"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
Because I was told earlier this week that it was unfair to compare Siemian to anything but quarterbacks in their first full year of starting, I did that with the Football Outsiders numbers for all of the quarterbacks on the +200 attempts chart from 2016.
The first chart is ranked by DYAR, which is essentially FO's WAR:
Second is DVOA, which is essentially effectiveness of each play adjusted for down, distance, opponent and a whole lot of other variables.Code:Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1% K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8% M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3% B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2% P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4% R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6% C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4% A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5% E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9% A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3% T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7% T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1% J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9% C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3% C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5% D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1% A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0% J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4% B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7% T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6% C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0% R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5% M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7% C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7% M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5% A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0% D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9% S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4% C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9% R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7% B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5% M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5% J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9% B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1%
Third is VOA, DVOA without some variables, most notably, the strength of the opponent.Code:Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2% D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1% M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3% R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6% P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4% K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8% C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4% T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7% A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5% E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9% A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3% T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1% C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5% J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9% C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3% D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1% J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4% A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0% B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7% T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6% C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0% R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5% M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7% C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7% M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5% D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9% S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4% A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0% C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9% R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7% B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5% M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5% B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1% J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
EYDS, which is DVOA melded into a yard per play stat.Code:Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1% B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2% M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3% K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8% P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4% R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6% C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4% A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5% T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7% T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1% E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9% A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3% J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9% C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3% D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1% B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7% M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7% A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0% C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5% T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6% C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0% M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5% J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4% R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5% C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7% S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4% A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0% C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9% D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9% B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5% R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7% M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5% B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1% J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
I don't think this is condemnation of Siemian. I don't think it's a crowning of Siemian, either. It is what it is. There is potential for him to be a decent quarterback, but I don't think he played well last year. He's not trash, he's not Tebow or Akili Smith. He's certainly a pleasant surprise as a seventh round pick, and I certainly hope he will be good as he is the person that I believe will be announced out of the tunnel on opening night and, as long as he's healthy, all 16 games this season. I don't think Lynch is ready (just a gut feeling, I haven't watched any of training camp), Sloter is training camp fodder and Kelly is going to be on IR, or the third quarterback.Code:Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA QBR Rk Pass Yards EYds TD FK FL INT C% K.Cousins WAS 1,023 7 1,125 5 16.9% 6 19.7% 70.1 6 570 3,979 4,329 29 2 3 11 69.8% D.Prescott DAL 1,302 4 1,220 5 31.6% 3 28.9% 81.5 3 483 3,527 4,229 23 2 4 4 68.1% A.Rodgers GB 708 12 746 10 8.5% 14 9.6% 66.9 8* 569 3,775 3,859 28 6 3 13 64.5% E.Manning NYG 632 9 610 11 6.0% 17 5.4% 0.0 0 585 3,573 3,840 24 6 2 17 52.9% A.Luck IND 257 19 366 17 -5.1% 19 -2.6% 65.0 11 662 4,089 3,793 23 5 5 17 55.0% P.Rivers SD 891 6 931 6 17.4% 9 18.7% 0.0 0 490 3,203 3,724 22 4 2 9 62.4% M.Ryan ATL 1,012 7 875 7 25.3% 4 20.3% 74.1 3 451 3,330 3,609 16 3 1 11 61.3% A.Dalton CIN 575 12 485 12 5.6% 13 3.0% 45.6 26 540 3,224 3,550 20 1 2 13 58.3% J.Winston TB 467 16 495 15 2.1% 16 2.9% 58.6 21 560 3,828 3,480 22 2 1 15 58.9% R.Wilson SEA 872 8 741 12 19.7% 6 15.0% 69.6 8 432 2,935 3,467 26 3 3 9 64.6% C.Kaepernick SF 791 8 650 13 16.6% 7 11.7% 68.6 7 456 2,969 3,358 21 1 3 7 58.4% C.Newton CAR 404 15 428 13 0.8% 16 1.5% 55.0 18 551 3,810 3,287 21 3 2 17 60.3% D.Brees SD 344 21 430 18 -1.3% 25 1.2% 0.0 0 548 3,104 3,279 17 2 0 15 61.1% C.Wentz PHI -36 27 12 26 -12.0% 27 -10.8% 52.8 26 641 3,580 3,254 16 5 2 14 62.7% T.Brady NE 491 13 494 12 5.4% 12 5.5% 0.0 0 456 2,625 3,059 18 9 3 11 64.1% S.Bradford STL -178 39 -5 34 -15.6% 34 -11.3% 41.5 30 622 3,262 3,006 18 5 2 13 60.4% D.Carr OAK -150 37 -355 41 -14.9% 34 -20.1% 38.4 34 622 3,071 2,969 21 5 4 12 58.9% B.Rothlsbrgr PIT 908 11 843 10 31.7% 3 28.7% 0.0 0 326 2,393 2,942 17 0 2 10 67.2% T.Siemian DEN 137 22 214 21 -7.1% 21 -4.8% 55.8 21 516 3,182 2,891 18 1 2 9 59.6% C.Palmer CIN 393 17 206 18 2.6% 16 -4.0% 0.0 0 453 2,682 2,845 18 0 2 18 62.5% T.Taylor BUF 536 14 486 16 9.8% 8 7.9% 67.8 7 417 2,810 2,790 20 5 1 6 63.7% R.Tannehill MIA 39 25 86 24 -9.9% 25 -8.5% 52.3 19 517 3,069 2,694 12 2 3 13 58.5% J.Flacco BAL 232 19 133 25 -3.0% 22 -6.5% 43.2 29 461 2,729 2,606 14 5 2 11 60.4% B.Hoyer CLE 166 25 255 21 -5.3% 26 -2.2% 43.1 31 465 3,170 2,513 12 2 1 12 55.7% A.Smith SF -147 38 -140 38 -16.0% 35 -15.8% 0.0 0 477 2,694 2,233 16 5 2 16 59.0% B.Osweiler HOU -558 33 -502 33 -26.8% 33 -25.3% 55.3 22 535 2,739 2,105 15 3 1 15 59.5% M.Mariota TEN -53 30 123 23 -13.2% 28 -6.4% 61.0 16 407 2,551 2,017 19 3 6 10 62.5% R.Fitzpatrick CIN -315 37 -457 41 -22.9% 35 -28.1% 38.1 33 408 1,707 1,736 8 4 4 8 59.7% C.Keenum LARM -183 31 -174 31 -19.5% 31 -19.1% 43.4 32 345 2,054 1,507 9 2 1 11 60.9% B.Bortles JAC -955 44 -935 44 -40.7% 43 -40.0% 21.9 43 530 2,554 1,310 11 5 0 16 59.1% C.Kessler CLE 50 24 80 25 -7.6% 22 -5.4% 49.6 28 218 1,225 1,196 6 3 1 2 66.0% M.Stafford DET -653 45 -497 43 -36.6% 41 -30.6% 30.0 37 394 2,091 1,178 13 3 1 20 54.5% M.Barkley CHI 4 26 127 23 -10.9% 26 -2.2% 39.2 33 222 1,568 1,150 8 0 2 13 59.7% J.Goff LARM -881 34 -819 34 -74.8% 34 -70.3% 22.2 34 230 876 -85 5 3 2 7 54.9%
Geek fight!
"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
Puts him middle of the pack, with most of those above and below him QBs drafted far earlier, many who also started as rookies, not second year players.
As you said, doesn't condemn or crown, but at least shows he wasn't awful as a first year starter (as many contend) compared to other first year starters, but instead middle of the pack
Nope, Siemian got blitzed, never said he didn't. I said that teams didn't have to blitz, and they didn't, not with that OL. Waste of energy. I discounted your "provec" (whatever the **** that means) stat because my joke was more relevant.
Btw, I didn't discount your original stat, I agreed with it. I high fived the post, Siemian good when blitzed, never said otherwise.
Now I understand why you can't interpret the same sources correctly.
Last edited by Simple Jaded; 08-06-2017 at 04:47 AM.
"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
Sweet Jumpin' Jeebus TNED! And people accuse me of lengthy posts! Talk about the Encyclopedia Britannica there!
Breaking one small paragraph off from that indigestible mass:
Kelly will get his chance next season to start unless either Trevor or Paxton convinces John Elway that he's on his way to becoming the next Derek Carr, i.e. a top 10 QB. Right now they're both light years away.I think with Kelly we probably have the best QB of the lot. If you wiped out all history of the four QBs. Knew nothing about their careers, off field problems, etc. and simply put the top scout from all 32 teams into a room and had them watch film of the four QBs, with NO other facts or history to go on, only one of the QBs would be identified as a first round selection, and it would likely be nearly universal from the 32 scouts. So, Kelly has all of the physical skills to be an elite QB, he just might not have the brains/temperament to even be a backup. He's the very epitome of the high risk/high reward player, but by picking him last in the NFL, there isn't much risk, so let's say the epitome of a boom or bust QB.
Elway knows full well that what happened in 2015 was a one in a lifetime fluke. The '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2015 Broncos - none ever repeated winning with just defense and virtually no offense. The Bears for instance had a very good defense for years, but no joy because they'd get in the playoffs and they had Jim McMahon, and the Giants had Phil Simms and the 49ers had Joe Montana.
So, if the Broncos are to get past Brady and the Patriots or Roethlisberger and the Steelers, they need a top 10 QB. It's too much to expect that guy to be a Hall of Fame QB like Roethlisberger, Manning or Brady. But, they have to be 2nd tier. You're not going to find an Aaron Rogers or Drew Brees, or probably Phillip Rivers, but hopefully something like Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Derek Carr, Eli Manning - all guys who either have won SBs or could.
You can name your own list. But, for the Broncos to have a realistic chance, their QB just can't be TOO far behind Tom Brady. That's the dilemma that has thwarted the Chiefs for years - lots of talent on both sides of the ball now, but when they have Roethlisberger, and you have Alex Smith, you don't have much chance.
Put a decent QB on that Chiefs roster and maybe they beat the Steelers and go to Foxborough for the AFC Championship Game. Maybe (in their dreams) it's the Chiefs winning their first Super Bowl since they beat the Vikings. So, they draft Pat Mahomes.
Elway sees all this of course, and he's not going to be satisfied having the 3rd worst or worst QB in the division. So, the bar is set very high indeed. And either or both Siemian and Paxton winding up as the next Kyle Orton is just not good enough. If that's all they can do, then Elway will go back to the first round of the draft in 2018 and draft another franchise QB. Then they trade Siemian and start Paxton until either the rookie or Chad Kelly is ready to start. Then he backs up till the end of his contract, at which point they let him walk (4 years, no 5th year option in this scenario).
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