Thread: Which Curve Do You Think We Have Here?

Here's a question. "What are your expectations for Trevor Siemian"? I wanted to expose the basis of fan disagreement here, and not go round and round in an already existing endless thread. I believe two simple graphs expose the differences between the attitudes of fans here, So I started this thread:

Indisputable Truth: Siemian had some good, some bad, and some mediocre moments last year. Depending on how you look at it, you could conclude "he did pretty good, considering. . . ."

1. Considering: Considering that it was his first year starting.
2. Considering that he was badly injured most of the year.
3. Considering that the OL was horrible and they couldn't run the ball.
4. Considering he was hampered by the dead hand of the Kubiak system.

If you look at all the limiting factors and think "if 1-4 weren't present he'd be pretty good" then you believe that Trevor's career is somewhere on curve #1.

Attachment 10813
Graph #1: Your good to Elite QB. Performance is on the Y-axis. Tom Brady's career looks like this. The line never curves downward. The only difference between elite QBs is how high the top amplitude of the curve is.

If Trevor is on Curve #1 somewhere: You see performance improve and then plateau as Trevor approaches his ceiling - as a good starting QB.

However, I see that Trevor has NEVER shown flashes of brilliance. NONE. We saw what flashes of brilliance looks like Thursday night. We saw some from Kyle Sloter, and a lot from Mitch Trebisky. We saw none from Trevor or Paxton. There were no "wow!" plays from either.

Here is what a graphical representation of a mediocre QB looks like:

Graph #2: Mediocre/Bad QBs.

"If blah, blah, blah, blah, they could be pretty good."There are periods of hope when his play is either improving, or he's playing at a high level. But, then there are periods of regression to the mean, the lower part of the curve. They said all that about Chad Henne and Tyrod Taylor.

Here's what I anticipate. Some ups, and then some downs. That's how MEDIOCRE QBs play.

Some good moments give people hope that "he's getting better", then there are bad moments where NFL defenses adjust to whatever your QB was doing well, or he gets injured, or players around him get injured and he cannot perform as well and his play declines.

That is how a graph of Kyle Orton's play would look. Some good moments. Some nice throws. He can even win you some games, but then he reverts to the mean as a mediocre QB.

Mediocre means that for every good day there is a bad day. If he has a better than average season, and gets everybody's hopes up, he's pretty sure to follow this up with a below average season in which he's a disappointment.

That's why you can't reasonably expect to win a championship with a mediocre QB. A mediocre QB cannot elevate the game of everybody around him and make up for deficiencies elsewhere on the offense.

Having a mediocre QB means that you cannot beat Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger or Andrew Luck unless the rest of your team is better than the rest of their team, because your QB is worse than their QB.

So, I think it's time to see "How many of you really think Trevor career is somewhere on Graph #1."

I see no flashes that convince me that he's on Graph #1 though. I see a guy on Graph #2.

And this, I believe explains much of the argument between fans "he's not so bad" vs. "no, he's really bad." What curve is Trevor on in your view?

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