Thread: When does Chad Kelly take over the starting job

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Last time I tried to make semblance of a number to this question I arrived at about 93 percent.

Exactly. The failure rate on first round QBs is insanely high, mix in second rounders, and it's even worse.

Everyone and his brother knows that the chance of Mr. Irrelevant becoming a quality backup, forget great starter, is an extreme long shot, but the fact is that the vast, vast, vast majority of first round QBs are busts, and Chris Harris shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Draft position is an indicator of likelihood of success, but nothing more.

Originally Posted by Tned

Exactly. The failure rate on first round QBs is insanely high, mix in second rounders, and it's even worse.

Everyone and his brother knows that the chance of Mr. Irrelevant becoming a quality backup, forget great starter, is an extreme long shot, but the fact is that the vast, vast, vast majority of first round QBs are busts, and Chris Harris shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Draft position is an indicator of likelihood of success, but nothing more.

I arrived at the conclusion that every quarterback drafted starts with about a 7 percent chance. I'm sure first rounders have a slightly higher chance for multiple reasons, but I found that to be a baseline. The reason I was looking at it was someone saying someone wouldn't succeed because he was a lefty (I don't remember if it was Tebow or not), and I had to create a baseline to see if lefties failed at a higher rate than righties and that's the overall number I arrived at and it also appeared to be the exact same rate for lefties.

Originally Posted by Cugel

So, based on simple statistics with no detailed analysis:

3 guys out of 36 = .08% or 8/10 of a percent. Not even a 1% chance. So, if you bet "never" you'd be 99% sure to win the bet, since over 99% of QBs taken in the later rounds never win SBs.

You can quibble about the statistics

Thanks, I will, because dividing 3/36 and getting 0.008 isn't just "no detailed analysis," it's horribly inaccurate math. As in, "off by two orders of magnitude." Worse, you made me agree with MO:

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Last time I tried to make semblance of a number to this question I arrived at about 93 percent.

So 7% of QB drafted in the top 50 reach a SB, and 8% of ALL OTHER QBS do. Sounds like later round QBs offer a good return on investment: Even though there's only ~5X as many of those guys as the ones the draft value chart says are literally 10X better, the late round guys still have a better chance of reaching a SB.

Continually pointing to the mere TWO guys who QBed 63% of the last 16 AFC SB teams "proves" nothing except that Manning's exceptionally good at football and Brady's exceptionally good at cheating. C'mon, Cugel: You've outright said the chance of winning a SB with ANYONE but Manning or Brady is statistically minuscule: By that logic, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson and the rest of the NFC shouldn't even bother showing up!

Well, one of the ONLY two QBs capable of winning a SB's in his forties and retired, with the other soon to join him, so we better just retire the SB itself along with them—it's IMPOSSIBLE for ANYONE to win any more.

I like most of your takes, Cugel, but this kind of dog-with-a-bone action is why we both get so much crap from so many other people. Oz hasn't even been ON this team since we won the SB, so maybe it's time to stop evaluating every QB in terms of whether they were drafted higher/lower than his particular semi-random draft slot.

Originally Posted by Tned

I'm someplace between MO and Wave. Odds are never, but he's intriguing.

Obviously tested off the chart in ESPN science thingy (highly technical term) and was great at ole miss, but there is a reason he was essentially undrafted. What's the Bull Durham line, "million dollar arm, five cent brain" or something like that.

I hope he's healthy at camp and can get meaningful reps at camp and in preseason games (might be hard in games with Siemian/Lynch competition being battled.

Yeah, he certainly is a more intriguing 7th round prospect than most, but even still, the odds of a 7th round QB ever actually starting a game (outside of being forced to play due to injuries) are exceedingly rare. I'd feel pretty safe in betting it never happens.

Originally Posted by Joel

Thanks, I will, because dividing 3/36 and getting 0.008 isn't just "no detailed analysis," it's horribly inaccurate math. As in, "off by two orders of magnitude." Worse, you made me agree with MO:


So 7% of QB drafted in the top 50 reach a SB, and 8% of ALL OTHER QBS do. Sounds like later round QBs offer a good return on investment: Even though there's only ~5X as many of those guys as the ones the draft value chart says are literally 10X better, the late round guys still have a better chance of reaching a SB.

Continually pointing to the mere TWO guys who QBed 63% of the last 16 AFC SB teams "proves" nothing except that Manning's exceptionally good at football and Brady's exceptionally good at cheating. C'mon, Cugel: You've outright said the chance of winning a SB with ANYONE but Manning or Brady is statistically minuscule: By that logic, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson and the rest of the NFC shouldn't even bother showing up!

Well, one of the ONLY two QBs capable of winning a SB's in his forties and retired, with the other soon to join him, so we better just retire the SB itself along with them—it's IMPOSSIBLE for ANYONE to win any more.

I like most of your takes, Cugel, but this kind of dog-with-a-bone action is why we both get so much crap from so many other people. Oz hasn't even been ON this team since we won the SB, so maybe it's time to stop evaluating every QB in terms of whether they were drafted higher/lower than his particular semi-random draft slot.

Reaching a Super Bowl was not the metric I used for "success."

As to the focus of the thread (which ain't Oz:) Kelly will start the INSTANT the China Arena Football League finalizes it's season: Go, Black Rhinos, GO!

Originally Posted by Joel

Worse, you made me agree with MO:

Ok, I got a chuckle out of this.

It's like me saying, "Worse, you made me agree with Wave:"

Originally Posted by BroncoWave

Yeah, he certainly is a more intriguing 7th round prospect than most, but even still, the odds of a 7th round QB ever actually starting a game (outside of being forced to play due to injuries) are exceedingly rare. I'd feel pretty safe in betting it never happens.

Agreed, and then you have to take it to another level. What's the odds that TWO seventh round picks (pick 250 and 253) will start for the Broncos say in a two year period, or serve as starter and backup???

Originally Posted by MOtorboat

Reaching a Super Bowl was not the metric I used for "success."

Ah; that's an important difference.

Originally Posted by Joel

As to the focus of the thread (which ain't Oz Kelly will start the INSTANT the China Arena Football League finalizes it's season: Go, Black Rhinos, GO!

Curious if there was similar declarations for Mr. Relevant, aka Trevor "pick 250" Siemian?

Originally Posted by Tned

Curious if there was similar declarations for Mr. Relevant, aka Trevor "pick 250" Siemian?

Prob'ly not, because Siemian didn't carouse and brawl his way out of premiere college programs until he was lucky to even make the collegiate equivalent of a Class A baseball roster, then only get drafted for the same reason: Because his uncle happens to be a first ballot HoFer with another first ballot HoFer/GM on speed dial.

It's completely different because there were and remain many questions about whether Siemian can play, but none about whether Kelly can: The sole but huge issue is whether he's finally developed the "maturity" to realize his talent and pedigree don't entitle him to indulge his inner hoodlum with impunity now that he can be tried as an adult. Because that kind of thing is nothing but harmless youthful exuberance, y'know? Look how much OJ's grown up since he turned 70....

Originally Posted by Joel

Prob'ly not, because Siemian didn't carouse and brawl his way out of premiere college programs until he was lucky to even make the collegiate equivalent of a Class A baseball roster, then only get drafted for the same reason: Because his uncle happens to be a first ballot HoFer with another first ballot HoFer/GM on speed dial.

It's completely different because there were and remain many questions about whether Siemian can play, but none about whether Kelly can: The sole but huge issue is whether he's finally developed the "maturity" to realize his talent and pedigree don't entitle him to indulge his inner hoodlum with impunity now that he can be tried as an adult. Because that kind of thing is nothing but harmless youthful exuberance, y'know? Look how much OJ's grown up since he turned 70....

Seemed like about three contradictions in those two paragraphs.

All seventh round QBs, undrafted QBs, etc. have many questions, concerns and issues. Health. Ability. Size. Mechanics. Off field. If they didn't have questions, they wouldn't be 6th, 7th or no round picks.

Apparently we now know that Elway is a lying *******, since we now know (based on the post above) that Kelly called Elway and asked for his nephew to be drafted. Glad that's been cleared up. Knew we couldn't trust that Elway to be honest.

Originally Posted by Joel

Prob'ly not, because Siemian didn't carouse and brawl his way out of premiere college programs until he was lucky to even make the collegiate equivalent of a Class A baseball roster, then only get drafted for the same reason: Because his uncle happens to be a first ballot HoFer with another first ballot HoFer/GM on speed dial.

It's completely different because there were and remain many questions about whether Siemian can play, but none about whether Kelly can: The sole but huge issue is whether he's finally developed the "maturity" to realize his talent and pedigree don't entitle him to indulge his inner hoodlum with impunity now that he can be tried as an adult. Because that kind of thing is nothing but harmless youthful exuberance, y'know? Look how much OJ's grown up since he turned 70....

So, um, Ole Miss is not the equivalent of a Class A minor league team. And he wasn't "lucky" to make the roster. He was the best quarterback in the SEC for two seasons. He's got faults, but damn.

What day?

Yester-freakin-day, that's what day