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Thread: Sell me on a Bronco QB.

  1. #1

    Default Sell me on a Bronco QB.

    Sell me on him/them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    Y’all know I’m an OL Groupie but I think Jeudy is going to be worth missing out on a T, knock on wood.

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    Lynch
    - Huge, can see entire field.
    - Bigtime Arm, jugs machine.
    - Mobile for any QB, especially one 6-7.
    - NFL Arm talent.
    - Aggressive.
    - Clutch under pressure in college.
    - Huge hands, and you know what that means? That's right, he can palm a basketball.
    - Good leader, commands the huddle, bit of a goob tho. Like Von Miller goob.
    - Fair accuracy at this point, needs work on ball placement.
    - Plays with passion.
    - Stach.

    Siemian
    - Very good height, 6-3.
    - Very good arm strength.
    - Wicked smart, got into Northwestern.
    - Better touch than Lynch.
    - Accuracy.
    - Underrated athlete, can buy time but too frail to play hero ball.
    - NFL Arm talent.
    - Good leader, commands huddle.
    - Clutch under pressure in college.
    - Plays injured.
    - Flat-liner.
    - Birks and Socks. Bit of a goob.
    - Capricorn.

    Chad Kelly
    - Very good height/weight, solid speed.
    - Very Mobile, buys time and moves the sticks.
    - Cannon.
    - Legit accuracy.
    - Plays with passion.
    - Good leader.
    - Gunslinger.
    - Football smart.
    - NFL Arm Talent.
    - Plays with HATE!
    - Irish.

    Sloter
    - Great size/speed. 6-5 and claims 4.5 wheels when not running 40 in someone else's shoes on gym floor.
    - Huge arm.
    - Great touch.
    - NFL Arm talent.
    - Very mobile, buys time/moves sticks.
    - Very intelligent.
    - Resilient.
    - Sleeper.
    - Played in WCO/Pro Style offense.
    - Huge potential.
    - Local college kid.
    - Likes soda.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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    I think Siemian, in general, will make good decisions and not make the wrong throws. I think he'll be a decent compliment to the strong defense, he'll just have to punch in some more chances and convert some more third downs.
    *The statements above are my opinions, unless they are links, because then they are links, which wouldn't make them my opinions, and I suppose stats aren't necessarily opinion, but they are certainly presented to support an opinion. Proceed accordingly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buff View Post
    What is this, amateur hour? It's TNF against the Jets and you didn't think you'd need extra booze?

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    The only thing that excites me about Siemian is that in time he might have that Manning trait of gathering encyclopedic knowledge of NFL defenses and be able to act on it in real time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOtorboat View Post
    I think Siemian, in general, will make good decisions and not make the wrong throws. I think he'll be a decent compliment to the strong defense, he'll just have to punch in some more chances and convert some more third downs.
    Siemian makes less poor decision. Takes less chancesm likes check downs. Horrible inaccurate when rattled. See SD home game.

    Lynch at tomes takes big chances or 2nd guesses self. Basically no experience. Problems with progressions and reading defenses. But will more live game reps help.

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    I think we see a more aggressive Siemian with a more aggressive McCoy.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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  11. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    I think we see a more aggressive Siemian with a more aggressive McCoy.
    That may be true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Von Kinger View Post
    Sell me on him/them.
    Price List:
    Siemian: $1,000
    Lynch: $800
    Kelly: $400
    Sloter $200

    20% discount if you order in the next hour.
    I’m an Autistic Self-Advocate. If you have any questions about Autism/Asperger’s, feel free to ask. I’m not offended by any question asked by anyone who has a genuine desire to understand us better.

    https://aacphoenix.com/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    That may be true.
    He needs a better OL though.
    "Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
    “I’m just different!”

    Sign Garbage Minshew.

    Draft
    1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
    2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
    3rd round— Will Shipley RB
    4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
    5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
    6th round— Cash Jones RB
    7th round— Carson Steele RB

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    Not going to spend any time looking up stats and posting them. I did quite a bit of that last year and people were so entrenched in their three camps (pro-Lynch, Pro-Siemian and ABS - Anyone But Siemian) that it was a wasted effort, so I won't waste my time again. Besides, it doesn't really matter, since what they are doing now and in preseason games is what matters most this year.

    That said, in honor of the OPs wishes, I will give some thoughts.

    I think Jaded did a pretty good job of listing strengths/weaknesses of each player. Obviously, we've only seen significant snaps from one of them in the NFL, which is why much of what he lists is related to their college careers and/or physical traits.

    I think with Kelly we probably have the best QB of the lot. If you wiped out all history of the four QBs. Knew nothing about their careers, off field problems, etc. and simply put the top scout from all 32 teams into a room and had them watch film of the four QBs, with NO other facts or history to go on, only one of the QBs would be identified as a first round selection, and it would likely be nearly universal from the 32 scouts. So, Kelly has all of the physical skills to be an elite QB, he just might not have the brains/temperament to even be a backup. He's the very epitome of the high risk/high reward player, but by picking him last in the NFL, there isn't much risk, so let's say the epitome of a boom or bust QB.

    With Lynch, he's got all of the physical skills that could make him a very good QB, maybe even elite, but due to the school he started at, his football IQ and "NFL readiness" is about as low as it gets for a drafted QB. So, that tells you just how good his physical tools are. There is a reason quite a few scouts/GMs questioned about Lynch in the pre-draft analysis, referred to him as a 2-3 year project. Even if he doesn't win the starting job this year, it in NO way means he won't be a quality, or even elite, starter in the league eventually. He just has to learn some of the fundamentals that he didn't learn in college.

    In Siemian, we have a QB that followed Peyton Manning and a Super Bowl win and that means that Broncos fans that always have unrealistic QB expectations were at a whole new level of distorted reality when evaluating Siemian's performance as a first year starter.

    It's akin to the quip I made yesterday about how unhinged fans were screaming in the game day threads "another ******* shank by Dixon" while time and again the "shank" sailed 40+ yards and he went on to one of the best rookie punting seasons in recent memory and finished in the top 10 in net punting and just a hair outside the top 10 in punts inside the 20. Meaning, that in the heat of the moment, as we are wrapped up in the game and how this team we invest so much emotionally does, we lose sight of actual facts and reality. Kind of like a non pre-meditated murder can be classified temporary insanity. In the moment, sometimes facts and reality get distorted.

    So, back to Siemian. It's extremely hard to evaluate Siemian's performance for a few reasons. First, by all accounts he got very, very few reps other than on the scout team his rookie year. On the bright side, he got to study Manning, and I think we saw signs of that not only on the field, but in handling the media, BUT, it doesn't change the fact that his rookie year he wasn't being groomed as the backup, not to mention being the starter.

    Add to that, the Broncos had the worst RT in the league and second worst LT in the league, and a bad offensive line overall, which not surprisingly also resulted in one of the worst running games in the league. What's worse than that? A HC/OC who's ENTIRE offensive scheme is predicated on having a dominant running game that sets up play action passing. Siemian routinely only had 2.0 - 2.5 seconds to release the ball before being sacked (often with much of that time with his pack to the line executing a play action), but had a head coach that failed to design and call plays designed to get the ball out quickly, and instead stuck with slow developing play action and similar slow developing play calls.

    So, with all those "facts" that need to be considered, what did we see from the first year starter? We saw a mixed bag. In his first couple games, he wasn't great, but he wasn't horrible. He showed an extremely fast release and good accuracy, but made a few mistakes in each game (fortunately, some dropped INTs on those mistakes). I believe it was the first game of the year, that the SNF crew showed the timing of his release and said it was one of the fastest they had timed, ever. Not the fastest, but in the realm of the fastest they had timed.

    Prior to his injury, he was extremely accurate. Again, routinely commented on by the broadcast crews, and evidenced when watching. This accuracy dropped off dramatically after the injury and he was never as accurate the rest of the season as he was the first four games before the injury. He didn't throw deep often in the first three games, but by all accounts that had a lot to do with how the teams (especially Colts/Panthers) were playing defense. As fans, we like to see the deep shots, but if they are playing deep safeties, cover two, etc., it doesn't mean it's the right thing for the QB to do. Without us sitting in the film room and knowing how he was graded, we just don't know how many deep shots he could, or should, have taken.

    It's also impossible to know how many of the third down throws made short of the sticks was play calling (my suspicion), or the need to get the ball out before a sack, or his lack of confidence in throwing deeper balls. Again, not being in the film room and not knowing what play was called or what defense was on, we can only speculate.

    We saw plenty of evidence of toughness, where he threw long completions moments before, or as, he was being hit in the chest by a rusher that blew by a tackle as if they were on a coffee break, so he showed lots of toughness.

    If you look at the first starting season of all QBs drafted since 2000 that started at least 8 games in their first starting season (either rookie or second year), he stacks up very well statistically, and did better than many top tier QBs currently playing in the league and better than many top 15 drafted QBs. Some say, that doesn't matter, he still sucked, but that's a simplistic and emotional response, not an objective one. Especially when the comparisons were almost always made to 5+ year veterans, not other first year starters. It's emotion knee jerk reactions, not objective analysis.

    When evaluating a first year starter, you MUST:

    1. Look at how he stacked up against other first year starters.
    2. Consider the conditions played under, such as quality of line, running game, receiving corp, etc.
    3. Consider whether the coach put him in a position to succeed (for instance, Andy Reid overhauled his offensive scheme/play calling last year to help his veteran QB get the ball out quick to compensate for bad line, Kubiak refused to do the same for his first year starter)
    4. Is he making the same mistakes over and over, or is he showing signs of improvement


    Those are just some of the things us fans can see and evaluate, and in all of those respects, Siemian did very well overall, but extremely well when viewed as a first year starter (obviously, point one only applies to first year starters).

    Now, what we don't have enough information to evaluate are things such as how many sacks were the QBs fault, because he failed to recognize a blitz and adjust coverage or play. Failed to go deep when it was there, or threw short of the sticks when he could have thrown longer. We simply don't know how he graded out, because we don't know the plays and other factors that goes into a real evaluation of the QB.

    Now, so where does that leave us with Siemian. What we saw pre-injury was a first year starter with a VERY fast release, making few mistakes and extremely accurate. Who when he finally went up against a defense that was allowing deep shots, he took them against Cincy and completed them.

    Then he got hurt. From that point forward, he was up and down the rest of the season. Again, when comparing him to other first year starters, most drafted FAR,FAR,FAR higher than him and many that are now considered top tier, he stacks up extremely well and better than many of the top tier guys. But, it was a regression from pre injury and just because he was as good or better than most first year starters of the last two decades, DOES NOT in and of itself mean he will be a good to great NFL starter.

    If we got nothing more than Siemian gave last year, he has shown that if he's given just a bit more protection, a running game that isn't horrid and some decent play calling, that at minimum he can "manage" the game well enough to score enough points to win more than the Broncos lose, when backed up by the Broncos great defense.

    Now, none of that answers the million dollar question.

    In his second year of starting (third year overall), with better tools around him and the injury behind him, can he play better than he did last year? That's obviously the question that the coaches are considering as they decide which QB gives the team the best chance of winning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaded View Post
    I think we see a more aggressive Siemian with a more aggressive McCoy.
    Agreed. I think many of us underestimate the anchor that was Kubiak that was dragging Siemian and the whole offense down. It gives me no pleasure in saying that, because I loved Kubiak as a player, loved him as the OC, and was excited, but also concerned, when he was hired as OC. My concern was that he was a one trick pony that couldn't or wouldn't adjust if he didn't have a running game, and that's what we saw.

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    I quoted my December post the other day in the training camp thread about where I saw the QB battle in early December. I'll repost it here, because as I said in that thread, I think we are sitting right now exactly where we were sitting in early December in terms of who will be the starter this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tned View Post
    As we sit here today, if I was putting percentages on it:

    50% Siemian 2017 starter
    35% Lynch 2017 starter
    15% 2017 starter not on Broncos roster today

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    Elway is the goat.

    #iwin
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    Here's an interesting one.

    How do you account for the huge discrepancy? One way to look at it is that when blitzed, there is a mismatch/open man and Siemian's high football IQ and quick release made teams pay. However, when there wasn't a blitz there would be tighter coverage and the Broncos line wasn't capable of providing pockets long enough for routes to develop and receivers to come open.


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    A few more stats:



    The primary purpose of this PFF chart is to show how much worse a QB performs when under pressure (Tannehill had the largest drop off in NFL when under pressure, Wentz the second worse in terms of drop in rating under pressure, etc.). While it's sorted by the difference in rating under pressure and not, it also provides a nice snapshot of how each QB did relative to the field with a clean pocket and under pressure. We see that Siemian was certainly not the highest rated passer, but he was on par (or better) than many veterans and high pick players (Manning, Wentz, Winston, Palmer, etc.)



    You can click the image below to go to Football outsiders and see the full list, including those above 12 in DYAR. This shows that he was 20-22 in the major rankings that Outsiders do. It's worth noting some of the big name vets/MVPs/high draft picks just above him or below him on the list.


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