Because I was told earlier this week that it was unfair to compare Siemian to anything but quarterbacks in their first full year of starting, I did that with the Football Outsiders numbers for all of the quarterbacks on the +200 attempts chart from 2016.
The first chart is ranked by DYAR, which is essentially FO's WAR:
Code:
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C%
D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1%
K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8%
M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3%
B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2%
P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4%
R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6%
C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4%
A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5%
E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9%
A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3%
T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7%
T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1%
J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9%
C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3%
C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5%
D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1%
A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0%
J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4%
B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7%
T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6%
C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0%
R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5%
M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7%
C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7%
M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5%
A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0%
D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9%
S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4%
C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9%
R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7%
B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5%
M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5%
J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1%
Second is DVOA, which is essentially effectiveness of each play adjusted for down, distance, opponent and a whole lot of other variables.
Code:
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C%
B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2%
D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1%
M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3%
R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6%
P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4%
K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8%
C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4%
T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7%
A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5%
E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9%
A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3%
T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1%
C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5%
J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9%
C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3%
D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1%
J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4%
A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0%
B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7%
T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6%
C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0%
R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5%
M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7%
C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7%
M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5%
D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9%
S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4%
A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0%
C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9%
R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7%
B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5%
M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5%
B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1%
J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
Third is VOA, DVOA without some variables, most notably, the strength of the opponent.
Code:
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C%
D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1%
B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2%
M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3%
K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8%
P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4%
R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6%
C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4%
A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5%
T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7%
T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1%
E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9%
A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3%
J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9%
C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3%
D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1%
B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7%
M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7%
A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0%
C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5%
T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6%
C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0%
M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5%
J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4%
R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5%
C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7%
S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4%
A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0%
C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9%
D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9%
B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5%
R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7%
M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5%
B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1%
J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
EYDS, which is DVOA melded into a yard per play stat.
Code:
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C%
K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8%
D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1%
A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5%
E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9%
A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0%
P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4%
M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3%
A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3%
J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9%
R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6%
C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4%
C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3%
D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1%
C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7%
T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1%
S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4%
D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9%
B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2%
T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6%
C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5%
T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7%
R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5%
J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4%
B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7%
A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0%
B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5%
M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5%
R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7%
C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9%
B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1%
C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0%
M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5%
M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7%
J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
I don't think this is condemnation of Siemian. I don't think it's a crowning of Siemian, either. It is what it is. There is potential for him to be a decent quarterback, but I don't think he played well last year. He's not trash, he's not Tebow or Akili Smith. He's certainly a pleasant surprise as a seventh round pick, and I certainly hope he will be good as he is the person that I believe will be announced out of the tunnel on opening night and, as long as he's healthy, all 16 games this season. I don't think Lynch is ready (just a gut feeling, I haven't watched any of training camp), Sloter is training camp fodder and Kelly is going to be on IR, or the third quarterback.