusher.

When we are critical of a player, confirmation bias takes over (and the same is true in reverse) We tend to only see the negative situations that help prove our predetermined stance on the matter. In those situations, the good is a lot harder to see because we've already been jaded by the bad. (Again, the same applies in reverse for those that highly support a player)

It is hard to be unbiased, most of us make up our minds about someone early on and then it's an uphill battle for our minds to be changed.

There were positives in the game, there were negatives. It's challenging to look at it as a whole and see the net outcome, for me I felt like it was slightly more positive than negative, but my bias obviously lies towards and not against so that could just be bias talking.

Originally Posted by Joel

At this point I'm booked all the way through on the Trans-Anybody but Lynch Express, but if we've been reduced to hyperanalyzing half a preseason game to determine whether our designated starting QB is any good, it's gonna be a long season. Here's hoping SOMEONE improves by leaps and bounds before Opening Day 2018. Is this what it feels like to be a Browns fan? And, if so, how have they made it through umpteen preseasons without slitting their wrists?

That's my ultimate fear though...That we're going to fall into that Browns QB cycle of depression. I've seen nothing from Elway to suggest that he actually can properly evaluate QB talent at this point so I don't think we're going to break the cycle without one of the guys already on our roster breaking it for us.

Originally Posted by Joel

At this point I'm booked all the way through on the Trans-Anybody but Lynch Express, but if we've been reduced to hyperanalyzing half a preseason game to determine whether our designated starting QB is any good, it's gonna be a long season. Here's hoping SOMEONE improves by leaps and bounds before Opening Day 2018. Is this what it feels like to be a Browns fan? And, if so, how have they made it through umpteen preseasons without slitting their wrists?

I broke it down because I have a day off from work and there isn't much else to do in the offseason. Whether or not I create this thread has no bearing on the Broncos success on the field.

Originally Posted by Freyaka

That's my ultimate fear though...That we're going to fall into that Browns QB cycle of depression. I've seen nothing from Elway to suggest that he actually can properly evaluate QB talent at this point so I don't think we're going to break the cycle without one of the guys already on our roster breaking it for us.

I'm not concerned with Elway's ability, because there is no indication that he's worse than the normal league quarterback evaluation. I know MO did some work a while back and said the success rate for 1st/2nd round QBs picked is something like 7% or so.

The vast, vast, vast majority of first/second round QBs are failures.

In another thread I stated that I felt Trevor would be just fine if the OL played much better, and if the running game, which starts with the OL, was better. That was not making excuses for Trevor, but rather, it is reality.

I had heard the following during one of Dallas' preseason games this year, in regards to the success Prescott had last year. Found the following article from last year on this.

Dak Prescott: Playing behind the Cowboys' offensive line is 'video game-like'

Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott knows that he's spoiled playing behind Dallas' offensive line.

By the way, are we still calling the line the Legion of Room? Is that still a thing?

In a recent interview, Prescott was asked whether he's ever seen an O-line that plays like this one.

"Maybe in a video game," Prescott told CBS Sports' Roughing the Passer podcast. "And that's exactly what they are. Just video game-like, just the way they approach the game, the way they come about it each and every week. And they're physical freaks. As big as they are, they can run. They're nasty up front. It's definitely a privilege to play behind these guys."

But Prescott isn't the only rookie getting tremendous help from the line. And he says teammate Ezekiel Elliott would give them credit, too.

"He'd say the same thing: That offensive line just opens up holes and allows him do what he's good at and just run and make plays," Prescott said

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dal...ideo-game-like

Obviously, Trevor will not/can not carry the offense on his back the way #7 did. With today's QBs, Rogers might be the closest to be able to do that. But Trevor will be just fine with an improved OL, which will result in an improved running game, which will give him time to throw, etc.

Originally Posted by Tned

I broke it down because I have a day off from work and there isn't much else to do in the offseason. Whether or not I create this thread has no bearing on the Broncos success on the field.

I appreciate it. If you are after truth, remain objective and seek to eliminate bias.

I really don't like the slow start and this goes back to last season. Maybe it's not meaningful or a trend, but it has to improve and I'm sure Trevor would say the same. You need to get out front early because the defense is optimized for success when playing with the lead, and it's the kind of defense that will hold down the opponent's offense long enough to get ahead on points.

We can get hung up on reductive information like 2-7 and specific statistical measures and lose context. But in our argument we need that reductive information to support our point, a point that in truth arises from everything we see and know and goes well beyond the reductive measures. Just as your (tned) statistics support a valid point that really arises from other things you feel about Trevor, MO & co. make their points in a similar fashion using similarly valid information that is not entirely reflected in what is easiest to convey.

Sounds like pocket collapses too often. And these are very vanilla defenses. Just over a week to the real games.

Originally Posted by Tned

3 3 -- Quick hitter thrown to Charles outside shoulder, which was clearly a designed play for Charles to turn out on, which is evidence by Studesville spending several minutes going through pictures with Charles right after the play. As mentioned, DT eventually came open 10 yards past the sticks and Sanders was running a shallow cross at the first down markers, but the ball was released almost immediately, making it very obvious that this was intended to be Charles all along on a short out and Charles wasn't on the same page. Maybe Siemian should changed the play or held the ball and seen if something else developed (such as the DT/Sanders routes that we saw open up after the throw), rather than throwing the quick hit type pass.

We don't know how many plays were designated evaluation plays. I think some of Sloter's throws to Heuermann would qualify because he's on the roster bubble and they need to evaluate him, but who knows. It's preseason.

Originally Posted by NightTerror218

Sounds like pocket collapses too often. And these are very vanilla defenses. Just over a week to the real games.

The LG and LT issues can't linger if this team expects success.

Originally Posted by Denver Native (Carol)

In another thread I stated that I felt Trevor would be just fine if the OL played much better, and if the running game, which starts with the OL, was better. That was not making excuses for Trevor, but rather, it is reality.

I had heard the following during one of Dallas' preseason games this year, in regards to the success Prescott had last year. Found the following article from last year on this.



https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dal...ideo-game-like

Obviously, Trevor will not/can not carry the offense on his back the way #7 did. With today's QBs, Rogers might be the closest to be able to do that. But Trevor will be just fine with an improved OL, which will result in an improved running game, which will give him time to throw, etc.

Few would disagree, and if they did, they would be wrong. Brady and Brees should also be in that category of carrying a team imo.