Though He slay me, I will trust in Him . . . (Job 13:15)
I'd rather take Jake Plummer's head and put it on Cutler's body, forget Tebow and Manziel...we can do better.
"Tuning ... into each other ... lift all higher”
“I’m just different!”
“ . . . Picture a cup in the middle of the sea”
Draft
1st round— Cooper Dejean CB
2nd round— Jack Sawyer OLB
3rd round— Will Shipley RB
4th round— Ricky Pearsall WR
5th round— Ladd McKonkey WR
6th round— Cash Jones RB
7th round— Carson Steele RB
Mostly agree with how you distinguish Kelly from Manziel. I watched Perna's 'Doing Shots with the Broncos' and my thought after watching Kelly was that he's a solid locker room guy but he's a partier. I just don't think he has the gravitas for the position.
Like Lynch, I'll be happy to eat crow about him. If he has a good support system, keeping him focused on the task at hand, he's a quality starter.
Originally Posted by Sting
All quarterback are terrible, they should just bring back the single wing
tonight
Well, since the "mental shit" is about 90% of playing QB in the NFL, the only answer is "not for a while."
Since later (after the mid 2nd round) QBs almost never become SB winning QBs (Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner & Tom Brady are the lone exceptions) that also points towards "never".
For some reason, people don't understand or like statistics. But, there have been a LOT of QBs drafted after around 56 (where Osweiler was taken) since 2000 when Brady was taken in the 6th round. That's 18 seasons. 36 QBs started SBs in that time.
So, based on simple statistics with no detailed analysis:
3 guys out of 36 = .08% or 8/10 of a percent. Not even a 1% chance. So, if you bet "never" you'd be 99% sure to win the bet, since over 99% of QBs taken in the later rounds never win SBs.
You can quibble about the statistics, but basically it's around 99% chance of "Never" and maybe a 1% chance of a miracle where Denver finds a franchise QB in the last pick of the draft and he wins the SB someday.
Just because it's never actually happened that Mr. Irrelevant becomes a SB champion, doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's wildly unlikely.
No, it's the modern football era. 2000 is a good cutoff because the NFL started protecting QBs more and more in the 2000s and because Brady was drafted in the 6th round in 2000. They started flagging "late hits" which they now interpret as anything after the ball leaves the QB's hands. The rules changed, making the league more of a passing league. And every time anybody points out how rare it is for later round QBs to succeed, some idiot always points to Tom Brady. That's all.
Brees is not mentioned because he was drafted #32, which is before the late 2nd round. He wasn't a later round pick.
You can arbitrarily change the parameters if you like but it won't change the result much. About a 1% chance of success. 99% chance of failure.
Dilfer IS an important exception. I didn't mention him because he was drafted before 2000. But, about once a decade a team with an historically great defense wins the SB, despite having not much offense and a journeyman QB. '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2015 Broncos (Peyton was on his last legs). But, they never repeat. So, as a formula for sustained success, it's not a good one and for purposes of looking towards the future, it's not relevant.
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