Thread: Must Read: Nobody Listened on draft night - Now you have no choice

You wonder how much sunshine the coaching staff and Elway have blown up Lynch's butt if he thinks he played well. Last night PL was also asked about missing the first read and then taking off running. He made it sound like the staff encouraged him to do that instead of actually trying to go through his progressions. It seems like he's been coddled enough to think he's doing exactly what they want him to do. He's going to have a rude awakening when he's not named the starter.

The Broncos had massive QB void left by PFM.

I just think that if the plan was to wait for Lynch to be ready in 2019 or 2020 that is pure stupidity.

Im with MO, it goes beyond whether a team "feels" the need or expectancy to draft a certain position. Its the "type" of player we are drafting. I know, i know i was high on Brock coming out of college but its hard not to notice the attitudes of these two guys. While i was surprised that Denver was interested in Dak in hindsight i kind of wish we had taken him, mainly because of his demeanor and calm attitude. its fine to have or want projects but if the players themselves dont have the right mental aptitude than the possibility of growth is greatly reduced (see Jay Cutler).

Originally Posted by Joel

Hence the problem with insisting on a "now" player at any position, even QB. We had a number of other critical holes that needed upgrades just as badly: MULTIPLE starting offensive line positions that are CRITICAL for ANY young QBs success, not to mention the lack of a dominant complete package TE that can be just as indispensable to inexperienced QBs. And guys like that were there at #31 (remember: Deflategate cost the Cheats a pick, not that tye missed it.)

Selling out on a 1st round QB in a draft where only a couple guys were even considered POTENTIAL starters, with a sharp drop after them, was a needless gamble: It's hard to imagine any situation LESS desperate than "Reigning World Champs," so we had no need to immediately swing for the fences rather than shoring up other weaknesses with studs, while waiting for our pitch(er) in a later draft.

Pulling the trigger on a 1st round QB when there really weren't any—and trading away a pick to move up so we could—put us in a bind where drafting a legit franchise QB prospect this year would have left us with a lot of egg and three seasons worth of 1st round QB contract on our faces, but trying to shore up those other holes now risked repeating the same mistake: Reaching to fill a position in a draft that's very weak at that spot, and bypassing equally necessary but superior talent to do it.

Compared with his past performances he did play well. Yes he ran too soon, but at least they didn't result in negative plays.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Right. I understand that fully. And I pretty much hate the "we should have drafted X guy" two years after the draft. But I'm talking about consistent themes in the attitudes and personalities of quarterbacks drafted high by Elway (and granted, you can pull the small sample size question on my critiques, because it's just two). There's also consistent themes about physical traits, as well. Is there a theme to the two guys he's tried to draft high? Can we learn anything from that? Does he have a blind spot for this specific type of quarterback, does the organization have a blind spot for this specific type of quarterback?

Here are the 43 QBs (if I didn't miss any) drafted in first round since 2000:

I'm leaving Lynch, Goff, Wentz, Mariotta and Winston out, because it's too early to know on these five. For the other 38 QBs drafted in the first rounds since 2000. This is how I group them.

Elite (or near) level QBs.

Ben Roethlisberger 11th pick
Eli Manning 1st pick
Aaron Rodgers 24th pick
Philip Rivers 4th pick
Matt Ryan 3rd pick
Andrew Luck 1st pick

Good or better level QBs.

Michael Vick 1st pick
Joe Flacco 18th pick
Carson Palmer 1st pick
Cam Newton 1st pick (maybe should be higher, hard to pinpoint)

Inconsistent or "average" tier QBs

Alex Smith 1st pick
Jay Cutler 11th pick
Ryan Tannehill 8th pick
Robert Griffin III 2nd pick (he arguably should be lower - injury or talent?)
Teddy Bridgewater 32 pick (too early to peg, could go up or down from here)

Below average to mediocre

EJ Manuel 16th
Chad Pennington 18th pick
Patrick Ramsey 32nd pick
Rex Grossman 22nd pick
Kyle Boller 19th pick
Byron Leftwich 7th pick
J.P. Losman 22nd pick
Jason Campbell 25th pick
Vince Young 3rd pick)
Josh Freeman 17th pick
Mark Sanchez 5th pick
Tim Tebow 25th pick
Christian Ponder 12th pick
Jake Locker 8th pick
Blake Bortles 3rd pick

Complete busts

Joey Harrington 3rd pick
David Carr 1st pick (could argue 60-70 sacks a year is reason)
Matt Leinart 10th pick
Brady Quinn 22nd pick
JaMarcus Russell 1st pick
Sam Bradford 1st pick
Blaine Gabbert 10th pick
Brandon Weeden 22nd pick

Originally Posted by Tned

Here are the 43 QBs (if I didn't miss any) drafted in first round since 2000:

I'm leaving Lynch, Goff, Wentz, Mariotta and Winston out, because it's too early to know on these five. For the other 38 QBs drafted in the first rounds since 2000. This is how I group them.

Elite (or near) level QBs.

Ben Roethlisberger 11th pick
Eli Manning 1st pick
Aaron Rodgers 24th pick
Philip Rivers 4th pick
Matt Ryan 3rd pick
Andrew Luck 1st pick

Good or better level QBs.

Michael Vick 1st pick
Joe Flacco 18th pick
Carson Palmer 1st pick
Cam Newton 1st pick (maybe should be harder, hard to pinpoint)

Inconsistent or "average" tier QBs

Alex Smith 1st pick
Jay Cutler 11th pick
Ryan Tannehill 8th pick
Robert Griffin III 2nd pick (he arguably should be lower - injury or talent?)
Teddy Bridgewater 32 pick (too early to peg, could go up or down from here)

Below average to mediocre

EJ Manuel 16th
Chad Pennington 18th pick
Patrick Ramsey 32nd pick
Rex Grossman 22nd pick
Kyle Boller 19th pick
Byron Leftwich 7th pick
J.P. Losman 22nd pick
Jason Campbell 25th pick
Vince Young 3rd pick)
Josh Freeman 17th pick
Mark Sanchez 5th pick
Tim Tebow 25th pick
Christian Ponder 12th pick
Jake Locker 8th pick
Blake Bortles 3rd pick

Complete busts

Joey Harrington 3rd pick
David Carr 1st pick (could argue 60-70 sacks a year is reason)
Matt Leinart 10th pick
Brady Quinn 22nd pick
JaMarcus Russell 1st pick
Sam Bradford 1st pick
Blaine Gabbert 10th pick
Brandon Weeden 22nd pick

We're not talking about the same thing.

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

We're not talking about the same thing.

Not really. You are saying that Elway's failures are by repeating the same mistake. I'm pointing out that while you are connecting dots which I don't believe are there, you are losing sight of what a long shot ANY first round QB is. It's not that Elway picked one, and possibly two losers that might have some similarities, but instead that virtually all QBs drafted outside the first couple spots are far, far, far more likely than not to be failures.

Originally Posted by Tned

The didn't sell out, they gave up either a late third or early 4th I believe to move up to pick him. Was it a reach? Maybe, but they weren't the only team considering reaching for Lynch....

Let's not forget that right now the Broncos are in a pretty fortunate place, since their 7th round pick is as good or better than any QB drafted in the first round outside of the top 12, not named Rodgers, since 2000.

Too many fans just can't grasp the fact that if you aren't drafting a blue chip QB that goes in the first few picks, the odds are it will be a busted pick or mediocre QB.

Before too much blame is thrown around at Elway, I think people need to start educating themselves on how low the success rate is on first round QBs.

There are NO legit franchise QB prospects unless you are drafting in the top 3 AND it's a GREAT QB class. Most years you are lucky to have one sure thing franchise QB.

That first statement seems to contradict the rest.

Originally Posted by Tned

Whether they had picked Lynch or picked a QB in the 2nd/3rd, they needed to draft a QB last year. At the moment, it looks like they missed on Lynch.

Why did they "need" to draft a QB then? The eventual and current starter was already on the roster, even if he hadn't proven anything yet, plus they had an experienced (if unreliable) vet as the projected starter. Why couldn't they have re-stocked the trenches with someone better than Schofield, Okung and Sly, and/or found a better coverage LB than Todd Davis? Because if the odds against even a 1st round QB are 93%, what are they in a draft so weak at QB that 4th round prospects go at #26?

As reigning World Champs, we had NOTHING left to prove, and little chance of finding a franchise QB picking DEAD LAST in a weak QB draft. Surely winning the SB earned us at least a year to wait for a better chance at a franchise QB (and there could hardly be a worse one.) Was Goodell going to disband the team or something?

Originally Posted by Joel

That first statement seems to contradict the rest.

Maybe you think so because of my typo having "the" instead of "they." Please explain why you think it's a contradiction. It absolutely is not.

Why did they "need" to draft a QB then? The eventual and current starter was already on the roster, even if he hadn't proven anything yet, plus they had an experienced (if unreliable) vet as the projected starter. Why couldn't they have re-stocked the trenches with someone better than Schofield, Okung and Sly, and/or found a better coverage LB than Todd Davis? Because if the odds against even a 1st round QB are 93%, what are they in a draft so weak at QB that 4th round prospects go at #26?

As reigning World Champs, we had NOTHING left to prove, and little chance of finding a franchise QB picking DEAD LAST in a weak QB draft. Surely winning the SB earned us at least a year to wait for a better chance at a franchise QB (and there could hardly be a worse one.) Was Goodell going to disband the team or something?

No team is going to bet the farm on a 7th round pick that spent his entire rookie season running the scout team and has one NFL snap, a kneel down. Don't get me wrong, I heard he was graded VERY high on the kneel down, but still...

Come on, that wasn't a serious question about "why" they needed to draft a QB, so I'm not going to waste anymore time answering it than the two sentences above.

Originally Posted by Tned

Not really. You are saying that Elway's failures are by repeating the same mistake. I'm pointing out that while you are connecting dots which I don't believe are there, you are losing sight of what a long shot ANY first round QB is. It's not that Elway picked one, and possibly two losers that might have some similarities, but instead that virtually all QBs drafted outside the first couple spots are far, far, far more likely than not to be failures.

In your opinion, is it possible that it's unlikely to get a top guy, while also flocking towards a certain type of QB/personality/thing?

The conversation is fascinating - I think you could both be correct.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

In your opinion, is it possible that it's unlikely to get a top guy, while also flocking towards a certain type of QB/personality/thing?

The conversation is fascinating - I think you could both be correct.

Yes, but since the odds are so bad anyway, some would argue that chance theory would indicate repeatedly drafting players with similar qualities, rather than a more random nature, could result in a greater probability of successful outcome.

Originally Posted by Tned

Yes, but since the odds are so bad anyway, some would argue that chance theory would indicate repeatedly drafting players with similar qualities, rather than a more random nature, could result in a greater probability of successful outcome.

Wouldn't it be cool to 'know'?

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

Wouldn't it be cool to 'know'?

Not as cool as winning. Have you spotted the common thread that runs through all the successful QBs drafted in the first round?

Originally Posted by Tned

Not as cool as winning. Have you spotted the common thread that runs through all the successful QBs drafted in the first round?

I just meant in the sense of 'knowing' what the answer to our situation was.

Originally Posted by Von Kinger

I just meant in the sense of 'knowing' what the answer to our situation was.

Gotcha, but have you spotted the common thread?